RBA confirms rates on hold, for now

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The Reserve Bank of Australia has signalled it’s happy to maintain its current perch on the fence.

The central bank validated widely held expectations by leaving the benchmark cash rate on hold at 2.5 per cent on Tuesday, following a cut from 2.75 per cent in August.

This pause was clearly signalled in the minutes of the August 6 meeting, released two weeks later.

Those minutes ended with the comment that the RBA board had resolved to “neither close off the possibility of reducing rates further, nor signal an imminent intention to reduce rates further”.

And the statement from RBA governor Glenn Stevens on Tuesday was true to that aim.

“At today’s meeting, the board judged that the setting of monetary policy remained appropriate,” he said.

“The board will continue to assess the outlook and adjust policy as needed to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with the target.”

There was no explicit pointer to the possibility that the cash rate might be cut further, or even that there was any scope for another cut.

But nor was there any wording suggesting the option had been closed off.

The Australian dollar, the strength of which has put the brakes on the economy over the past couple of years, came in for special mention again.

“The Australian dollar has depreciated by around 15 per cent since early April, although it remains at a high level.

“It is possible that the exchange rate will depreciate further over time, which would help to foster a rebalancing of growth in the economy,” the RBA said.

And it’s clear that the RBA would be very pleased if the Aussie did fall further.

So the RBA is exactly where it was a month ago.

The next consumer price index figures still look to be the key checkpoint for the RBA to pass before cutting again.

And the stubbornly high Aussie dollar, and it’s retarding effect on the economy, looks likely to be an important motivation for the RBA if it comes to that point.