At the mid point of reporting season, for the week ending Friday, August 15, 2025, FNArena tracked eleven upgrades and fourteen downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.
The tables reflect earnings ‘beats’ for LGI, Life360, and Pro Medicus, along with ‘misses’ for AGL Energy, Treasury Wine Estates, and Vista International.
Releasing disappointing numbers and then seeing the share price selling off can ultimately have a positive impact on ratings. AGL Energy received upgrades from two separate brokers but Beach Energy and Treasury Wine Estates received two downgrades apiece.
After cutting respective targets for AGL Energy to $11 from $12 and to $10.65 from $11.50, Ord Minnett and UBS upgraded their ratings to Buy from Hold (or equivalent) on valuation (cheaper share price).
UBS also highlighted an attractive fully franked yield along with the underlying defensive utility exposure, leveraged to energy transition upside via higher electricity demand and prices.
Ord Minnett conceded near-term earnings are pressured by higher costs, but the longer-term outlook has improved with clearer visibility on coal and gas contract rollovers and a stronger-than-expected contribution from Battery Energy Storage System operations, though execution risk remains.
For Beach Energy, Macquarie noted M&A capacity is now constrained by a negative FY26 free cash flow outlook with gearing expected to rise to around 17%. Morgans also cautioned the company has been hurt by poor execution from its Waitsia partner Mitsui and its contractors, and warns this risk will persist even after production begins.
For Treasury Wine Estates, Citi felt market expectations for growth in China will have to be scaled back. Citi also reminded investors industry research over the year had already led this broker to become more cautious on management’s ability to deliver its Penfolds guidance for the years ahead.
Management will proceed with a buyback of up $200m, but Morgan Stanley noted this level was lower than prior expectations, likely due to caution on the balance sheet.
JB Hi-Fi received no less than three ratings upgrades after FY25 results exceeded market expectations.
Another notable move in the tables below concerns the 33% rise in average target for Coronado Global Resources in contradiction to its interim result disappointing against market expectations. The general view is the future looks brighter.
The key takeaway for UBS were the breakeven earnings achieved in the second quarter, highlighting the potential for more sustainable earnings in the December half. It’s also felt the June half showed encouraging signs of discipline on costs, capex, and project execution.
Bell Potter agreed operational performance is set to lift with the ramp-up of Mammoth underground and the Buchanan expansion projects, supporting production volumes and lower unit costs.
When it comes to rises in average earnings forecasts, increases generally outweigh declines, but we’re no longer comparing apples with apples, as some of the upward revisions stem from brokers rolling forward their financial models to FY26 forecasts (companies having released FY25 financials).
Temple & Webster heads up the earnings upgrade table and continues to gain market share, but equally faces valuation headwinds.
Sell-rated UBS views its valuation as extreme, yet sees limited potential negative catalysts to disrupt the company’s current top-line momentum.
By contrast, Morgan Stanley highlighted improving consumer sentiment and noted management is investing for growth, with lowest price, fastest delivery, and widest range creating a compelling value proposition.
Next up on the positive change to earnings table are lithium miners IGO Ltd and Pilbara Minerals with increases in average FY25 forecast earnings of 57% and 47%, respectively.
Citi explained the world’s largest manufacturer of lithium-ion batteries, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co (CATL), has suspended production at its Jiangxi lithium mine for three months.
This news prompted UBS to raise its forecast spodumene SC6 CFR China prices for 2025-2028 by 17%, 27%, 27%, and 16%, respectively, to US$838/US$950/US$1050 and US$1,100/t, respectively, against the spot price of US$820/t.
As a result, this broker’s respective targets for IGO Ltd and Pilbara Minerals jumped by 33% and 45% to $4.80 and $1.60.
On implied pricing, the analysts at Citi point out IGO Ltd is trading as if lithium were around US$1300/t versus spot at circa US$825/t, while Pilbara Minerals is trading as if lithium were around US$1200/t.
Citi’s preferred ASX100 exposure is Neutral-rated Pilbara Minerals, while Patriot Battery Metals ((PMT)) is rated Buy among small caps.
Also receiving a boost to average earnings forecast is Neuren Pharmaceuticals.
Neuren’s commercial partner Acadia, in its second quarter update, reported continued volume and sales growth for Daybue in the US market, with European expansion still on track for 2026.
The royalty stream from this first and only FDA-approved treatment for Rett syndrome is an increasingly stable and growing source of income, with Bell Potter estimating this is worth around $9.00 per share in discounted present value terms.
In the good books
Upgrades
AGL ENERGY LIMITED ((AGL)) was upgraded to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett and to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 4/1/0
Ord Minnett notes AGL Energy’s FY25 earnings fell short of its estimate by -5% and the consensus by -7%, impacted by outages at two power stations.
FY26 guidance was also a disappointment, falling short of the consensus by -3% on EBITDA and by -11% on net profit.
The company highlighted contribution from battery storage systems will offset oil and gas contract rollovers in FY28, but the broker expects net profit impact to be minimal.
Overall, a -18.8% cut to the broker’s FY26 EPS forecast and a -21.3% cut to FY27, with FY28 seeing a tiny 0.6% lift.
Target cut to $11 from $12. Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold on valuation.
AGL Energy’s soft FY25 report has put the share price under pressure, but UBS is suggesting the market is too short-sighted. At the current price margin compression is being accounted for, but not the EPS upside longer term. Hence, the broker has upgraded to Buy from Neutral.
UBS argues cheap legacy gas and coal supply contracts expiring and being replaced with higher cost fuels is now factored in, but this impact can be entirely overwhelmed by new earnings from accelerated investment in grid-scale batteries.
For now, forecasts have been reduced, with negatives (see also above) partially offset by a higher electricity pricing outlook. Target drops to $10.65 from $11.50.
Origin Energy ((ORG)) is the broker’s sector favourite, with APA Group ((APA)) least preferred. AGL Energy sits in between.
ARB CORPORATION LIMITED ((ARB)) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 5/1/0
UBS upgraded ARB Corp to Neutral from Sell on moderation in the downside risk underlying its previous Sell rating.
The renewed assessment follows a re-basing of forward margin expectations, stabilisation in domestic new vehicle sales, and higher US cost investment.
The broker notes profit before tax (PBT) margins have been cut to 18.9% from 20.8% over the last 12 months, and medium-term consensus pre-tax profit is now -12% lower.
The broker’s FY25 PBT forecast is -5% below the consensus and for FY26 it is -8% below. Target lifted to $35 from $31 on higher valuation multiple.
DEXUS INDUSTRIA REIT ((DXI)) was upgraded to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 3/0/0
Dexus Industria REIT reported a slight beat on funds from operations at 18.2c for FY25, some 0.5% above Bell Potter’s estimate and 1.5% above consensus.
FY26 guidance was set at 17.3c funds from operations, below both the analyst and consensus expectations by around -6%, with a dividend guidance of 16.6c.
Bell Potter lowers its funds from operations estimates by -8% for FY26 to -5% for FY28 due to dilution from the sale of Brisbane Technology Park, an updated bank bill swap rate assumption, and the impact of recent half-year earnings.
Due to the stock’s relative underperformance versus the XJP REIT index, Dexus Industria is upgraded to Buy from Hold. The target is lifted to $3.10 from $2.95.
JB HI-FI LIMITED ((JBH)) was upgraded to Trim from Sell by Morgans and to Neutral from Sell by UBS and to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/1/1
JB Hi-Fi’s FY25 result was broadly in line with Morgans’ expectations, with underlying profit up 8.5% to $476.1m. Share price weakness in reaction reflects high expectations after a strong run-up.
Fourth-quarter sales in JB Hi-Fi Australia were boosted by the Nintendo Switch 2 launch, explain the analysts, with similar momentum in New Zealand and solid growth at The Good Guys. Less positively, the broker notes July trading showed some slowing.
Gross margins were stable overall, with The Good Guys delivering a standout 2H improvement, and costs were well managed, according to Morgans.
The payout ratio will rise from 65% to 70–80% from FY26, likely ending special dividends, suggests the broker, after a strong year of cash generation and a 100c final special dividend.
Morgans raises its target price to $95 from $92. While noting the business is fully valued, the broker upgrades its rating to Trim from Sell.
UBS upgrades JB Hi-Fi to Neutral from Sell, with a higher target price of $112 from $109.
The analyst attributes the fall in the share price of -8.4% on the FY25 results to confusion around reported earnings, including the ACCC cost of -$13.7m not reflected in market estimates. Underlying earnings came in above both consensus and the analyst’s estimate.
Growth in like-for-like sales in July for both JB Australia and The Good Guys needs to come in above the two-year average to achieve 1H26 consensus expectations, which UBS believes the company can achieve.
The CEO transition was announced earlier than expected. Equally, the share price has advanced 27% in 2025 versus the ASX200, which was up 8% up until August 8.
The analyst raises its EPS forecast by 1% for FY26 and 2% for FY27.
The highlight of JB Hi-Fi’s FY25 result for Macquarie was the special dividend of 100c which beat its 80c estimate. The broker reckons the increase in payout ratio to 70-80% from 65% is a prudent move given cash generation and balance sheet strength.
FY25 result broadly met the broker’s forecast and was 1% higher than the consensus. Trading details for 4Q and update for July showed solid growth was maintained after the outsized 8.2% y/y growth in 4Q boosted by Nintendo Switch 2 pre-orders.
The broker lifted medium-term sales forecast to an average 5% growth over the next three years. EPS forecasts lifted by up to 2% over FY26-28.
Target lifted to $118 from $112. Rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.
LIFE360 INC ((360)) was upgraded to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 5/0/0
Ord Minnett upgrades Life360 to Accumulate from Hold and raises the target price to $45 from $39, post the company’s better than expected 2Q2025 earnings results and an upgrade in 2025 guidance.
Monthly average users growth came in above consensus growth expectations, with additional margin expansion. The platform has around 88m customers globally, of which the US market represents 47.5m and 40.5m internationally, with circa 3.1m in Australasia.
The analyst believes there is a lot more left in the Life360 “tank” in spite of the earnings upgrade, and 2H2025 guidance errs on the conservative side.
Recent growth rates in paying customers, annual monthly recurring revenue, and average revenue per paying circle infer FY26 revenue could exceed US$600m.
Ord Minnett upgrades its EPS estimates by 21.7% for 2025 and 22% for 2026.
NICK SCALI LIMITED ((NCK)) was upgraded to Lighten from Sell by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/0/0
Nick Scali’s FY25 result largely met expectations with Ord Minnett explaining a strong performance in Australasia was offset by a big miss on revenue and higher losses in the UK operation.
Ord Minnett expects strong Australasian June quarter sales and written order growth to boost FY26 earnings, implementing significant upgrades to earnings forecasts. However, most of it was offset by higher loss forecasts for the UK.
EPS forecasts for FY26-27 lifted by 1.8% and 1.5%, respectively. Target rises to $18 from $16 (was $14.50 in February). Rating upgraded to Lighten from Sell.
SANTOS LIMITED ((STO)) was upgraded to Accumulate from Trim by Morgans .B/H/S: 5/1/0
Morgans has updated its estimates across its Oil & Gas sector coverage following 2Q results and ahead of 1H releases.
The broker maintains a Neutral sector stance, noting spot Brent and JKM are trading only slightly below base-case ranges despite re-rated sector equities.
With market valuations recovering even as Brent prices soften, the broker believes much of the ‘easy money’ in the sector has already been made.
Morgans raises its target for Santos to $8.65 from $6.80 and double-upgrades to Accumulate from Trim. The analyst explains the active offer remains a unique case, with the ADNOC consortium still highly motivated two months into due diligence and negotiations.
The broker’s confidence in Treasurer/FIRB approval has improved, viewing Santos’ balance sheet and gas reserve constraints as reasons for government support of a deep-pocketed acquirer able to boost domestic gas supply.
In the bad books
Downgrades
APA GROUP ((APA)) was downgraded to Sell from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 2/1/1
UBS has decided to downgrade APA Group to Sell from Neutral. Motivation: the shares have re-rated of late while nothing fundamentally has changed to the funding challenges the pipeline operator is facing.
The broker does acknowledge APA has considerable greenfield growth opportunities, but counters the current track record justifies a more cautious outlook for new assets.
Small amendments have been made to estimates and modelling. Target price has gained 50c to $7.50.
BEACH ENERGY LIMITED ((BPT)) was downgraded to Trim from Hold by Morgans and to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/3/3
Morgans has updated its estimates across its Oil & Gas sector coverage following 2Q results and ahead of 1H releases.
Morgans keeps its $1.16 target for Beach Energy. While the stock has underperformed with an 8% gain since April, the analyst still downgrades to Trim from Hold.
The broker cautions that the company has been hurt by poor execution from its Waitsia partner Mitsui and its contractors, and warns this risk will persist even after production begins.
Following FY25 results over a week ago, Macquarie cuts its target price for Beach Energy to 95c from $1.35. The broker’s rating is also downgraded to Underperform from Neutral on lower reserves, reduced production guidance and higher capex/restoration costs.
FY26 production guidance of 19.7-22.0mmboe disappointed, driven by Otway reservoir decline, Western Flank oil flood impacts and a later Waitsia start-up, explains the analyst.
Reserves were cut by -6.5% of FY24 2P, mainly at Beharra Springs Deep following poor drilling results, prompting a more conservative Waitsia forecast by Macquarie.
The broker’s EPS forecasts fall -35% and -37% for FY26 and FY27, respectively, on lower output from Waitsia LNG, Otway gas and Western Flank oil.
Macquarie notes M&A capacity is now constrained by a negative FY26 free cash flow outlook and gearing is expected to rise to around 17%.
The final 6c dividend was ahead of the analyst’s expectations but is seen as unsustainable in the near term.
BRAVURA SOLUTIONS LIMITED ((BVS)) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/1/0
Bravura Solutions’ FY25 revenue came in around 3% above guidance and earnings (EBITDA) around 6% ahead, helped by currency, UK R&D incentives, and stronger professional services, explains Macquarie.
FY26 guidance is for flat revenue despite a -4.5% attrition headwind, notes the broker, with cash earnings expected to exceed $50m (versus $43.8m in FY25), implying at least a -3% opex reduction.
Customer exits from both FY25 and prior years will weigh on revenue, suggests Macquarie, though existing clients, cross-sell, and some new wins should offset.
The broker’s EPS forecasts rise 27–32% for FY26–27, but the broker cuts its long-term growth assumption due to client attrition risk and growth contribution from cost out.
The target price falls to $2.03 from $3.17. Macquarie also downgrades to Neutral from Outperform.
CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES INC ((CRN)) was downgraded to Sell from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 0/3/2
UBS downgrades Coronado Global Resources to Sell from Neutral after considering the updated cost, volume, and capex assumptions post 1H25 results, where the miner reported a loss of -US$73m for earnings (EBITDA), which met expectations.
The analyst was encouraged by cost discipline in the June half, with production rising and expected to lift again in 2H25 with the ramp-up of Mammoth and Buchanan.
UBS estimates Coronado will remain EPS-negative until 2026, with scope for asset sales and the ability to find funding risks to the stock.
Current liquidity suffices for the next 6–12 months, but a further circa US$225m may need to be secured, the report suggests.
Target moves to 26c from 17c.
DALRYMPLE BAY INFRASTRUCTURE LIMITED ((DBI)) was downgraded to Hold from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/1/0
Morgans downgrades its rating for Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure to Hold from Accumulate following a 32% share price rise since major shareholder Brookfield Infrastructure Partners sold a 23% stake in June for $3.72.
The broker notes buying pressure is likely linked to Dalrymple’s expected inclusion in the ASX200 at the September rebalance. Further support is possible if Brookfield sells its remaining 26% stake when escrow expires in December, suggests the analyst.
While near-term earnings are highly predictable, Morgans remains cautious on long-term cashflow longevity given potential metallurgical coal substitution risks.
The broker lifts its target price to $4.70 from $4.35 on a valuation roll-forward and a higher terminal multiple, with no changes to forecasts.
IRESS LIMITED ((IRE)) was downgraded to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/0/0
Iress’ 1H25 underlying EBITDA and net profit were broadly in line with Morgans’ forecasts while the 11c interim dividend was higher than expected.
Continuing operations EBITDA was impacted by investment costs and cash flow was weaker, but on the brighter side the outlook was mostly in line. FY25 EBITDA guidance was reaffirmed at $127-135m, and the broker’s updated forecast is $129.8m.
Overall, the broker reckons the company is set up well for reasonable growth during an investment phase, with potential takeover interest providing an additional risk/reward lever.
Target price cut to $9.69 from $10.50, though the broker sees over $10.50 as more appropriate in a takeover scenario. Rating downgraded to Accumulate from Buy.
KAROON ENERGY LIMITED ((KAR)) was downgraded to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/2/0
Morgans has updated its estimates across its Oil & Gas sector coverage following 2Q results and ahead of 1H releases.
The broker’s target for Karoon Energy falls to $2.05 from $2.25 and the rating is downgraded to Accumulate from Buy.
MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED ((MIN)) was downgraded to Sell from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 3/2/2
UBS downgrades Mineral Resources to Sell from Neutral on mild valuation grounds.
The June quarter update presented several positives for the company, including improved governance, a decline in net debt to $5.3bn at end of FY25, and mining services expected to achieve the bottom end of guidance at 84mt.
Onslow 1Q26 volumes are around 35mtpa, and Wodgina saw robust June quarter shipments with FY25 costs at the midpoint of guidance. Mt Marion June quarter shipments were also strong, with FY25 costs at the low end of guidance.
With an upgraded lithium price forecast and a better June quarter result, the analyst increases the FY26 EPS forecast by 36%.
The target price is raised to $37.40 from a decline in the weighted average cost of capital assumption to 9.3% from 10.3%, due to a lower cost of debt on Mineral Resources’ bonds and upgraded earnings.
MONADELPHOUS GROUP LIMITED ((MND)) was downgraded to Sell from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 2/2/1
Bell Potter downgrades Monadelphous Group to Sell from Hold, with the target price set at $16.50 from $16.20, as the stock price is considered overvalued at current levels, with most of the gains underpinned by multiple expansion (valuation), and now sits around peak-cycle value.
The broker flags revenue growth of 8% for FY25, which is in line with the company’s outlook, and earnings (EBITDA) margin to rise to 7.2% by 88bps. Contracts awarded for July have come in over $210m, higher by 5% over last year.
Bell Potter lifts its forecast gross margin for FY26 by 10bps to 9.4%. No change to FY25 EPS estimate, FY26/FY27 forecast EPS rises by 3% in both years.
MEGAPORT LIMITED ((MP1)) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 2/3/1
Citi raises its target for Megaport to $15.95 from $9.00 and downgrades to Neutral from Buy.
The analysts raise their FY25-27 revenue forecasts by 2-8%, citing stronger cloud migration activity, expanding data centre footprint, product investment, and potential AI-driven demand from FY27.
The broker sees multiple tailwinds, including multi-cloud adoption, new product rollouts, share gains from PacketFabric, and the closure of Telstra Group’s ((TLS)) Programmable Network.
While AI is expected to drive growth from FY27, Citi lowers its FY25-26 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by -5% due to anticipated higher investment needs.
Hiring activity is rising, caution the analysts, with headcount up 27% and job listings at their highest since January 2023, suggesting upside risk to operating cost forecasts.
TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED ((TWE)) was downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley and to Sell from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 2/3/1
The key takeaway for Morgan Stanley from Treasury Wine Estates’ FY25 results was commentary pointing to another challenging year in FY26. The result itself was in line with guidance.
The move to a new divisional operating model is expected to impact Treasury Americas’ (TA) net sales revenue by -$50m, but the impact on EBITS is expected to be mitigated by cost cuts and negotiations with previous distribution partner.
With no offsets likely in FY27, the broker sees the impact in that year. Overall EBITS for TA is forecast to be flat in FY26 and down -2% in FY27.
In case of Penfolds, the company pointed to softness in June/July due to shifts in consumption trends. As a result, the broker is now more conservative about Penfolds’ growth expectations.
The broker cut FY25 EPS forecast by -4.3% and FY27 by -2.0%. The revisions were driven by effective downgrade to Penfolds outlook, lower revenue base for TA, interest rate forecast changes, additional corporate costs and $200m expected share buyback.
Target cut to $8.70 from $10.75. Rating downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight. Industry View: In-Line.
Post the FY25 result, Citi has become more cautious on the outlook for both the US and China, with Treasury Wine Estates copping a downgrade to Sell from Neutral.
The shroud of uncertainty is not expected to lift over FY26, with downside risks seen to Penfolds guidance over FY26/FY27.
The new CEO starts Oct 27, and for the analyst to become more upbeat, some evidence of better momentum in the US is needed, as well as whether the company can offset challenging headwinds in China.
Target drops to $7 from $8.50.
WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED ((WDS)) was downgraded to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/5/0
Morgans has updated its estimates across its Oil & Gas sector coverage following 2Q results and ahead of 1H releases.
The analyst lowers the target for Woodside Energy by -$1.00 to $30.10 after modestly trimming opex assumptions following a solid 2Q, while keeping interim dividend estimate roughly steady at US$0.52 per share. The rating is downgraded to Accumulate from Buy.
Earnings forecast
Listed below are the companies that have had their forecast current year earnings raised or lowered by the brokers last week. The qualification is that the stock must be covered by at least two brokers. The table shows the previous forecast on an earnings per share basis, the new forecast, and the percentage change.
