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The prospects of peace have been a positive fillip for stocks this week with oil prices down from recent highs, though our market did get the nervous 'yips' that golfers suffer when they lose confidence in themselves.
Stocks were largely up on Wall Street for Friday's trade, and it followed our local market snapping our worst run of outs — eight days down since 2018. It coincided with a falling oil price despite President Trump standing firm on maintaining the US Navy blockade of Iranian ports.
Another day, another Trump or Iranian headline, and while the main game is the Strait of Hormuz and developments there that take oil prices up or down, what we’ve learnt overnight is that ‘night’ can be a long time between Sydney, Europe and Wall Street in New York City.
Before Friday's trade open, equities were bought on the suspicion that Wall Street had been given inside information that a peace deal between the US and Iran was a chance, and that a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — vital for global oil supply — was close to happening.
While the sniff of a ceasefire that could be the entry into a peace deal excited global stock markets, the three big players in this war — Trump, Netanyahu and the Ayatollah — keep making it hard to believe that peace and the Strait of Hormuz open to all are chances any time soon.
While stock markets largely finished in the green last week, the week ahead might not be so positive with the feeling that an April Fool’s joke was played by President Trump when he talked of ending the war even if the Strait of Hormuz was still closed.
Friday Close Change Change % Change Week % Dow Jones 45,166.64 -793.47 -1.43% -2.87% S&P 500 6,368.85 -108.31 -1.67% -3.91% NASDAQ 20,948.36 -459.72 -2.15% -5.24% […]
From the perspective of markets, the best indicator of how this war is going is by checking what has happened to the oil price.
Not a great week for committed investors, with the Iran war with its dual threat of inflation and recession driven by a spiking oil price hot on the heels of an AI anxiety crisis of confidence, hyped up by short-seller hedge funds, all creating the best of conditions for speculators.
President Trump comes with the tag “Expect the unexpected”. While we’ve become used to Trump’s tactics in the world of money and then in the world in general, as an unusual US President, we’re now seeing his unusual behaviour playing out at war!
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