RBA cuts but shows no zeal for more

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After vindicating expectations of an interest rate cut on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia isn’t showing much enthusiasm for another.

The door remains open but, in announcing the cash rate would be cut to a new half-century low of 2.5 per cent from 2.75 per cent, the central bank certainly didn’t carry on about it.

“The board has previously noted that the inflation outlook could provide some scope to ease policy further, should that be required to support demand,” the RBA said in the statement issued after its monthly board meeting.

But, in a conspicuous departure from the wording of previous announcements, it offered no comment about whether any of that scope would remain after the well-anticipated move.

Of course, such scope exists.

Inflation is the key.

“Recent data confirm that inflation has been consistent with the medium-term target.

“With growth in labour costs moderating, this is expected to remain the case over the next one to two years, even with the effects of the recent depreciation of the exchange rate,” the RBA said.

If the economic outlook deteriorates, then that benign outlook for price rises would allow another growth-boosting reduction in the cash rate.

The exchange rate could have a bearing on the decision as well.

“The Australian dollar has depreciated by around 15 per cent since early April, although it remains at a high level.

“It is possible that the exchange rate will depreciate further over time, which would help to foster a rebalancing of growth in the economy,” the RBA said.

That implies that a further depreciation is factored into the RBA’s central forecasts, meaning persistent strength in the Aussie dollar could be a catalyst for another cut.

But, because the RBA didn’t say explicitly that there is scope for a rate cut, it’s safe to assume that another is not seen as likely and that if the RBA does change its mind on this score it could be a while before that happens.