Australia has recorded its fifth-straight trade surplus, with mining exports continuing to hold up despite a global economic slowdown.
Australia’s trade surplus widened slightly to $1.826 billion in July from a month earlier, which was very close to economists’ estimates.
Both total exports and imports fell slightly in July.
JP Morgan economist Ben Jarman said it was a steady result, given the slowdown being experienced in other major economies such as the US.
He said it appeared that demand from Australia’s major trading partners in Asia was holding up.
“While the Asian region is at the leading edge of the global growth downgrades … China and India, two of Australia’s largest four trading partners, have been showing greater resilience than others in the region.”
There was a risk the US slowdown could trickle through to the Asian region, the main customer for Australia’s raw mineral exports, he said.
Exports of non-rural goods, dominated by coal and other minerals, fell back by $724 million, or 3.9 per cent, in July, not quite reversing the $744 million rise in June.
Despite that fall, exports of non-rural goods this year have totalled $119 billion, $13 billion more than the first seven months of 2010.
CommSec chief economist Craig James said the trade figures showed there was still strong demand from Asia for Australia’s natural resources.
“What it does highlight is the strong underlying position of the Australian economy, significantly benefiting from its close relationship with Asia,” Mr James said.
“The Asian economy is doing well and requiring our raw materials.”
For July’s figures, coal export shipments were softer, while imports of cars and capital equipment were strong.
Economists had forecast a trade surplus of $1.9 billion for the month.
During July, exports fell one per cent in adjusted terms, while imports were also down one per cent, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) said on Monday.
RBC fixed income and currency strategist Michael Turner said coal exports fell 12 per cent in July after showing signs of a recovery after the floods in the first quarter.
“Volumes look to have softened to start the third quarter, with shipments to India, Japan, and Korea weaker on the month,” he said.
The falls in exports were offset by a jump in the non-monetary gold, a volatile component of the trade figures.
Economists agree the latest trade surplus will not move the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates, given concerns over global growth prospects.
“Whilst export data are proving volatile, it will be difficult to observe any slowing in global trade until at least August or more likely September trade data,” Mr Turner said.
