Australian job ads decline

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Job advertisements have dropped for the second month in a row suggesting Australia’s economy was going through a soft patch, a survey shows.

Total job advertisements on the internet and in major metropolitan newspapers fell 0.6 per cent in August, the ANZ job advertisements survey showed on Monday. In the year to August, job ads were up 6.1 per cent, the slowest yearly growth in the series since February 2010.

The result for August was the fourth monthly decline in the past five months and shows job advertising was “clearly in a cyclic slowdown in 2011, consistent with other indicators of both economic activity and labour demand,” said ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan.

He described the falls in job ads as “modest thus far”.

“This suggests a soft patch for Australian economic growth associated with stagnant employment conditions rather than a sharp slowdown that will drive a rapid rise in unemployment,” he said.

Internet advertising was only 0.5 per cent lower in August, to be 7.3 per cent higher than a year ago.

The decline in newspaper job advertising had been “more severe”, falling three per cent in August to be 15.6 per cent lower than a year ago, Mr Hogan said. Newspaper job ads have now fallen in each of the last six months.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releases official employment figures on Thursday.

ANZ expects some modest growth in total employment, led by full-time jobs following recent softness.

“Employment is forecast to rise by 18,000 in August. The unemployment rate is expected to ease slightly to five per cent in August, before heading up to 5.25 per cent by the end of 2011 and 5.5 per cent by mid 2012.”

He said the sustained slowing in job advertisements suggests that more subdued employment growth can be expected in the coming months.

“ANZ has recently reviewed its employment forecasts and expect the unemployment rate to continue to drift up to around 5.25 per cent to 5.5 per cent over the next 12 months.”

The rising unemployment rate was not likely to be used by the central bank as a trigger for cutting interest rates, Mr Hogan said.

“Inflation pressures remain and the uplift in mining and construction activity will cap the rise in unemployment in 2012.”