Unemployment up, boosting chance of an interest rate cut

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Official figures showing a rise in jobless numbers have further tipped the odds in favour of an interest rate cut next month.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday reported that the unemployment rate rose to 5.2 per cent in June, from 5.1 per cent in May, with total employment numbers dropping by 27,000.

Economists had expected a 5.2 per cent unemployment rate but flat jobs growth for June.

JP Morgan Australia chief economist Stephen Walters said the weaker jobs figures made it more likely that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would cut the cash rate again.

“This number makes it more likely the Reserve Bank is going to cut again and it could be as early as August,” Mr Walters told AAP.

The RBA cut the cash by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.5 per cent in June, after a half a percentage point drop in May.

Mr Walters said the monthly jobs data was notoriously volatile and the fall in employment numbers came after several months of solid growth.

HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham said there was no clear indication about whether the jobs data showed Australia was heading towards higher unemployment.

“I think the important point here is that the unemployment rate is still below the peak level it reached in August last year,” he said.

“So we’ve seen the unemployment rate tracking broadly sideways since August last year in the low fives.

“We expect to see more of the same in coming months. When you look at the numbers over the six months as a whole, we’ve created 14,000 jobs a month.”

Mr Bloxham said that although the jobs data provided scope for the RBA to cut the cash rate, much of that decision would depend on global developments.

RBC fixed income strategist Michael Turner said that despite the weaker headline figure, the market was now only slightly more confident that there would be a cash rate cut in August.