GDP figures confirm subnormal growth

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The economy is just not quite making the grade.

That’s confirmed by the national accounts from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday.

Australia’s output of good and services – its gross domestic product (GDP) – rose by 0.6 per cent between the final quarter of 2012 and the first quarter of 2013, the three months ending March.

Over the year to the March quarter, GDP grew by 2.5 per cent.

That’s not enough.

In both cases, growth was less than the long-run average or trend growth rate of around 0.8 per cent a quarter and 3.3 per cent a year.

Below-trend growth in GDP means below-trend growth in jobs which, in turn, means rising unemployment.

Unless, for some reason, growth in GDP per worker – labour productivity, that is – slows to less than its long-run trend.

But that’s not happening.

At least the figures should decapitate the zombie-like myth that the nation is having some sort of productivity crisis.

Output per hour worked in the market sector of the economy – that part of it where productivity can actually be measured – rose by 0.6 per cent in the quarter.

And it rose by 2.0 per cent through the year.

In fact, in the four-and-a-half years since the global financial crisis erupted, labour productivity by this gauge has grown by an average annual rate of 2.0 per cent.

In the preceding decade, it grew by an average of 1.8 per cent.

And that’s despite the disruption from the global financial crisis, world recession, Japan’s tsunami, Cycle Yasi, Europe’s recession, stagnating housing prices, the high exchange rate and – at least according to many pundits – a nationwide loss of enthusiasm for productivity-enhancing reform.

It’s a pretty good effort under the circumstances.

But the faster productivity rises, the faster GDP has to grow in order to soak up the additional workers coming into the labour market as the population grows.

Over the year to the March quarter, the available labour force grew by 1.7 per cent.

To find a place for that extra supply of labour, given the solid rate of economy-wide productivity growth, GDP growth needs to be a lot faster than the 2.5 per cent seen over the past year.

Something closer to the long-run average of 3.3 per cent would do it.

But the economy just isn’t quite making the grade.