Only one more rate cut to come – maybe

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The bad news for borrowers is it looks like the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate reduction cycle is coming to an end, with economists divided on the chances of another cut.

All 13 economists surveyed by AAP expect the RBA to leave the cash rate at the record low of 2.5 per cent on Tuesday.

Five of them say there will be no more rate cuts and all expect the cash rate to either stay on hold or start to rise in the latter part of 2014.

The central bank has steadily reduced the cash rate since early November 2010 when it was 4.75 per cent.

JP Morgan Australia chief economist Stephen Walters said the RBA has been doing a solo act in trying to stimulate the domestic economy.

“As the RBA has eased monetary policy, the federal government maintained the firm commitment to returning the budget to surplus,” he said.

“RBA officials have consistently described the Australian dollar as high, believing a lower currency would aid the rebalancing needed in the economy.

“It follows that higher Australian dollar hinders this process.”

Mr Walters said he expects an interest rate cut at the banks’ Melbourne Cup Day meeting in November.

“Weak growth, rising unemployment and benign inflation make a strong argument for easier policy; Australian dollar at a six-month high makes it compelling,” he said.

“We still favour November as the most likely timing for the next rate cut. Officials should use the intervening period to massage market expectations back in favour of easier policy, including by reinstating a clearer easing bias, which at least could undermine some support for the Australian dollar.”

HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham says he doesn’t think there will be another rate cut in the foreseeable future.

“Rising housing prices and new lending may make them reluctant to cut rates further, both because it is a sign that monetary policy is already working and because they may be concerned about over-inflating the housing market by cutting rates too far,” he said.

“While rising housing prices are a necessary part of the rebalancing of growth that the RBA is hoping will occur, they would be worried if housing prices accelerated too much.”

The RBA expressed some concern about over-inflated prices in its Financial Stability Review on Wednesday.

It warned banks and households to remain prudent with their lending and borrowing practices in the current record-low interest rate environment.

“There are some signs that households are taking on more risk in their investment decisions,” the RBA said.