For the week ending Friday, May 23, 2025, FNArena tracked six upgrades and six downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.
Although less pronounced than in previous weeks, this marks the fourth consecutive week in which the top ten percentage declines in average target prices and in forecasts have outweighed any gains across the board in the tables below.
In no surprise to long-term shareholders, TechnologyOne revealed record-beating first-half metrics and management raised FY25 profit guidance, noting SaaS-Plus is accelerating in the UK.
According to management, the company possesses a “game changing” SaaS-Plus offering, which is being deployed in the UK to significant effect. This business now represents around 8% of group annual recurring revenue (ARR).
Management has achieved a 49.4% Rule of 40 metric which fits in between the levels achieved by fellow ASX-listed heavyweights Xero and Pro Medicus.
Used to assess the balance between growth and profitability, the rule is calculated as the sum of TechOne’s free cash flow margin (22%) plus the revenue growth rate of 27.4%.
Following TechOne on the positive change to average target price are Syrah Resources and Lynas Rare Earths with FY25 increases of around 13% and 6%, respectively.
Syrah Resources, which specialises in the supply of natural graphite and battery anode materials, operates the Balama mine in Mozambique, one of the world’s largest and lowest-cost sources of natural flake graphite.
In Vidalia, Louisiana, Syrah also operates a downstream facility which processes natural graphite from Balama into active anode material, which is a key component in lithium-ion batteries used for electric vehicles and energy storage systems.
Last week, Macquarie raised its target for Syrah by 11% to 30c after changes in production restart, price realisation, and funding assumptions, and also downgraded to Neutral from Outperform following recent share price strength.
Synthetic graphite remains in oversupply, cautioned the analyst, with China maintaining dominance in the battery-grade market, a dynamic that is likely to cap graphite price upside.
Positively, Morgan Stanley (Equal weight) upgraded its rare earth price forecasts and raised its target for Syrah to 40c from 22c.
This broker felt critical minerals will need a significant increase in supply to meet the fast-growing demand from robotics. One of the challenges in meeting this demand is the rising average lead times for mines, the analysts noted.
Morgan Stanley’s higher rare earths price forecasts resulted in an upgrade to Overweight from Underweight for Lynas Rare Earths after a target price increase to $10 from $7.10.
Lynas specialises in the production and processing of rare earth elements, critical minerals used in high-tech, green energy, and defence applications. The company is the only significant producer of separated rare earths outside China.
On the flipside, average targets for global crop protection and seed technologies company Nufarm and Monash IVF fell by -26% and -13%, respectively.
Morgans lowered its target for Nufarm to $2.78 from $4.53 and downgraded to Hold from Add after interim results missed consensus forecasts, with a full-year loss now looking likely. The main disappointment, according to the broker, was the underperformance of the Seed Technologies business.
Morgan Stanley is no longer confident about Nufarm’s business prospects, noting elevated gearing in an uncertain global environment.
A review into the Seeds business has begun, with all options on the table. A partial or full sale could unlock value and reduce balance sheet risk, highlighted Macquarie. The review is expected to take at least six months.
Provider of fertility and reproductive health services Monash IVF downgraded its FY25 underlying net profit guidance to $27.5m from $30-31m, citing soft trading conditions in March and April; improvement in May is not expected to offset that weakness.
Morgans decided to upgrade its rating for the company to Speculative Buy from Hold given a rebased earnings guidance for FY25 and in the belief the current valuation is too low.
Analysts at Macquarie felt operating costs will rise as the company increases marketing costs following the recent scandal following an embryo transfer error and higher salaries to retain staff.
In the good books: upgrades
CHARTER HALL LONG WALE REIT ((CLW)) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral by Citi. B/H/S: 1/4/0
Citi anticipates upside for shares of Charter Hall Long WALE REIT as falling rates drive earnings (EPS) forecast upgrades of 4% in 2026 and 9% in 2027.
The broker notes the REIT trades at a -14% discount to net tangible assets (NTA) of $4.62, while also offering an attractive forward dividend yield. It’s felt asset values could rise, compressing the current implied cap rate of 5.7%.
Management’s defensive tenant base and long lease expiries support income resilience, though Citi flags higher gearing and interest expense as key risks to earnings momentum.
The broker raises its target to $4.40 from $4.00 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral.
GENTRACK GROUP LIMITED ((GTK)) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell by UBS. B/H/S: 3/1/0
UBS raises its target price for Gentrack Group to NZ$12.00 from NZ$11.75 and upgrades to Neutral from Sell.
The broker acknowledges 1H earnings were softer than expected, due to project revenue lumpiness and increased investment in utilities R&D and sales but highlights an “impressive” pipeline.
The company reported revenue of NZ$112m and earnings (EBITDA) of NZ$13m, which was -15% below UBS and consensus. Airport earnings exceeded expectations, and a stronger New Zealand dollar added a 7% earnings tailwind, explains the broker.
The broker expects FY25 to be a transitional year as management expands into Asia, the Middle East and Europe.
Management is guiding to revenue of greater than or equal to NZ$230m and earnings margins above 12%, implying to UBS earnings of at least NZ$29m, -15% below consensus.
UBS believes growth will resume in FY26 as international scoping studies convert to longer-term contracts.
ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED ((ILU)) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal weight by Morgan Stanley. B/H/S: 4/1/0
Morgan Stanley believes critical minerals will need a significant increase in supply to meet the fast-growing demand from robotics. One of the challenges in meeting this demand is the rising average lead times for mines.
The broker estimates supply deficits by 2040/2050 of -13%/24% of the market for NdPr, -75%/78% for lithium, -16%/34% for cobalt, -17%/25% for nickel and -0.6%/1.5% for copper, respectively. Rare earth price forecasts have been upgraded
The broker updated its forecasts for Iluka Resources to include financing for the Eneabba refinery, which led to sharp cuts in FY26 and FY27 EPS forecasts. Valuation, however, rose on the upgraded price forecasts.
Target price rises to $4.65 from $3.50. Rating upgraded to Overweight from Equal weight.
LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED ((LYC)) was upgraded to Overweight from Underweight by Morgan Stanley. B/H/S: 2/2/2
Morgan Stanley believes critical minerals will need a significant increase in supply to meet the fast-growing demand from robotics.
The broker fine-tuned near-term production forecasts for Lynas Rare Earths and updated its model to reflect the upgraded price forecasts.
Target price rises to $10.00 from $7.10. Rating upgraded to Overweight from Underweight.
MONASH IVF GROUP LIMITED ((MVF)) was upgraded to Speculative Buy from Hold by Morgans. B/H/S: 4/0/0
Morgans upgrades Monash IVF to Speculative Buy from Hold as the company has rebased earnings guidance for FY25 and the current valuation is viewed as too low.
Management downgraded net profit after tax guidance by -10% to $27.5m from $30$31m due to weaker market conditions in March and ongoing deterioration in April.
Interestingly, Monash has not experienced any “material” changes in new patient registrations post the incorrect embryo transfer at a Brisbane clinic.
The broker lowers net profit after tax forecasts by -11% for FY25, which meets the guidance downgrade. Target price is lowered to $1 from $1.09.
PARAGON CARE LIMITED ((PGC)) was upgraded to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter. B/H/S: 2/0/0
Bell Potter expects Paragon Care to achieve a stronger 2H25 result, including positive advances on site rationalisation/amalgamations and integration of systems, the broker explains.
This could result in notable costs being incurred again in the period, albeit the cost imposts are expected to recede into FY26.
The analyst expects synergies of $12m in savings realised for FY25, which represents around 150 full-time employees post-merger or circa 12% of the workforce.
Bell Potter believes earnings growth expectations for FY26 justify the upgrade in the rating to Buy from Hold. Unchanged target of 52c.
In the bad books: downgrades
DEXUS ((DXS)) was downgraded to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett. B/H/S: 2/2/1
Ord Minnett undertook a deeper analysis of Dexus’ model following allegations by the board of Australia Pacific Airports Corp (APAC) that sale of its shares owned by investors representing the company was mishandled.
The company will defend the allegations, but the broker has downgraded forecasts for external funds under management to $34.3bn in FY26 and $35.7bn in FY27 vs $38.9bn as of December 2024.
The downgrade reflects the risk of the company losing the APAC mandate and other risks, including asset sell-downs to manage redemptions related to its infrastructure funds.
Target price cut to $7.40 from $7.70. Rating cut to Hold from Buy, as the broker notes APAC shares accounted for one-third of its external FUM.
INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED ((IAG)) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy by UBS. B/H/S: 2/3/0
UBS notes Insurance Australia Group’s strategic alliance with Royal Automobile Club of WA, including the purchase of RAC Insurance and a 20-year distribution agreement for RAC Home & Motor Products.
The deal is subject to ACCC approval and will increase the group’s market share in WA for Home & Motor to around 55% from 8%, with total consideration of $1.35bn to be funded internally.
UBS expects the transaction to be EPS positive and meet management’s insurance margin target of 15%.
UBS lifts EPS estimates by 1.6% and 0.1% for FY25/FY26. Target price rises to $9.30 from $8.30 due to higher market valuation ascribed to the stock.
The broker downgrades the stock to Neutral from Buy as there is believed to be “modest” upside from here.
NUFARM LIMITED ((NUF)) was downgraded to Hold from Add by Morgans. B/H/S: 1/4/1
Morgans notes Nufarm’s 1H25 results were below consensus, with a full-year loss now looking likely.
The main disappointment was the underperformance of the Seed Technologies business, and with the company putting it under review, the broker is thinking of various options.
Selling Seed Tech in full or in part may not lead to a good outcome, the broker reckons, as investors will be left with a stake in the lower quality remaining part of the business.
If it doesn’t sell, a large and highly dilutive capital raising could become necessary, especially if operating conditions do not improve. The broker lowered FY25-27 EBITDA forecasts by -20%, -19% and -17%, respectively.
Rating downgraded to Hold from Add. Target price cut to $2.78 from $4.53.
SERKO LIMITED ((SKO)) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie. B/H/S: 3/1/0
Serko’s FY25 revenue, excluding contribution from GetThere, came in at $85.7m, at the lower end of the $85-92m guidance.
For FY26, the company guided to revenue of $115-123m, citing lower-than-expected Australasia and North America managed revenues.
This was lower than market forecasts, and Macquarie highlights the company does not expect GetThere’s 4Q25 revenue to annualise in FY26 due to soft US trading conditions.
Commentary highlights the forecast of $14m is below the company’s base case of $18m at the time of acquisition. The longer-term FY30 outlook was re-iterated. The broker cut EPS forecasts (losses) for FY26-28.
Rating downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target price lowered to NZ$3.17 from NZ$4.38.
SYRAH RESOURCES LIMITED ((SYR)) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie. B/H/S: 1/3/0
A truce on tariffs has eased tensions around critical mineral supply security, while synthetic graphite remains the dominant material in the battery market, highlights Macquarie.
The broker raises its target for Syrah Resources by 11% to 30c after changes in production restart, price realisation, and funding assumptions. Macquarie downgrades to Neutral from Outperform following recent share price strength.
Synthetic graphite remains in oversupply, cautions the analyst, with China maintaining dominance in the battery-grade market, a dynamic that is likely to cap graphite price upside.
TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED ((TWE)) was downgraded to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett. B/H/S: 3/3/0
Ord Minnett lowers its target price for Treasury Wine Estates to $9.50 from $12.00 and downgrades to Hold from Buy, citing mounting earnings headwinds.
The broker is sceptical new CEO Sam Fischer can achieve mid-teen earnings growth in the Penfolds division, particularly with persistent weakness in the US wine market.
Restocking momentum in China is expected to taper off, while soft consumer demand and unresolved US tariffs add further pressure to margins, according to the analyst.
Ord Minnett’s EPS forecasts have been cut by -4.8% for FY25, -13.0% for FY26 and -15.5% for FY27, reflecting a weaker sales outlook and pricing constraints into FY26.
Earnings forecast
Listed below are the companies that have had their forecast current year earnings raised or lowered by the brokers last week. The qualification is that the stock must be covered by at least two brokers. The table shows the previous forecast on an earnings per share basis, the new forecast, and the percentage change.
