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Wall Street finished a holiday-shortened week on a high as the Iran peace deal removed an oil-price headwind. Peter Switzer counts five tailwinds versus two headwinds and stays cautiously positive, even as the S&P/ASX 200 slipped on Friday on BHP's potash cost blow-out.
The S&P/ASX 200 jumped 2.07% for the week to 8,804 — the best one-day gain since April — on Trump peace-deal hopes and signs the RBA may have stopped rate rises. US markets were mixed with the NASDAQ off 0.30% and the S&P 500 down 0.04% on the week, despite Friday gains driven by SpaceX's blockbuster IPO debut.
Wall Street's nine-week winning streak ended on a Broadcom-led tech sell-off, with the NASDAQ down 4.18% and the S&P 500 down 2.64% on the week. The S&P/ASX 200 finished down 1.22% as investors rotated into healthcare.
Wall Street is still betting an Iran war resolution will eventuate without tipping the global economy into recession. The market is ordering a TACO and is not expecting a NACHO, and a peace deal ASAP is critically important for stocks.
US stocks were up again as the evidence builds that maybe a peace deal isn't far away.
Is anyone surprised that our market was a loser this week, with the Budget colliding with rising interest rates and the Treasurer telling us our economy is slowing to 1.75% from a previous guess of 2.25%? Throw in the stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz and the bigger question has to be this: how come US markets rose this week?
The prospects of peace have been a positive fillip for stocks this week with oil prices down from recent highs, though our market did get the nervous 'yips' that golfers suffer when they lose confidence in themselves.
Stocks were largely up on Wall Street for Friday's trade, and it followed our local market snapping our worst run of outs — eight days down since 2018. It coincided with a falling oil price despite President Trump standing firm on maintaining the US Navy blockade of Iranian ports.
Another day, another Trump or Iranian headline, and while the main game is the Strait of Hormuz and developments there that take oil prices up or down, what we’ve learnt overnight is that ‘night’ can be a long time between Sydney, Europe and Wall Street in New York City.
Before Friday's trade open, equities were bought on the suspicion that Wall Street had been given inside information that a peace deal between the US and Iran was a chance, and that a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — vital for global oil supply — was close to happening.
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