The only other time I might have suggested that a US President was the main market mover was when Donald Trump had his first stint as chief decision maker in the White House. Now he’s again the critical maker or breaker of global stock markets as he prevaricates over what country cops what tariffs.

This week stock markets have defied recent gravitational pulls, following Mr Trump not spooking key share players with new views on future tariffs. In fact, overnight, he said something more positive for stocks than he’s managed since February 14 when his trade war rhetoric went into overdrive. This chart directly below clearly dates all this.

Over that time, the Trump tariffs have helped us lose about 7.3% off our stock market index and for the past 12 months we’re up only 2.07%. Until February 14 we were up close to 12%. So, let’s be mathematical and accept that the new US President has cost many of us about 10% of the wealth we have linked to stocks!

On the subject of Donald and his tariff ‘playthings’, this is what he shared with us:

1. There will be “flexibility” on the reciprocal tariffs due to be outlined on April 2.
2. Though, he seemed to oppose exceptions.
3. He thinks it will lead to many people asking for them.
4. “Once you do that for one, you have to do that for all,” he said.
5. April 2 will be “liberation day” for the USA, when countries slugging US goods will be tariffed.
6. He plans to talk to China’s Xi Jinping over his country’s reciprocal tariffs after the US slapped a broad tariff impost on Chinese goods sold in the States.

Clearly, the overall tone of this presidential communique is not all negative and could be construed as potentially positive. One thing’s for sure it’s definitely confusing!

So, before the close of trade on Wall Street, most US market indexes are down but not by much.

Effectively, the President’s comments fed the uncertainty that has troubled stock players since mid-February, but they are slightly less aggressive. That helped not feed the kind of policy anxiety that has taken global markets down lately.

There is another week before we get to April 2 and that day will be a real maker or breaker for stocks. You can only hope that big end of town CEOs have asked the President to hose down his tariff talk that has rattled stock markets lest it undermine both business and consumer confidence that could turn an expected economic slowdown into a recession.

Until tariff talk came to town, no one was ruling in a possible US recession. So, if it happens, it will be tagged the Trump tariff recession, or the “recession the US did not have to have” (to steal and twist the words of another recession-creator — former Australian Treasurer and PM Paul Keating).

Ahead of April 2 (i.e. Wednesday week, which will hit our stock market on the Thursday), we’ll see a plethora of economic data and events that could be pluses or negatives for stocks.

Globally, Purchasing Manager Indexes (PMIs) will tell us about business decision makers buying, while US consumer confidence will be important, as will the PCE, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator.

On the home front, we get a Federal Budget on Tuesday, then the monthly CPI for February. And all eyes will be on the ‘trimmed mean’ (or underlying inflation reading) that will spark speculation about when we see the next rate cut.

Undoubtedly, if the Budget promises big pre-election spending, then any good news on inflation could be ignored by the RBA, when it considers its next rate cut.

To the local story this week and the S&P/ASX 200 Index was up 141.50 points (or 1.82%) to finish at 7931.20. This was the best market close for the week this year and you can thank a lack of tariff talk for that and helpful rate references from Fed boss Jerome Powell.

This is how AMP’s Shane Oliver saw the week: “Global share markets mostly rebounded over the last week from oversold conditions helped by an absence of new tariff comments from Trump and as the Fed helped calm recession and inflation fears.” The next two weeks with a Budget, inflation data, another RBA meeting on April 1 and the April 2 reciprocal tariff announcements, you have to think stock markets are bound to be volatile and difficult to play.”

To the star and struggler companies that this week gained or lost 5% or more, and here they are:

Reach for the Stars…

1. Boss Energy showed who’s boss, up 20% to $2.88.
2. Woolworths got a tick, rising 7.58% to $29.93.
3. Premier Investments were out of the loo, rising 5.97% to $21.85.
4. Computershare rose 6.53% to $40.65.
5. New Hope showed coal isn’t dead and buried, rising 10.78% to $4.11.

And the Strugglers…

1. Promedicus lost its star status but not by much, off 5.75% to $223.58.
2. Coronado Global Resources copped a credit rating downgrade and a 20.79% slide to $0.40.
3. Spark had another shocker, down 5.47% to $1.82 but it was trading ex-dividend.

What I liked

1. No Trump tariff talk!
2. The Fed predicting rate cuts ahead.
3. On potential US tariffs on pharmaceuticals and beef, Shane Oliver said: “The overall macro impact of this on Australia would likely be minor though as our total exports to the US are less than 1% of our economy and are of a similar value to those exports that were blocked from China in 2020.”
4. After looking at the job numbers and other data Shane Oliver commented: “We still expect the RBA to cut rates again in May and August.”
5. Australia’s population growth slowed to 1.8% year-on-year over the year to the September quarter last year, from a peak of 2.5% year-on-year a year earlier. This was due to a slowing in annual net migration to 380,000 from a record 560,000 a year earlier.
6. Chinese data for January and February showed a slight acceleration in the growth of retail sales, industrial production and investment with property sales and home price falls being less negative than a year ago.

What I didn’t like

1. A pre-election Budget that’s bound to be a spend-fest!
2. Australian jobs data for February provided a confusing picturewith employment down by 52,800 but economists doubted the veracity of these numbers.
3. The OECD revised down its global growth forecasts for this year and next, citing the disruption posed by Trump’s tariffs from 3.3% growth to 3.1%.
4. US economic data this week showed retail sales were weaker than expected in February and point to soft growth in consumer spending this quarter, home builder conditions fell and manufacturing conditions in the New York and Philadelphia regions weakened.

Can’t wait for April 2

This date for the revelation of reciprocal tariffs is bound to be critical to how we play stocks, and while I’m gambling that we’ll see another leg down (only because Donald Trump is so unpredictable), I hope I’m wrong. If I’m not, I will be a buyer on any significant dip because I still think lower interest rates, artificial intelligence, Trump’s deregulation and tax cut promises, as well an improving China over 2025 will underpin a reappearance of the uptrend for stocks.

I guess I’m suggesting this: onwards and possibly downwards before upwards again! And if it was anyone other than Donald J. Trump, I’d be a lot more confident about my predictions.

AMP’s Shane Oliver informed us:

“While the volatility in shares over the last few weeks has caused much excitement so far it’s a bit of a non-event in an historical context. For example US shares had a 10% top to bottom fall but as can be seen in the next chart its hardly unusual”