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It’s been a tricky week for stock players with the tailwinds that have been driving share prices to all-time highs starting to face some countervailing headwinds.
It’s been a tricky week for stock players with the tailwinds that have been driving share prices to all-time highs starting to face some countervailing headwinds.
Wall Street survived and thrived during the month of October, a month that has created some of the greatest crashes of all time: Black Monday of the Great Depression, the 1987 crash and even the biggest down day in the GFC was September 29, which was nearly October! However, we’re not in crash territory unless a hard-to-see black swan shows up.
Last week it was the gripping story of ‘When Albo met Trump’ that captured the stock market’s applause, at least locally. But next week it will be the sequel ‘When Xi met Trump’.
This week, rare earths and cooking oil bans sent stocks up and down. Then bad loans at small US banks started raising question marks over the state of bank balance sheets. It led to this great one liner from JPMorgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon who said: “When you see one cockroach, there are probably more.”
In the words of Dolly Parton, Here We Go Again! This time it’s a tariff threat to China!
The shutdown of US government departments because the Republicans and Democrats can’t agree on future funding has had little impact on stocks, whose indexes had a winning week. However, the gains might have been bigger if there hadn’t been question marks from respected market commentators that AI’s positives are being over-hyped and key stocks have been overbought.
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The Fed’s rate cut and the implied commitment to two more cuts this year have added power to a rally that could have been due to go off the boil. But, then again, there is the promise of AI, which combined with lower US interest rates, keeps stocks irresistible to growth investors. It looks over-the-top but the pluses for stocks still outweigh the negatives, so it looks largely onwards and upwards into 2026.
Disappointing US economic data has underlined the nature of American investors and their commitment to being long stocks, with stocks now on a drive higher on the basis that a rate cut comes next week. It could even be a “jumbo” 50-basis points reduction!
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