Fed minutes show rate hike caution

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Federal Reserve policymakers favoured caution last month about raising interest rates as they weighed weak spots in the economy and foreign risks, minutes to the meeting have shown.

Participants at the June 16-17 Federal Open Market Committee meeting decided to leave the benchmark zero-level interest rate unchanged, as expected, as the economy was rebounding from a tough first quarter.

The minutes said “many participants”, in order to decide on raising rates, said they “would need additional information indicating that economic growth was strengthening, that labour market conditions were continuing to improve, and that inflation was moving back toward the committee’s objective.”

Since late 2008, the central bank has kept the federal funds rate pegged between zero and 0.25 per cent to ease credit and support the economy’s recovery from the severe 2008-2009 recession.

The minutes, released on Wednesday, revealed an overriding concern about raising rates too quickly, risking an upset of the economy’s moderate recovery from the Great Recession.

“Most participants judged that the conditions for policy firming had not yet been achieved; a number of them cautioned against a premature decision,” the minutes said.

The Fed has signalled its first rate hike in nine years would likely come this year. Many analysts have forecast the timing as soon as the FOMC meeting in September.

Recent market speculation has put that timing back a bit, to December or even 2016, amid uncertainties caused by the Greek debt crisis and China’s slowing growth and financial system stress.

According to the minutes, Fed policymakers were also concerned about “the potential erosion of the committee’s credibility” if inflation were to persist below the central bank’s 2.0 per cent target, and also about their limited ability to use policy to counter negative shocks to inflation and economic activity.