Jobs market dropouts window-dress figures

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The trend in employment is flat, but that’s not boosting the jobless rate.

Well, not much anyway.

The main effect in recent months has been to discourage many potential jobseekers from staying in the labour market.

When the number of jobs is flatlining, it’s a safe bet that people start finding better things to do than look for a job.

That’s one reason why the experience of many job hunters at the moment – it’s tougher to find a job than it usually is between recessions – contrasts with an unemployment rate that has flattened out.

Of course, if you’re not looking for a job – or even if you are, but not ready to start right away – you aren’t unemployed.

You might want a job and be ready to start.

You may even be looking for a job.

But if you don’t tick both boxes, you’re not going to show up in the official estimate of unemployment.

The fall in participation prompted by the scarcity of work has added to an underlying decline caused by an ageing population.

Older people are more likely to be retired or unable to work.

According to figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday, the jobless rate is steady on a trend basis – a smoothed-out version of the widely reported seasonally adjusted estimates.

At 5.75 per cent November, it was the same as in October and only a tenth of a percentage point higher than six months earlier.

It’s a surprisingly benign outcome, given that the number of people with a job was virtually unchanged over the same half-year, while the working age population increased by 164,000.

The decline in participation has meant the additions to the population were not added to the number unemployed.

Instead, they left the labour force and were no longer counted as either employed or unemployed.

That’s why the unemployment rate is virtually static, and why things aren’t as good as that might usually imply.