The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has not given any indication that it will cut interest rates again in the coming months.

The RBA cut the cash rate from 4.75 per cent to 4.5 per cent at its November 1 board meeting, attributing easing inflationary pressures and volatility on global financial markets for its decision.

It was the first rate move in 12 months.

The meeting’s minutes, released on Tuesday, showed the decision was a close one with discussion including keeping rates on hold.

“The case for an easing in policy was that there had clearly been material changes to the recent course of, and outlook for, underlying inflation over recent months, while the downside risks for the global economy had increased,” the RBA said in the minutes.

The minutes touched on the case for keeping rates on hold “on the basis that, unless the world economy turned down in a serious way, the expansionary effects of the high terms of trade … would, in time, assert themselves more fully”.

JP Morgan economist Ben Jarman said there were two things that pushed the RBA over the line to cut in November.

“The first was the (downward) revisions for the inflation data. That gave them a fairly different starting point in terms of how the next few years are going to play out,” he said.

“You can still be a believer in that mining will drive growth and that will put pressure on inflation but if you’ve got a lower starting point you’ve basically got time on your side.

“The other thing, of course, is you’ve got pretty significant risks globally.

“So you can see demand being subdued in the near term.”

Mr Jarman said it did not look like there would be more rate cuts in the near future.

“They even said there was a case for leaving policy on hold, given that unless something goes seriously wrong internationally then inflation will eventually be a problem,” he said.

“I think it’s very much a case of watching the external risks from here.

“The Australian economic data has been actually getting a bit of momentum over the last couple of months and you basically need a continuation of a worsening news flow from overseas to get you over the line for a further easing,” Mr Jarman said.

CMC Markets chief market strategist Michael McCarthy said the RBA’s predictions for movements in the Australian dollar were a particular point of interest from its minutes.

“What struck me was that they thought the terms of trade had peaked in the third quarter, suggesting that the Australian dollar is likely to consolidate lower against other currencies,” he said.

“It’s an interesting view, and I don’t know if it’s based on recent data out of APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation), but it’s interesting from a trading point of view.

“Other than that, they’ve expressed concern about things we already knew – particularly with their concern for the potential disruption emanating in Europe.”

Mr McCarthy said the RBA’s explanation of its recent rate cut suggested it would not be making any more moves in December.

“I’m concerned that they see 4.5 per cent as a neutral stance, given the recent move down in inflation,” he said.

“They certainly haven’t moved to a more accommodating phase at this stage.

“Given the recent figures we’ve seen in job numbers and consumer confidence following the recent rate cut, it would suggest to me that a rate cut is less likely in December.

“I think it’s fair to say the Reserve Bank is going to act cautiously on this.”

Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said the minutes clearly left the door open for further rate cuts.

“With financial conditions and policy settings not yet being described as neutral, inflation forecast to remain within the target and GDP (gross domestic product) growing at trend, the scope to further ease policy is clear,” Mr Evans said.

Westpac forecasts a further 75 basis points of cuts to the cash rate, with the next move downward in February.

The fixed income market is fully pricing in a rate cut in December.

“Given the huge emphasis which the Bank has placed on downside risks to the global economy as justifying the cut in November, the decision in December will hinge on those global developments,” Mr Evans said.

“We remain comfortable with our original view but can easily see circumstances which would bring the decision to cut rates by 25 basis points forward from February to December.”