A batch of data on Monday suggests the economy limped into the new year, but with a hint of a better outlook for jobseekers early in 2013.
The national accounts on Wednesday will show if, and by how much, gross domestic product grew in the December quarter, the final three months of the year.
But the numbers from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Monday warn against hoping for much.
Business inventories grew much slower in the December quarter, meaning less production was needed.
That will drag on GDP growth to the tune of about 0.4 percentage points.
The average quarterly growth rate for GDP over time is about 0.8 per cent, so that’s a significant hit to growth.
There were also some income-based figures for the quarter.
A key measure of profits, gross corporate operating surplus, fell for the fifth quarter in a row, the ABS figures showed.
Other income measures – unincorporated business profits and total wages – did a bit better.
Even so, the measures of income combined, after the inventory adjustment to corporate profits to get it into line with the profits measures used in calculating GDP, fell by about 0.3 per cent.
Bearing in mind that the average price of GDP probably fell, thanks to lower export prices, that probably still means a growth in GDP after allowing for price changes.
But neither the inventories figures nor the incomes data seem consistent with a GDP rise much more than half the long-run average.
But it’s still early days – quarterly trade figures and government spending estimates due on Tuesday will fill in some more blanks in the GPD jigsaw puzzle.
Other data from the bureau on Monday showed building approvals in dollar terms up by one per cent in the residential sector.
But in the non-residential sector – which includes shops, hotels, hospitals, offices and the like – approvals surged by a hefty 23 per cent in the non-residential sector .
That category is very volatile from month to month, but even if approvals fall back in February, those January approvals will still add to economic activity and therefore employment in coming months.
If so, it would help to ensure a rise in job advertisements reported by the ANZ in its regular monthly survey does not end up being a flash in the pan.
The ANZ reported a seasonally adjusted three per cent rise in job ads – including newspapers and on-line ads – in February after a small gain in January.
The ANZ’s economists are keeping the champagne corked, though.
“The extent to which the increase in job advertising in January and February represents a similar temporary or sustained pick-up is unclear at this stage,” they said in a note issued with the figures.
There was a similar rise in February last year, followed by 10 monthly falls.
Still, that may not happen this time if building, a very interest-rate sensitive sector of the patchwork economy, can sustain the momentum in coming months.
On that point, though, the jury is still out.
