Australia’s jobs market is likely to have weakened in April, partly reversing a sharp rise in employment in March, economists’ say.
AAP’s survey of 15 economists on Wednesday revealed a median forecast for unemployment to have risen to 5.3 per cent in April, from 5.2 per cent in March.
Total employment is expected to have fallen by 5,000 in the month.
The participation rate, the percentage of people in work or looking for work, is expected to be 65.4, the same as the previous month.
St George chief economist Hans Kunnen said a fall in employment is likely in April to counteract a surprise rise of 44,000 in March.
“Last month’s (March) rise was way above trend and driving the streets of Sydney, Brisbane and Victoria, you don’t get the feeling that that kind of growth is sustainable,” he said.
“We’re expecting it to return to something closer to trend.”
Bank of America Merrill Lynch Australia chief economist Saul Eslake was also expecting a fall in employment but said that, because Australia lacked the depth of data available in the US, it was difficult to forecast jobs numbers.
“Despite what anyone says to you there is absolutely no science in anyone’s forecasts of these numbers,” he said.
“This year it has been a case of: `if there was a big increase last month it must be a big decrease this month’.
“This survey is volatile at the best of times but it has been particularly volatile since December last year.”
CommSec economist Savanth Sebastian said weakness in various parts of the economy would show up in the labour force data.
“There is an array of sectors which are finding things very difficult, and while we may have had a rate cut come through, it’s not really going to help,” he said.
“There has been a pick up in job advertisements in the last few months, but it’s going to take a significant improvement in the economy to see a justifiable turnaround.”
However, others, like Deutsche Bank chief economist Adam Boyton were more optimistic in their forecasts.
Mr Boyton said the timing of the Easter holiday this year would provide a boost for the jobs data.
“The floating holidays like Easter are very difficult to seasonally adjust, and when we go back and look at years when Easter falls similarly to this year, typically you find a robust employment report in April,” he said.
