Credit data adds to no rate change case

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The value of loans outstanding to the private sector was up 0.5 per cent in December, the biggest monthly rise since March 2012.

Annual growth in credit advanced by banks and other lenders was 3.9 per cent.

Such growth rates are still very pedestrian compared with the headier growth recorded ahead of the global crisis in 2008.

But the figures from the Reserve Bank of Australia on Friday still show an acceleration, albeit a very mild one.

In the latest six months, credit grew at an annualised rate of 4.3 per cent, compared with 3.5 per cent in the previous six months and 2.6 per cent in the six months before that.

And the annualised pace of growth over the latest three months, the final quarter of 2013, was 4.7 per cent.

This pickup in credit growth will be welcomed by the RBA.

It’s a large part of the way lower interest rates are converted into faster growth in production and employment.

The other arm of the so-called transmission mechanism is a lower exchange rate.

And the Australian dollar, although still uncomfortably strong at around 88 US cents, is lower than it was not long ago.

It’s down 15 per cent from the $1.03 average of 2011 and 2012 that helped to generate what the RBA refers to as “below trend” – in other words, too slow – economic growth, and the current flat trend in employment.

So the credit figures will give the RBA some comfort that its stimulatory monetary policy setting is working, if not quite as speedily as many Australian businesses and jobseekers would prefer.

They should help to lock in a “no change” decision at next Tuesday’s monetary policy meeting of the RBA’s board and a wait-and-see stance for the coming few months.