June rate cut unlikely – blame the AUD

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Borrowers are unlikely to get another interest rate cut on Tuesday, partly because the central bank governor is getting his wish – a falling Australian dollar.

All but one of the 13 economists surveyed by AAP expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to hold its cash rate on June 4, though most say another rate cut is on the cards later in the year.

At the previous board meeting on May 7, the RBA cut the rate by quarter of a percentage point to a record low of 2.75 per cent.

At the time, the RBA governor Glenn Stevens, said low inflation gave the board scope to make a further reduction to boost economic growth.

While Australia has been enjoying the benefits of a mining investment boom, growth in the other sectors of the economy have been sluggish at best.

One of the factors blamed for this has been the high Australian dollar, which has stayed above parity with the US dollar for most of the past two years.

One of those pointing the finger is the central bank boss.

At his bi-annual testimony to a parliamentary committee in February, Mr Stevens said the four interest rate cuts in 2012 was partly due to the high currency.

“It is not that interest rates are seeking a particular exchange rate response. But, they are being set with a recognition of the exchange rate’s effect on the economy,” he said at the time.

Mr Stevens looks like he got his wish when the Australian dollar fell seven per cent in May, from almost 103 US cents to around 96 cents at the end of the month.

HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham said the high currency was one of the factors the RBA moved on May 7.

“The high Australian dollar had put more downward pressure on inflation than expected, which left the door open for the RBA to cut rates, which it did,” he said.

Indeed, had the Australian dollar been at its current level when the RBA met last month, we suspect it may not have cut rates.

“For this reason, we expect the RBA to remain on hold next week.”

The Australian economy is now facing the prospect of the mining sector slowing down and a weaker currency and lower interest rates should help boost growth in the other sectors.

There was evidence of this on Thursday, when official figures showed a strong rise in the number of new homes approved for construction in April, while the outlook for mining investment in the coming financial year is expected to fall.

Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said the data and the falling currency would be factors in the cash rate staying on hold in the near term, but he is predicting a rate cut in August.

“Balancing these themes, we have seen faltering household and business confidence,” he said.

“The net impact of these factors is clearly pointing towards the bank remaining patient for the moment.”