There’s a rally coming, it’s just not yet

Founder and Publisher of the Switzer Report
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The market news for SMSF trustees might not be crash hot at the moment, but here at the Switzer Super Report we have one thing to cheer about – this is our 100th edition. I read our first edition the other day and it was very edifying to see that we started off on the money.

My column warned of the debt challenges in Europe and the US bound to upset markets – August and September were scary months for trustees and investors – but I did dispel arguments that the US would dive into a double-dip recession. I also predicted an end-of-year rally, which happened, and my colleague Paul Rickard made it clear that term deposit interest rates were definitely heading down!

But that’s the past and you are only as good as your last call in this tough game of investing for our financial futures.

Next move

Around the world, Europe remains the thorn in the bull’s hoof that stops it from charging. China is in a slower slowdown than was expected, but I believe the stimulus response – two rate cuts in 30 days as well as other monetary measures – will help the most important economy for world growth avoid a hard landing. I expect by the last quarter of this year we will see positive economic data out of China.

The USA is in a slowdown and company reporting will either add to the current gloom – which is reasonably measured at the moment – or it could sow the seeds for another end-of-year rally in the States. This will be post-US election and the remaining challenge could be the so-called ‘fiscal cliff’ where the Bush tax cuts end. Some spending measures will also automatically end unless Congress relents and permits new measures, which will prevent layoffs and possibly even a recession.

Here I suspect good sense will prevail, but the anxiety about it all remains a roadblock to the eventual big spike in stocks that will happen, probably in 2013. Of course, if we get surprised by eurozone debt bailouts and fiscal union achievements, it could start with the Santa Claus rally I expect this year.

It’s a standoff

Right now we’re in an intriguing stock standoff situation. Volumes are low and so is volatility. Those holding stocks are not keen to sell, but not enthused to buy; news flow is neither great nor really bad, and so we drift down, but then retrace.

My gut feeling tells me the hedge funds, which have been performing badly in the US, are waiting for a big test and earnings season in the US will be their first chance to make money at the expense of long-term investors. The weaker US economy and stronger US dollar, which is up 11% in recent times, could hurt earnings, but this no certainty, only an expectation that could be proved wrong.

Helping this unwillingness to selloff is the hope by many that the US Federal Reserve will invoke a third quantitative easing stimulus package (QE3), which would rekindle the flame to make US stocks hot again. However, I have always hoped – and so has the Fed boss Ben Bernanke – that the US economy would recover without it.

My tip

So if eurozone leaders, US Congress, US voters and the Chinese economy all follow the optimists’ script, then we are off to the races by around Cup time – that is, November – but between now and then I’m tipping this kind of market madness.

That said, I will see any big sell down (and September is the worst month for the Yanks while October is our’s) as a buying opportunity.

This has been my story for four years; when others are fearful, I am greedy for great companies paying nice dividends — and I am sticking to it.

(PS: Resource stocks such as BHP Billiton at $31 are a great buy for someone who is in this investing caper for the long-term, but as it is not a great dividend play, it looks like a more speculative punt. If only all punts could be as reliable as this company over the long term! That’s the speculation I like.)

Important information: This content has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual. It does not constitute formal advice. Anyone should consider the appropriateness of the information in regards to their circumstances.

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