National Australia Bank has joined its rival ANZ in bringing forward to November its prediction of when the Reserve Bank will next cut the cash rate.
NAB on Monday revealed it believes the central bank’s board will cut the cash rate by a quarter of a percentage point when it meets on November 6, and then again in February.
The forecast is a dramatic change from its previous position, which proposed no cuts right through to the June quarter next year.
This followed ANZ’s statement on Friday, when it said it expected a rate cut at each of the next two Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board meetings – after earlier predicting only one cut in November, and another in early 2013.
NAB group chief economist Alan Oster said it appeared weak conditions in the non-mining sectors were weighing on the RBA board’s mind, with previous rate cuts failing to stem the downturn.
“While there are signs that previous RBA cuts are stabilising house prices and may be starting to help interest sensitive sectors, as per the NAB August monthly business survey, some sectors of the economy remain in a very depressed state,” he said.
“The most obvious example here is residential construction, where capacity utilisation has fallen to record low levels.
“Also it is clear small business is doing worse than larger business as cash flows are squeezed.”
Of the other two major banks, Westpac is expecting one 0.25 per cent rate cut at the RBA’s October meeting next week – changed from an earlier prediction of November – plus another two cuts in December and in the first quarter of 2013.
Commonwealth Bank has left its forecast unchanged – one cut of 0.25 per cent in November.
Mr Oster said recent budget cuts by governments in Victoria, NSW and Queensland could also add to the case for rate reductions, as would continuing concerns about the high Australian dollar.
“This is important in that the RBA is not expecting lower rates to significantly lower the Australian dollar but rather is trying to offset some of the economic damage to the economy, especially the competitiveness of the interest rate sensitive sectors,” he said.
However, he said inflation data for the September quarter could throw a spanner in the works, if wage prices were high.
