The broker wrap – JB Hi-Fi and Toll among downgrades, which outnumbered upgrades 2:1

Founder of FNArena
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Securities analysts and investment strategists have started to look forward into the February reporting season in Australia. Views and expectations diverge as to what should be expected but it appears nobody is expecting much in terms of positive surprises.

The all-important question then becomes: how is a non-exciting reporting season going to affect a share market that is up 5% for the year already?

We will all find out in the four weeks to come. When it comes to ratings for individual stocks, downgrades outnumbered upgrades by more than 2:1 in the week past. Interestingly, many of those downgrades have been inspired by share prices running up too high for what is likely to be in store in the short to medium term.

Upgrades

Last week, CIMB lifted Automotive Holdings (AHE) to Buy from Hold, seeing the company as being well placed in 2013 with earnings risk to the upside, while also noting the potential for corporate action over AP Eagers’ (APE) 18.6% stake is an additional sweetener. Sentiment remains quite high for the stock in the FNArena Database, with three Buys and just one Hold on record, and this is despite the current share price trading 4% higher than the consensus target.

UBS made two changes to the upside last week, upgrading both Downer EDI (DOW) and Drillsearch (DLS) to Buy from Hold. Downer gets the nod on the broker’s increased confidence about FY13 guidance and the view that operational risks surrounding the Waratah train project are diminishing. The upgrade leaves Downer with a perfect string of eight straight Buys in the database. As for Drillsearch, the broker’s move was predicated by three facts:

  1. December quarter production was up 54% on the ramping up of production at Bauer.
  2. More upside and material production increases in the coming six months are expected.
  3. A 19% drop in the share price since the beginning of the year.

The upgrade establishes a positive skew for the shares, with two Buys and one Hold now on record.

BA-Merrill Lynch jumps in with a boost for Goodman Fielder (GFF), lifting the stock all the way to Buy from Sell on improved earnings expectations, after lifting FY13-14 earnings estimates by 11% and 19% respectively. The upgrade pushed the stock slightly further into positive sentiment territory, with four Buys, two Holds and two Sells.

Deutsche Bank bumped up IOOF (IFL) to Buy on the view that current consensus doesn’t seem to be giving IOOF full credit for its improving outlook. The broker believes the company has expansion potential and is well positioned to take advantage of industry consolidation. Plus, there’s 10% upside to the price target and 5% dividend yield. Four Buys and two Holds see the stock well regarded in the database.

Analysts from Citi also pushed out two upgrades, with National Australia Bank (NAB) and Oil Search (OSH) both lifted from Hold to Buy. The call on NAB was not so much about the bank, but was rather based on an observation of investor dividend appetite. Thus Citi doesn’t really expect much upside from the bank; it just sees a fairly safe if unexciting reporting season combined with investors that continue to look for safe yield. Three Buys, four Holds and a couple of Sells see the stock increase its positive sentiment. As for Oil Search, the broker moves its target higher, after a positive quarterly report that saw both earnings forecasts and the price target pushed higher. The stock maintains a positive sentiment read in the database on six Buys and just two Holds.

Downgrade

As mentioned, the downgrade side is a fair bit busier. IRESS Market Technology (IRE) took one of the biggest hits last week, downgraded to Sell from Hold by both Macquarie and Credit Suisse. The view is IRESS will continue to do it tough, especially in financial markets, where the company’s sell-side clients remain under pressure. Macquarie makes a point of confirming it likes the company, saying shares are just too rich. The downgrades leave the stock firmly mired in negative sentiment.

Another double downgrade case was Pharmaxis (PXS), with both CIMB and Deutsche Bank cutting their calls. CIMB moves to Hold from Buy and Deutsche to Sell from Hold, after an FDA advisory committee handed down a negative recommendation on Bronchitol. CIMB notes funding has been secured to keep the ball rolling for a couple more years, while Deutsche thinks further trials will be much harder to get green-lighted, making any sort of success on this front less likely. The stock has hung on to a positive sentiment read, barely, with two Buys one Hold and a Sell on show in the database. Not every analyst has updated post the FDA recommendation just yet.

Aquila Resources (AQA) fell to Sell from Neutral on the books of JP Morgan, with the broker downgrading on recent strength in the share price. The broker also chopped Evolution Mining (EVN) down to Hold from Buy despite a fairly solid quarter. Capex blowouts were held to blame. Four Buys and two Holds in the database ensure a positive bias is maintained. Silver Lake Resources (SLR) was also lowered by JPM, the broker spooked by a soft quarter and uninspiring guidance. Lastly, JP Morgan also lowered its view on WDS (WDS) to Hold from Buy on an appreciating share price and the expectation for mixed results at best in the upcoming 1H report.

CIMB made a number of downgrades among industrial services stocks, lowering Brambles (BXB), Qube Logistics (QUB) and Toll Holdings (TOL) to Sell from Neutral. For Brambles, the broker thinks current market conditions simply don’t justify current share price strength. For Qube, the broker’s outlook remains positive, but the recent run in the share price has stretched the valuation picture pretty tight. The broker is also positive on Toll longer term, but otherwise remains cautious about the extent of improvement we’re likely to see over the course of 2013.

The broker also took the knife to Southern Cross Media (SXL), cutting its call from Buy to Sell on lower forecasts and market share headwinds in both TV and metro radio. The stock has maintained a slight positive bias, with four Buys, two Holds and two Sells.

UBS downgraded UGL (UGL) to Hold from Buy, making it a run of downgrades this month, after both CIMB and BA-ML cut their calls earlier in January. UBS’ problem is a dwindling order book, which is starting to feed through to a lower earnings outlook. The latest downgrade moves the stock into negative sentiment territory on one Buy, five Holds and two Sells.

BA-Merrill Lynch made two adjustments, with both JB HiFi (JBH) and ResMed (RMD) downgraded over the course of the week. The broker moves from Hold to Sell on JB HiFi, given a declining outlook on margins. Sentiment has slipped into the negative on four Sells, three Buys and a Hold. Meanwhile, ResMed slips to Hold from Buy on valuation grounds, despite a well-received December quarter report. Our database now shows two Buys and six Holds.

As far as changes to consensus target prices go, the biggest increase was an 11.23% lift in IOOF, while ResMed posted an 8% rise. The big move to the downside was recorded by Pharmaxis, on the back of the downgrade discussed above. Evolution Mining and PanAust (PNA) were also down a bit more than 5%.

Both Tap Oil (TAP) and Perseus Mining (PRU) saw consensus earnings lifted by 10-11%, while major downgrades were pushed through on Lynas Corp (LYC) and Whitehaven Coal (WHC), PanAust, Sandfire Resources (SFR), Newcrest (NCM), Evolution Mining and Drillsearch.

Note: FNArena monitors eight leading stockbrokers on a daily basis and the tables below are based on data analysis from the week past concerning these eight equity market experts. The eight experts are: BA-Merrill Lynch, Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan, Macquarie, CIMB (former RBS) and UBS.

Important: This content has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual. It does not constitute formal advice. Consider the appropriateness of the information in regards to your circumstances.

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