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Weekly Broker Wrap: Downgrades and Upgrades in Balance
Stockbroking analysts remain focused on whether Australian banks are too expensive, or not. Another theme that continues to split the community is whether investors should finally go overweight resources stocks and underweight banks, or whether it still is too early for the switch?
For the first time in a month and a half, downgrades did not outpace upgrades, both sides coming out even at nine apiece. Another difference from recent reports was that both upgrades and downgrades were spread across sectors.
Upgrades
Alacer Gold ((AQG)) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight by JP Morgan. JP Morgan conducted a review of metal price forecasts and adjusted for a lower Australian dollar. While the magnitude of price revisions generally outweighed the benefit of the weaker Australian dollar, in the case of Alacer, the share price has fallen materially and was sitting below the price target.
Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL)) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie. A combination of updated currency assumptions, some minor adjustments to operational assumptions and updated Product Madness forecasts combined to see Macquarie lift FY13-15 earnings forecasts by 4%-6%. The currency changes combined with recent research conducted by the broker into the future of social and online gaming also helped to push the price target higher. Longer term optimism via social and online helped the upgrade. Macquarie said that while competition remains intense in traditional markets and the valuation is still a way from being attractive, there is share price support in the form of a strengthening USD, upcoming capital management and ongoing positive news flow regarding online gaming in the US.
The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stock brokers: BA-Merrill Lynch, CIMB, Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan, Macquarie and UBS.
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