Mining boosts economy for a second straight quarter

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The Australian economy has posted its second consecutive quarter of robust growth as the booming mining sector fuels a solid rise in business investment, official figures show.

Gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 1.0 per cent in the September quarter, after an upwardly revised 1.4 per cent rise in the June quarter.

The economy contracted in the March quarter after floods and cyclones in Queensland disrupted coal exports by shutting mines and cutting railways.

Over the year to September, GDP grew by 2.5 per cent, seasonally adjusted in chain volume terms, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) said on Wednesday.

Economists had been expecting GDP to rise by 1.0 per cent in the September quarter for an annual rate of 2.1 per cent, according to an AAP survey of 16 economists conducted on Friday.

HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham said the data indicated a generally positive trend based on mining investment.

“I think these figures show that the Australian economy is still in pretty good shape, and that’s reflected in the fact that we’ve got strong GDP growth in the third quarter,” he said.

“It’s been supported by very strong growth in mining investment, and there are some divergences in sectors and states, but overall, the economy’s still doing well.”

Mr Bloxham said he expected further domestic growth ahead, as the mining boom and recovery from this year’s natural disasters picked up speed.

“I think there’s still more to come in the sense that there’s not been a full rebound in coal exports yet, and we haven’t had a lot of that reconstruction spending,” he said.

“But it’s clear the economy is tracking at a bit below trend.

“We expect that the mining investment boom will continue to support solid growth, but the concern is that offshore risks have grown substantially.

“That’s seen the RBA cut rates yesterday, and we expect that offshore risks will prevail early in next year, and they will have to cut rates again.”

Commsec chief economist Craig James said the figures showed the Australian economy was still performing well.

“It’s pretty clear that the Australian economy is still chugging along quite nicely,” he said.

“It’s the sort of result that foreign investors would remain fairly happy about when they are looking at the Australian economy.

“Australians should be celebrating the fact that our record economic expansion is continuing.

However, Mr James said the figures showed that some sectors were continuing to struggle.

“It’s pretty clear that the two-speed or three speed economy is being represented.

“Areas like construction, particularly the engineering variety, are doing very well together with mining, but then you’ve got some of the more domestically focused areas of the economy and the services sectors which are relatively soft.”

He said the relatively strong result did not detract from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to cut the cash rate by 25 basis points on Friday.

Data released since the September quarter has shown some sectors contracting, he said, while concerns Europe’s debt crisis could lead to a global downturn have risen in recent months.

“The Reserve Bank has always got to be forward looking.

“The national accounts or economic growth figures are very much looking in the rear view mirror.

“This data doesn’t support or take away from the case for the Reserve Bank cutting interest rates.”

Commonwealth Bank economist James McIntyre said the GDP result looked strong, particularly in some parts of the economy that were thought to have been suffering.

“For example manufacturing had quite a strong outcome,” he said.

“Not only was third quarter stronger than we were factoring in but the previous quarter was revised up as well.

“The domestic economy seems to be cracking along at quite a strong pace.”

Mr McIntyre said the outlook for the new year looked solid, especially after the two rate cuts by the central bank over the past two months.

“It should, along with that mining sector upswing, be something that supports the economy in the new year.

“At the same time the expectation is that the terms of trade is likely to have peaked at this point.”