A preview of next week’s Australian economic data, October 17 to October 21:
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AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS (ABS) NEW MOTOR VEHICLE SALES
Due: Monday
Period: September
Market forecast: No market forecast for this series.
Last result: Sales of new motor vehicles in Australia rose 3.3 per cent in August, official data shows.
The ABS said that new vehicle sales rose to 87,935 units in August, seasonally adjusted, compared to 85,147 units in July.
In the year to August, new motor vehicle sales rose 4.4 per cent, seasonally adjusted.
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ABS LENDING FINANCE
Due: Monday
Period: August
Market forecast: No market forecast for this series.
Last result: Total personal finance commitments rose 0.5 per cent in July, seasonally adjusted, to $7.009 billion, up from $6.972 billion in June, the ABS said.
Total commercial finance rose 6.1 per cent in July, seasonally adjusted, to $31.857 billion, up from $30.026 billion in June.
Lease finance was up 3.4 per cent in July to $388 million, compared with $375 million the month before.
Housing finance for owner occupation rose 1.4 per cent to $14.370 billion in July, from $14.171 billion in June.
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MINUTES OF RESERVE BANK OF Australia (RBA) BOARD MEETING RELEASED
Due: Tuesday
Period: October
Market forecast: No market forecast
Last result: Global economic uncertainty has helped hold off an interest rate rise and is also keeping inflation in check, the central bank says.
The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) September 6 board meeting showed the bank was still taking a wait-and-see approach as it monitored inflationary pressures and the flagging global economy.
The RBA is currently torn between the need to keep inflation, which is being pushed up by rising commodity prices, under control and the threat of global economic worries on the Australian economy.
However, slowing global and domestic economic growth is helping keep a lid on inflation and interest rates.
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AUSTRALIAN OFFICE OF FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT TO ISSUE TREASURY INDEXED BONDS
Due: Tuesday
A tender is planned for the issue of $50 million of the August 2020 Treasury Indexed Bond line.
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SPEECH BY GUY DEBELLE, RBA ASSISTANT GOVERNOR (FINANCIAL MARKETS), TO THE 24th ANNUAL FINANCE & TREASURY ASSOCIATION CONGRESS, SYDNEY
Due: Wednesday
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WESTPAC-MELBOURNE INSTITUTE LEADING INDEXES OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
Due: Wednesday
Period: October
Market forecast: No market forecast
Last result: Australia’s economy is expected to slow in the second half of the year, due to weakness in consumer spending and ongoing weakness in the property market.
The Westpac/Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity three to nine months into the future, was at 3.1 per cent in July, which is around its long-term average.
But the annualised rate of Westpac’s coincident index, which gives a pulse of current activity, was 0.2 per cent, well below its long-term term trend of 2.8 per cent.
Over the last six months, the growth rate in the leading index has increased from 2.1 per cent to 3.1 per cent.
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ABS INTERNATIONAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS
Due: Wednesday
Period: September
Market forecast: No market forecast for this series.
Last result: Merchandise imports rose by $733 million in August, to $20.170 billion, seasonally adjusted, ABS figures show.
Unadjusted, merchandise imports rose four per cent, or $806 million, to $20.521 billion, from $19.715 billion in July, the ABS said on Monday.
Imports of mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials rose to $3.394 billion in August, from $3.069 billion a month earlier, while imports of machinery and transport equipment fell to $7.434 billion, from $8.183 billion in July.
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NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK (NAB) QUARTERLY BUSINESS SURVEY
Due: Thursday
Period: September quarter
Market forecast: No market forecast
Last result: Business confidence fell sharply in the June quarter, hampered by a high Australian dollar and cautious consumers.
The NAB business survey of the second quarter of calendar 2011 also found that business conditions rose slightly, but remained at subdued levels.
NAB said its business confidence index fell from 11 in the March quarter to six in the June quarter, while the confidence index rose one point, to three.
“The softness in conditions is likely to reflect a slower than initially anticipated post-flood recovery, as well as general weakness in domestic demand,” NAB reported on Thursday.
The decline in the confidence index in the June quarter fully unwound gains made in the previous quarter, NAB said.
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SPEECH BY MALCOLM EDEY, RBA ASSISTANT GOVERNOR (FINANCIAL SYSTEM), TO THE ISDA ANNUAL AUSTRALIA CONFERENCE, SYDNEY
Due: Thursday
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AUSTRALIAN OFFICE OF FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT TO ISSUE TREASURY NOTES
Due: Thursday
A tender is planned for the issue of $1 billion of Treasury Notes, maturing on February 3, 2012 and $1 billion of Treasury Notes, maturing on October 20, 2012.
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ABS INTERNATIONAL TRADE PRICE INDEXES
Due: Friday
Period: September quarter
Market forecast: No market forecast for this series.
Last result: Import and export price figures show that the terms of trade most likely hit a new high in the June quarter.
The terms of trade is an index of the ratio of export prices to import prices.
High export prices boost domestic income and encourage investment in export industries, while lower import prices mean the buying power of the nation’s income is boosted even more.
The figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed the export price index rose by 6.0 per cent in the June quarter while import prices rose by 0.8 per cent.
Over the year to June, the export price index was up by 10.5 per cent, while the import price index actually fell back by 1.0 per cent.
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AUSTRALIAN OFFICE OF FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT TO ISSUE TREASURY BONDS
Due: Friday
A tender is planned for the issue of $700 million of October 2011 Treasury Bonds.
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