A preview of next week’s Australian economic data, November 28 to December 2:
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HOUSING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION (HIA) NEW HOME SALES
Due: Tuesday
Period: October
Market forecast: No market forecast
Last result: New home sales have declined in September, with detached house sales falling to their lowest point in eleven years, according to the Housing Industry Association.
A survey of Australia’s major residential builders showed a 3.5 per cent fall in the number of new homes sold in September, with a 14 per cent decrease in the September quarter.
HIA acting chief economist Andrew Harvey says the softer figures should provide an impetus for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates when it meets on Tuesday.
Detached house sales fell by 3.3 per cent in September, for a fall of 15.3 per cent over the September quarter.
Sales of multi-units fell by 5.5 per cent in the month.
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AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS (ABS) PRIVATE NEW CAPITAL EXPENDITURE AND EXPECTED EXPENDITURE
Due: Wednesday
Period: September quarter 2011
Market forecast: Rise of 8 per cent quarter on quarter
Last result: New private capital expenditure rose 4.9 per cent in real terms, seasonally adjusted, in the June quarter, the ABS said.
The median market forecast was for a rise of 4.0 per cent in the June quarter.
The seventh and final estimate of expenditure for 2010/11 is $119.747 billion, which is 11.8 per cent higher than the seventh and final estimate for 2009/10.
The third estimate of expenditure for 2011/12 is $148.756 billion, which is 18.5 per cent higher than the third estimate for 2010/11.
Estimates are gathered in a series of seven quarterly surveys, the first in January and February before the start of the financial year in July, and the seventh immediately after the financial year ends.
Total expected* investment for the year (ORIGINAL)
Actual** Actual Expected
CURRENT PRICES ($ bln) 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
Buildings/structures $51.913 bln $66.127 bln $98.565 bln
Equipment/plant $55.191 bln $53.620 bln $50.191 bln
TOTAL $107.105 bln $119.747 bln $148.756 bln
*Note that final outcomes usually exceed initial projections
**Revised
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AUSTRALIAN OFFICE OF FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT TO ISSUE TREASURY BONDS
Due: Wednesday
A tender for the issue of $700 million of the April 2023 Bond line is planned.
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ABS RETAIL TRADE
Due: Thursday
Period: October
Market forecast: Rise of 0.4 per cent month on month.
Last result: Retail spending rose 0.4 per cent in September, as expected by economists, according to official figures.
Retail trade rose in the month to a seasonally adjusted $20.912 billion, compared to an upwardly revised $20.821 billion in August, the ABS said.
The bureau also reported that retail spending was up 0.6 per cent in the September quarter, in seasonally adjusted volume terms.
Economists’ forecasts had centred on a 0.4 per cent rise in retail sales in the month of September and a 0.6 rise in the quarter.
RETAIL TURNOVER, current prices (month)
Seasonally adjusted Sept Aug Year ago
$ billion 20.912 20.821 20.437
Monthly pct change 0.4 0.6 0.2
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ABS BUILDING APPROVALS
Due: Thursday
Period: October
Market forecast: Rise of 3 per cent
Last result: Australian residential building approvals fell 13.6 per cent to 11,889 units in September, seasonally adjusted.
This compares to a downwardly revised 13,758 units in August.
In the year to September, building approvals were down 12.0 per cent, the ABS said.
Economists’ forecasts had centred on a five per cent fall in approvals in September.
BUILDING APPROVALS (adjusted)
Sept Aug Year ago
Total dwellings 11,889 13,758 13,509
Priv excluding houses 4,080 6,004 5,030
Priv sector houses 7,809 7,754 8,479
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AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP/PRICEWATERHOUSE PERFORMANCE OF MANUFACTURING (PMI) INDEX
Due: Thursday
Period: November
Market forecast: No market forecast
Last result: Australian manufacturing activity contracted at a slower pace in October but is still suffering from the effects of a strong Australian dollar and cheap imports, a survey shows.
The Australian Industry Group/PriceWaterhouseCoopers Australian Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) rose 5.1 points in October to 47.4.
Readings below 50 indicate contraction in activity.
Declines in activity were largest in the clothing and footwear sub-sector and sub-sectors linked to the construction industry.
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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA (RBA) INDEX OF COMMODITY PRICES
Due: Thursday
Period: November
Market forecast: No Market forecast.
Last result: Australia’s export commodity prices fell in October, the second consecutive drop from a record high in August.
The RBA’s index of commodity prices fell by 3.9 per cent in terms of special drawing rights (SDRs)*, after edging back by 1.4 per cent September, according to preliminary estimates from the central bank.
The RBA said the largest contributors to the fall in October were lower estimated coking coal and iron ore prices, reflecting weaker spot markets and a drop in contract prices.
*The value of the SDR is calculated by the International Monetary Fund on the basis of a weighted basket of four currencies – US dollar, euro, Japanese yen, and pound.
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AUSTRALIAN OFFICE OF FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT TO ISSUE TREASURY NOTES
Due: Thursday
A tender for the issue of $500 million of Treasury Notes maturing on 24 February 2012 is planned.
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AUSTRALIAN OFFICE OF FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT TO ISSUE TREASURY BONDS
Due: Friday
A tender for the issue of $700 million of the October 2015 Bond line is planned.
