For the second week in a row, the top ten percentage falls in average target prices and average forecasts in the tables below were consistently larger than rises.
29Metals received the largest fall in earnings forecast by brokers but the percentage change was exaggerated by small forecast numbers in FY25.
March quarter copper production missed Citi’s forecast by around -20% as a result of lower output at the Golden Grove mine, while zinc production beat the broker’s estimate.
Morgan Stanley’s 2026 and 2027 group EPS forecasts were lowered by -8.4% and -15.3%, respectively, mainly driven by higher cost forecasts at Golden Grove.
Group cash declined by -$86m quarter-on-quarter to $166m and Citi now includes receipt of a final $54m insurance payout in the current quarter following an extreme weather event at Capricorn Copper in March 2023.
Sell-rated Citi pointed out 29Metals is heavily leveraged to base metals pricing and maintained a view additional liquidity will be needed in the medium-term. This broker’s target price was reduced to 12c from 16c.
More positively, the analysts reminded investors copper should be an immediate beneficiary when and if the US starts to ease tariff policies.
Uranium miner Boss Energy and global provider of travel solutions Corporate Travel Management are next on the earnings downgrade list.
Following third quarter results for Boss, Morgan Stanley downgraded its FY25 revenue forecast by -30.5% driven by no sales of Alta Mesa (South Texas) product in FY25 and reduced sales assumed at the Honeymoon project in South Australia.
Regarding Honeymoon, here the broker’s bull case valuation rose by 60c reflecting expansion potential, pushing up the target price for Boss to $2.70 from $2.45 after a further re-weighting towards the bull case scenario.
After Ord Minnett measured the trade volumes for both Boss Energy and Paladin Energy, the two most shorted stocks on the ASX since April 28, the broker suggested current short-covering rallies for their respective share prices will persist.
All seven daily covered brokers in the FNArena database last week passed judgment on Corporate Travel Management’s trading update on May 2, resulting in falls for the average earnings forecast and target price of around -20% and -14%, respectively.
While FY25 guidance was downgraded, with group revenue down by -$29m and earnings revised lower, the analyst at UBS highlighted strong new client momentum.
After reducing its target to $13.55 from $17.60, this broker upgraded to Buy from Neutral in the belief the current share price reflects sufficient downside risk from macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly in the US.
Morgan Stanley downgraded its rating to Equal-weight from Overweight after lowering EPS forecasts by between -28% to -36% across FY25-FY27. This broker noted travel peers have not been immune to downgrades, and, as a result, Corporate Travel Management is no less competitive.
In a developing theme, sector peer Helloworld Travel appeared third on the table for negative changes to targets, behind second placed Reliance Worldwide.
Management at Helloworld downgraded earnings guidance to $52m-$56m from $56m-$62m, on a mix of positive and negative structural and cyclical factors. Ord Minnett noted a change in customer behaviour to short-haul destinations like Asia rather than the US and Europe.
This new trend translates to a reduction in travel spend per trip and overrides paid by airline carriers to these regions, while younger travellers are transitioning away from traditional travel agents.
Positively, management noted forward booking volumes for FY26 have been strong.
Reliance Worldwide’s average target fell by nearly -10% last week after management flagged a -US$25-35m hit to FY26 earnings due to a weaker outlook for US housing and renovation demand, and a projected -US$30m net tariff impact.
Around 30% of Reliance’s cost of goods sold is exposed to potential US tariffs, noted the analysts at UBS, but management is targeting mitigation via sourcing diversification, price increases, and cost management.
Macquarie could see upside risk to this lower guidance, as management has factored in current tariff settings when there is potential for an improving scenario.
UBS also noted Reliance remains well positioned in the US plumbing market as the only push-to-connect manufacturer.
On the flipside, average targets for Strike Energy and Lynas Rare Earths climbed by around 15% and 7%, respectively.
While Ord Minnet’s 31c target is higher than two other brokers in the database, last week the broker downgraded its crude oil price forecasts to US$60/bbl from US$70/bbl in 2025, and to US$70/bbl from US$80/bbl in 2026. Within the Oil and Gas sector, the analysts favour Buy-rated refiners Ampol and Viva Energy.
Lynas Rare Earths’ higher target resulted from UBS becoming more upbeat on the ex-China rare earths space.
In a positive for the company, low price settings to date have restricted new entrants outside China, which sees Lynas uniquely positioned with ready capacity to underpin growing ex-China requirements, highlighted the broker.
Further, the imminent addition of dysprosium (Dy) and terbium (Tb) capacity adds incremental value, noted UBS, which also raised its terminal NdPr volume forecast to 14kt from 12kt.
In the good books: upgrades
AMCOR PLC ((AMC)) was upgraded to Add from Hold by Morgans. B/H/S: 4/2/0
Amcor’s 3Q25 result slightly missed Morgans’ forecast, with constant forex EBIT up 3% vs the broker’s 4% forecast. Volumes rose in flexibles but fell for rigid packaging, with lower volume and higher labour costs pushing rigid packaging EBIT margins down -110bps. The company included two months of Berry Global contribution in the guidance, but it still resulted in a lowering of the top end, with the revised guidance of US72-74c underlying EPS vs US72-76c before. The broker updated forecasts to include Berry Global’s earnings and sees risks to the upside on optimism about management’s capability to integrate deals. Target cut to $16.00 from $16.45. Rating upgraded to Add from Hold.
CORPORATE TRAVEL MANAGEMENT LIMITED ((CTD)) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral by UBS. B/H/S: 4/3/0
Following a trading update, UBS lowers its target for Corporate Travel Management to $13.55 from $17.60 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral. The broker believes the current share price reflects sufficient downside risk from macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly in the US. While FY25 guidance has been downgraded, with group revenue down by -$29m and earnings (EBITDA) revised to around $167m from $197m, the analyst highlights strong new client momentum. New business win momentum has accelerated to $1.6bn per annum total transaction value (TTV) from $1bn TTV per year in FY25. See also CTD downgrade.
NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED ((NST)) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral by Citi. B/H/S: 5/2/0
Citi highlights Evolution Mining has outperformed Northern Star Resources ((NST)) by over 90% in the last 12 months. The analyst attributes this to the degearing of the gold miner’s balance sheet alongside a transparent outlook for key metrics like mine life, capex, and production. Citi suggests FY25 was the year to generate cash flow and profits rather than M&A, and Northern Star’s recent earnings downgrades for FY25 and FY26 have not boosted investor sentiment. The analyst expects the underperformance of Northern Star to reverse during 4Q once FY26 downgrades are in place. Citi upgrades Northern Star Resources to Buy from Neutral with a higher target price of $22 with FY26 consensus gold price estimates at $4,760/oz against the spot price of $5,255/oz.
ORICA LIMITED ((ORI)) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral by Citi. B/H/S: 6/0/0
Ahead of Orica’s 1H25 result this week, Citi has upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral. Target price trimmed to $18.90 from $19.00. The broker believes demand for explosives could accelerate, but heightened competition, tariff-related uncertainties and increasing underground operations are headwinds. The analyst forecasts EBIT contribution from “Beyond Blasting” to reach 22% by FY22. Other upside risks come from gold production driving specialty chemical mining and uplift in exploration boosting digital solutions.
WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED ((WDS)) was upgraded to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett. B/H/S: 2/4/0
Ord Minnett has downgraded its crude oil price forecasts to US$60/bbl from US$70/bbl in 2025, and to US$70/bbl from US$80/bbl in 2026. The broker assumes an AUD/USD rate of 63c for 2025 and 65c for 2026. Further out, the oil price is expected to revert to the US$70US$80/bbl range, as a higher price will be needed to boost investment in new supply. Ord Minnett’s analysis also suggests the average time for oil prices to bottom from a peak in the cycle is around five months and therefore recommends investors “buy the dips” on selective stocks. Karoon Energy ((KAR)) is Buy rated, along with Santos ((STO)) and Woodside Energy , which has been upgraded from Hold. The broker also favours refiners Ampol ((ALD)) and Viva Energy ((VEA)), both Buy rated. Target price for Woodside Energy is set at $25, down from $27, with EPS estimates cut by -8% and -46.9% for 2025 and 2026 respectively.
In the bad books: downgrades
APA GROUP ((APA)) was downgraded to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett. B/H/S: 2/3/0
Target price for APA Group remains at $8.60 with no change in EPS estimates. The stock is downgraded to Accumulate from Buy.
AROA BIOSURGERY LIMITED ((ARX)) moved to Speculative Buy from Add by Morgans. B/H/S: 2/0/0
Morgans moves Aroa Biosurgery to Speculative Buy from Add and retains a 93c target price. The analyst highlights 4Q25 results which met expectations, with a focus on NZ$1.1m in positive cash flow. Myriad sales rose 32% year-on-year, while OviTex sales increased 17%. Cash at the end of March was NZ$22m, down from NZ$29.5m a year earlier. Management reiterated FY25 guidance for revenue of NZ$81NZ$84m and earnings (EBITDA) of NZ$2NZ$4m and believes the 10% US tariff on imported goods from NZ will be largely offset by other commercial agreements. The company is due to report FY25 results on May 27, with guidance for FY26 anticipated to be announced.
BURGUNDY DIAMOND MINES LIMITED ((BDM)) was downgraded to Speculative Hold from Buy by Bell Potter. B/H/S: 0/1/0
Bell Potter downgrades Burgundy Diamond Mines to Speculative Hold from Buy after halving its target price to 5c from 10c following a weak March quarter and ongoing operational risks. Production of 0.77 million carats (mct) missed the broker’s 1.16mct estimate due to ore availability issues during the transition from the Sable pit to Point Lake, explains the broker. Sales of 1.2mct were met through a large inventory drawdown, but lower-quality diamonds caused realised prices and revenue to fall -33% and -28%, respectively, point out the analysts. Adjusted earnings (EBITDA) were just US$7m versus Bell Potter’s US$30m forecast. Guidance and an updated mine plan are expected by mid-2025, with the bulk sample from Point Lake seen as a key catalyst by the analysts for establishing the 2025 outlook. Bell Potter warns the balance sheet remains under pressure and points at the exposure to volatile diamond markets and unresolved operational execution risk.
BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED ((BSL)) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy by Citi. B/H/S: 3/2/0
Citi downgrades Bluescope Steel to Neutral from Buy, citing share price outperformance and a more balanced risk-reward outlook. The broker highlights a recent solid operational performance and a valuation discount to US peers, yet macro headwinds are building. These include rising US steel import pressure, softening forward US pricing, and below-average Asia export spreads. Spot US hot rolled coil (HRC) prices remain elevated, but forward prices have dropped circa -10% month-on-month, note the analysts. Increased ASEAN and Chinese steel imports are expected to weigh on margins in H2 of 2025. BlueScope’s Asia-facing exports remain under pressure, highlights Citi, with current HRC spreads at US$207/t versus a long-run average of US$245/t, impacted by elevated Chinese steel exports. Citi retains a $26.50 target price.
CORPORATE TRAVEL MANAGEMENT LIMITED ((CTD)) was downgraded to Equal weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley. B/H/S: 4/3/0
Morgan Stanley downgrades Corporate Travel Management to Equal weight from Overweight, and the target price falls to $11.80 from $15.30. The company downgraded earnings guidance, which the analyst does not view as a surprise given the increase in economic uncertainty. The extent of the decline by -30%, versus Flight Centre Travel Group down -18%, reflects uncertainty around the annualised impacts, new business wins, cost-out potential, and other less visible factors.
The broker lowers EPS forecasts by -28% to -36% for FY25FY27 but believes the travel peers have not been immune to downgrades and Corporate Travel Management is no less competitive. Industry view: In-Line. See also CTD upgrade.
ENDEAVOUR GROUP LIMITED ((EDV)) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy by UBS. B/H/S: 1/4/0
Endeavour’ Group’s 3Q25 sales fell -1.7% to $2.84bn, with Retail down -3.1% and Hotels up by 5.1%. Retail missed consensus and UBS expectations, driven by competitive pressure, weaker liquor trends, and soft like-for-like growth of -3.7%, while Hotels outperformed on resilience in gaming and strength in food and beverage. Execution concerns, especially in Retail, and limited confidence in an EBIT margin recovery are behind the broker’s downgrade to Neutral from Buy. UBS also flags increased promotional intensity, ongoing One Endeavour separation costs, and rising industry competition as key headwinds. The target price falls to $4.25 from $4.50.
HELIA GROUP LIMITED ((HLI)) was downgraded to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie. B/H/S: 0/0/1
Helia Group’s 1Q 2025 trading update revealed better-than-expected net profit after tax due to negative claims, Macquarie observes. The company also pointed to the potential increase of the government’s First Home Guarantee Scheme, which is expected to be adverse for gross written premiums. The broker highlights net profit after tax at $68.2m was above the 1H25 forecast of $40.2m, and positive conditions continue to bode well for reserve releases. Macquarie lifts FY25/FY26 EPS estimates by 15% and 3%, respectively, due to lower claims. Earnings estimates further down the track are lowered because of reduced yields impacting investment returns, the broker explains. Target price slips by -9% to $3.25 from $3.55 and the stock is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral.
PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED ((PTM)) was downgraded to Sell from Hold by Bell Potter. B/H/S: 0/0/2
Funds under management (FUM) by Platinum Asset Management fell by -6.1% in April to $9.65bn, driven by -$243m in net outflows and -$386m from investment performance and currency impacts, explains Bell Potter. The result was worse-than-expected, with outflows nearly double the broker’s forecast. It’s noted a -$958m institutional mandate loss, effective May 9, will likely remove around -$10m in annual revenue. The analysts ponder whether this redemption was expected when the merger with L1 was announced last week. The broker lowers its target price to 52c from 58c and downgrades to Sell from Hold, citing uncertainty from the mandate loss.
SGH LIMITED ((SGH)) was downgraded to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter. B/H/S: 3/1/0
Bell Potter downgrades SGH Ltd to Hold from Buy and cuts its target to $54.50 from $57.00, citing a stretched valuation. While mining equipment demand remains robust, providing a strong near-term outlook for WesTrac, Australian residential approvals are subdued, and construction material prices have declined. The latter suggests to the analysts softer conditions for Boral ((BLD)). Bell Potter expects management will deliver mid-to-high single-digit EPS growth but sees profitability improvements from Boral becoming harder to achieve. Key risks are linked to mining activity, construction policy, energy prices, and reliance on the CAT-WesTrac dealer model, according to the broker.
SMARTGROUP CORPORATION LIMITED ((SIQ)) was downgraded to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter. B/H/S: 3/3/0
Bell Potter assesses Smartgroup Corp’s 1Q25 as positive but lowered forecasts to account for weaker settlement growth. The broker highlights 21% of new car orders in 1Q comprised PHEV vehicles, but to qualify for FBT exemption, they had to settle by March. This raises settlement risk. Trend in leasing yields was strong despite continued price falls, the broker notes. EPS forecast for FY25 was unchanged, but FY26 was cut by -2%. Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target cut to $8.50 from $10.15 on lower forward PE in line with historical trend.
STRIKE ENERGY LIMITED ((STX)) was downgraded to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett. B/H/S: 1/2/0
Ord Minnett has downgraded its crude oil price forecasts to US$60/bbl from US$70/bbl in 2025, and to US$70/bbl from US$80/bbl in 2026. The broker assumes an AUD/USD rate of 63c for 2025 and 65c for 2026. Further out, the oil price is expected to revert to the US$70US$80/bbl range, as a higher price will be needed to boost investment in new supply. Ord Minnett’s analysis also suggests the average time for oil prices to bottom from a peak in the cycle is around five months and therefore recommends investors “buy the dips” on selective stocks. Karoon Energy is Buy rated, along with Santos ((STO)) and Woodside Energy ((WDS)), which has been upgraded from Hold. The broker also favours refiners Ampol ((ALD)) and Viva Energy ((VEA)), both Buy rated. Target price for Strike Energy is set at 31c, with EPS estimate cut by -18.1% for FY26. The stock is downgraded to Hold from Buy.
TECHNOLOGY ONE LIMITED ((TNE)) was downgraded to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter. B/H/S: 1/6/0
Bell Potter downgrades TechnologyOne to Hold from Buy while lifting the target price to $31 from $29 due to an expected robust result at the upcoming May 20 market update, plus a higher valuation ascribed to the stock, alongside its safe haven status. The broker expects the company to post a strong report and forecasts 14% growth in revenue with profit before tax growth of 19%, on a rise in margin to 26.4% from 25.1% a year earlier. Management is also anticipated to back up the result with strong guidance for FY25 (year to September) and profit before tax of 14%18%, which is above FY24 at 12%16%. Market consensus is anticipating growth in profit before tax of 19% in FY25, so the analyst believes even guidance upgrades by management will not result in consensus upgrades.
Earnings forecast
Listed below are the companies that have had their forecast current year earnings raised or lowered by the brokers last week. The qualification is that the stock must be covered by at least two brokers. The table shows the previous forecast on an earnings per share basis, the new forecast, and the percentage change.
