Buy, Hold, Sell – what the brokers say

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Domain Holdings (DHG) was upgraded to Hold from Sell by Deutsche Bank and to Buy from Sell by UBS Buy/Hold/Sell: 2/3/2. Deutsche Bank had initiated with a Sell in November last year, but after share price weakness following the sudden departure of the CEO, the broker thinks it is time for an upgrade to Hold. CEO Antony Catalano unexpectedly resigned, citing family commitments and difficulties with relocating to Sydney. The price target has remained $3.35. Deutsche Bank analysts acknowledge the immediate outlook is now clouded with uncertainty, but they also believe this is now well and truly reflected in the share price. Even if the risk to forward growth has increased UBS also believes the uncertainty is more than priced in and upgrades to Buy from Sell. Target is $3.20.

Lend Lease (LLC) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie Buy/Hold/Sell: 3/3/0. Macquarie believes the pending construction issues are now, at least partly, factored into the share price. The broker also retains more confidence in the sources of other profits. Target is $17.63.

Nine Entertainment Company Holdings (NEC) was upgraded to Buy from Hold by Deutsche Bank Buy/Hold/Sell: 3/2/1. Deutsche Bank now forecasts marginal growth in the metro TV market in FY18. Some of the momentum seen in the first half should continue into the second half, driven by advertising revenue linked to the Commonwealth Games and greater monetisation by Nine Entertainment of some of its better-performing 2017 programs. Target is raised $1.80 from $1.50.

QBE Insurance Group (QBE) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie and to Acculate from Hold by Ord Minnett Buy/Hold/Sell: 4/2/2. New management has re-based margin guidance for 2018. Heading into the February results, Macquarie believes the buyback, premium growth and portfolio sales will remain the focus for investors. The target reduced to $11.10 from $11.70. Ord Minnett has lifted its price target to $11.20 from $10.95. Ord Minnett whitelabels research by JP Morgan, which justifies its upgrade via a reference to the guidance rebasing, in combination with expected upside from the cycle and interest rates, plus possible benefits to margins from a restructure.

Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral Buy/Hold/Sell: 3/1/2. UBS believes the company has the opportunity to accelerate both value and volume share in China over the next 3-5 years. Asia is expected to become the largest contributor to operating earnings by FY19. The broker’s analysis shows that the company’s brands are materially under penetrated but rate highly among wine consumers. Target is raised to $17.30 from $13.00.

Sydney Airport Holdings (SYD) was upgraded to Add from Hold by Morgans Buy/Hold/Sell: 3/2/1. December passenger numbers showed strong international growth and Morgans expects 11% growth in net operating receipts in 2017. Over the next three years the broker expects 6% per annum compound growth in cash flows. Target is raised to $7.14 from $7.11.

Whitehaven Coal (WHC) was upgraded to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie Buy/Hold/Sell: 3/3/2. Incorporating significant changes to bulk commodity price forecasts, Macquarie upgrades and raises target to $4.40 from $3.90. The broker lifts 2018 forecasts for coking coal by 40% and thermal coal by 30%.

In the not-so-good books

Commonwealth Bank (CBA) was downgraded to Sell from Neutral by Citi Buy/Hold/Sell: 0/6/2.

The price target was lowered to $72 from $76.75. The analysts justify their decision with the assessment that CBA is facing a decline in balance sheet momentum combined with rising compliance and remediation costs. Examining previous crises suggests the CBA share price remains poised for a period of underperformance, according to Citi.

Resmed (RMD) was downgraded to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie Buy/Hold/Sell: 4/2/1. Revenue of US$601 million was 4% ahead of Macquarie’s forecasts in the second quarter. This was driven by stronger device sales in the Americas. Globally, masks and accessories were robust. However, Macquarie finds limited appeal relative to domestic healthcare peers and downgrades to Underperform from Neutral. Target is raised to $11.80 from $11.65.

The above was compiled from FN Arena. The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stock brokers: Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett and UBS.

Important: This content has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual. It does not constitute formal advice. Consider the appropriateness of the information in regards to your circumstances.

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