I received a great question from a reader named Alan, who provocatively posed the following: “Peter, I hope you’re going to give us more ideas of what stocks to buy apart from CBA and your target prices”.
This feedback has driven this piece today and permits me to really define what the Switzer Super Report is all about. And one assumption that has to be understood by all subscribers is that super fund investors are not a homogeneous lot.
A tale of two Alans
I suspect Alan wants to buy great stocks at low prices and sell them at high prices and, probably, he isn’t a long-term holder of stocks. On the other hand, he could be a long-term player with a core collection of great income payers but he has an allocation to more speculative plays on the side.
The first Alan is really a punter and could have some great runs and some shockers. Personally, I don’t like to play that game with my SMSF, preferring a strategy of collecting great companies that pay dividends, and buying them on the dips.
I have a colleague I’ve mentioned previously who retired with a portfolio worth about $5 million. He nets about 10% a year on that, meaning he’s on about $500,000 a year. In 2009 his return dropped to about $460,000 but rebounded in 2010. He doesn’t worry about his capital and has an allocation to cash, which he uses as a buffer if he needs it in down market times. I reckon this is a great SMSF plan but he does have a nice balance to play around with.
Back to Al’s letter
But Al, to be fair, since we started the Switzer Super Report, we’ve recommended stocks like Telstra when it was a $2 something stock. And we created a dividend portfolio in December 2011 that was up about 14% by October 2012, with 4% dividends on only half-a-year of distributions. We created the portfolio to return around 7-8% in dividends so the capital gain was great cream.
Over the past 12 months, we’ve given plenty of good recommendations. While some have not saluted the judge, this happens in the stock market punting caper.
Ausdrill is a classic, which Gary Stone of Sharewealth Systems says is now in the right buying zone, which he alluded to a few weeks back.
Stephen Thomas of Bell Potter, whose interview with me should be on the website today, is a big fan of Regis Resources. Being a gold stock, if we see the stock market head up after a fiscal cliff solution, then this could remain a good buy.
Then Peter Morgan, ex-Perpetual and ex-452 Capital has given us a real specky in Chalmers (CHR). He says this could be a winner small cap but concedes three out of his 10 stocks in this category could disappoint, though he does have a bit more faith in this one as a buy and hold.
By the way, Gary Stone’s technical analysis doesn’t give Chalmers the thumbs up but this kind of analysis is based on price momentum and so it needs to see a trend. Morgan’s analysis could be ahead of the trend.
The Buffett play
For those who want safe Buffett-style plays, we have provided them since the newsletter kicked off. Only a few weeks ago Paul Rickard went strong on Telstra again when it was under $4, and at $4.27 he has delivered a winner with a great dividend.
Alan, we have recommended some good hybrid and term deposit plays, but they won’t always be in every newsletter because the opportunity won’t always be there. But over a year we will deliver.
One final point
I have been a strong advocate for stocks since early 2009, when most experts were telling people to run to cash. I was in the vanguard of recommending buying the big four banks and great dividend stocks in 2009.
My opinions are there in print, in Google annals and in video on many servers. I’ve had a good run and hope I can keep it up. But let me assure you, I have a lot of skin in the game and the experts we have in the Switzer Super Report are not only doing it for you, Alan, they’re doing it for me!
Important: This content has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual. It does not constitute formal advice. Consider the appropriateness of the information in regards to your circumstances.