Australia has a 10-speed economy, says NAB boss

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Talk of a two-speed economy in Australia is inaccurate and damaging, says National Australia Bank CEO Cameron Clyne.

Mr Clyne told an American Chamber of Commerce in Australia luncheon on Tuesday that Australia had never been a two-speed economy and was more like a 10-speed economy.

The term two-speed economy generally refers to those sections of the economy enjoying the benefits of the resources boom, compared to those that are not.

Mr Clyne said describing the economy as having two speeds was hurting confidence.

“Part of the problem with this constant reference to two speeds is that people feel that if they are not in the express lane, they’re going backwards, which is not the case,” Mr Clyne said.

In Australia there were a number of industries that were buoyant, some that were struggling, and others that were neither having their best nor their worst year – and that is how it had been for a very long time.

Mr Clyne said a better way of describing the economy would be to say that it was undergoing transition.

“The 10 speeds that are in operation at the moment are different to the 10 speeds that were in operation 10 years ago, 20 years ago and many other years ago,” he said.

“But the reality is: that’s the way it’s always been.”

Mr Clyne said there was a strong focus on job losses in various industries at the moment, which was understandable because there was a human story behind each job lost.

But he said industries always underwent transition, employing more or less people and becoming more efficient and more innovative.

For example, in the agriculture sector in Australia in 1900, 23 per cent of the population worked in agriculture; in 1960, it was eight per cent; and today, it was three per cent.

In the manufacturing sector, 100,000 jobs had been lost since 2000, but 500,000 jobs had been created in the health services industry, 300,000 had been created in education, and 100,000 created in mining.

Similarly, of those companies that were listed on the Forbes top 100 list in 1990, only 15 were still there today.

“What industries will emerge in 2030 that we haven’t thought of now?” Mr Clyne said.

Mr Clyne said confidence, not interest rate cuts, was the key to boosting the economy.

“Part of what’s needed to restore confidence is broadening the debate from two speeds,” he said.

Mr Clyne said a national agenda that focused on bigger issues – such as why Australian was graduating fewer IT specialists than it was a decade ago – would help build confidence.

“If you are driving those sort of questions, and you’re setting value to your agenda, people respond to that with confidence,” he said.

“They’re not knocked down by the weekly commentary on whether or not things that are up or down.”