$A keeps rate cut on RBA agenda

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For the eleventh time this year, the Reserve Bank of Australia has used the minutes of its monthly monetary policy meeting to signal the possibility of further interest rate cuts.

It also signalled that the strong Australian dollar could be the catalyst.

The indication that the so-called easing bias was intact at this month’s meeting makes it a clean sweep – every meeting in 2013, because the RBA’s board doesn’t get together in January.

Even when the central bank cut its benchmark cash rate – which started the year at 3.0 per cent – to 2.75 per cent in May and then to 2.5 per cent in August, it still used the minutes to flag the possibility of further reductions.

The central bank publishes the minutes two weeks after its first-Tuesday-of-the-month get-togethers.

The latest edition covers the December 3 meeting.

The wording of the key sentence has not changed since August.

“The Board’s judgment remained that, given the substantial degree of policy stimulus that had been imparted, it was prudent to hold the cash rate steady while continuing to gauge the effects of earlier reductions, but not to close off the possibility of reducing it further should that be appropriate to support demand,” the RBA said in the minutes released on Tuesday.

Another key comment has also been heard before.

“While the exchange rate had depreciated over the month, members agreed that it remained uncomfortably high and a lower level would likely be needed to achieve balanced growth in the economy,” the RBA said.

By “balanced growth”, the RBA means stronger growth in other sectors to pick up the slack left by reduced mining investment.

In the past, the RBA has indicated that it had lowered the cash rate to offset the negative economic effects of the strong Australian dollar, which reduces the competitiveness of local industry.

The imminent closure of Holden’s manufacturing operations is a timely reminder of that.

But the emphasis appears to have shifted in recent months.

By saying a lower Australian dollar “would likely be needed”, it’s acknowledging that the ability of lower interest rates to make up for an uncompetitively high exchange rate is limited.

That explains the increasing frequency and frankness in the RBA’s mentions of the exchange rate, and the need for it to fall.

It also suggests that any further rate cuts are likely to be aimed specifically at lowering the exchange rate – even though the RBA is unlikely to say it out loud – rather than merely offsetting the effects of the Aussie’s strength.