CPI less of a bar to rate cut after data

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The scope for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates just got a bit wider.

That’s because inflation – the rate that consumer prices are rising – has turned out a bit slower than economists had expected.

They had forecast a quarterly rise in the consumer price index of about 0.6 per cent, but on Wednesday the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) said the rise was actually only 0.4 per cent.

The rise between the December quarter and the March quarter is usually a bit bigger than normal because such things as private school fees and health insurance are usually jacked up at the start of the year.

Allowing for these seasonal fluctuations the bureau said the CPI rose only 0.1 per cent in the quarter.

Both measures put the annual growth rate at 2.5 per cent, smack bang in the middle of the RBA’s two to three per cent target.

It’s two favoured measures of underlying inflation, which try to cut out big one-off moves in components of the index, rose by an average of 0.4 per cent, with annual growth at 2.4 per cent.

And by each of these measures, inflation in the past two quarters has been at or below the bottom of the range, when measured at an annualised pace over the half-year.

An interest rate cut or two will always pose some risk that the economy might get a bit too much of a boost and set off a round of wage and price rises which could threaten the inflation target.

But that concern was already at a low ebb before the CPI figures on Wednesday.

After the figures, it will have abated even more.

The RBA said last week, in the minutes of its April 2 board meeting, that the on-target inflation outlook gives it scope to cut interest rates “should that be necessary”.

At present, the RBA does not appear to be convinced that it will be necessary.

But if the time comes – and it’s plausible that it soon might – then the inflation outlook is even less of a barrier now than it was a day ago.