For the week ending Friday 5 September 2025, FNArena tracked six upgrades and 10 downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.
The positive change to average earnings table reflects earnings ‘beats’ for Southern Cross Media, Harvey Norman, and McMillan Shakespeare and ‘misses’ for IGO Ltd, South32, Lotus Resources, Nickel Industries, ReadyTech Holdings, and Inghams Group.
Positive changes to average targets also reflected an earnings ‘beat’ by Tabcorp Holdings, while negative changes to targets reflect disappointments from ARN Media, EVT Ltd, and WiseTech Global.
Four of the 10 upward revisions to targets align with results that beat expectations, while double this ratio of downward revisions corresponds to disappointments.
Nufarm appears in the earnings downgrade table below, this week at the top, after analysts at Citi and Morgans updated their research. Separate to reporting season, management at Nufarm (September year-end) issued a trading update where metrics came in below consensus across most measures.
While Crop Protection margins are expected to improve as lower cost-of-goods-sold combine with a gradual uplift in volumes, Citi remained cautious on Seed Technologies. It’s thought the persistence of weak fish oil prices and the drag from an ongoing strategic review of this division once deemed full of promise will weigh.
Morgans noted holding over Omega-3 inventory means net debt is now materially higher than expected and far too high at three times earnings. Unfortunately, the broker concluded, this will likely result in Nufarm selling the best part of the company (Seed Technologies) to reduce debt.
Despite FY25 results for Aeris Resources meeting market expectations, the company’s average FY26 earnings forecast fell by around -33% as new coverage by Morgans included lower forecasts than among its peers. Aeris provides exposure to copper and gold through its cornerstone assets Tritton in NSW and Cracow in Queensland. Together, they delivered 42.2kt copper equivalent production in FY25, noted the analysts, and generate steady cash flow. Exploration is central to the company’s strategy, explained Morgans, with spending to increase in FY26 across near-mine extensions and district-scale greenfield targets at Tritton, Cracow and Jaguar. Morgans begins with a 12-month target of 31c and a Speculative Buy rating.
At first glance, the positions of Pexa Group, Boss Energy, and Capricorn Metals in the earnings upgrade table appear at odds with their respective reporting of financials. A change in Macquarie’s valuation method for Pexa Group resulted in a lift of the broker’s target to $17.30 from $14.72. This broker decided to look through weaker-than-expected results in the belief disappointing Digital results will incentivise management to divest these assets, allowing for greater focus on the core and value-driving PEXA platform. Morgans, which upgraded Pexa to Accumulate from Hold, was also positive on International progress, with the UK platform build completed and full product launch due in the first half of FY26.
Using Boss Energy and Capricorn Metals as examples, it should be noted when looking at earnings forecasts, we are no longer comparing apples with apples, as some of the upward moves stem from brokers rolling forward their financial models to FY26 forecasts (companies having released FY25 financials).
Separate to the earnings disappointment for Pilbara Minerals in the prior week, Morgan Stanley raised its earnings forecasts for the company last week. The broker has a balanced view on lithium prices, with demand seen resilient for the rest of 2025. Pilbara Minerals has a lot of expansion potential at Pilgangoora and Morgan Stanley expects production to improve and unit cost to fall after P1000 Project at its Pilgangoora lithium operation in Western Australia is commissioned.
Elsewhere, earnings forecasts for Genesis Minerals received a boost last week after Shaw and Partners raised its gold price forecasts for the years ahead. Genesis Minerals is among the gold stocks under coverage expected to benefit most from rising gold prices, according to the analysts, who lifted the company’s target to $5.40 from $4.40 and upgraded to Buy, High Risk from Hold. Genesis is also Macquarie’s top gold pick in the mid cap space.
This broker last week switched its large-cap gold preference to Outperform-rated Northern Star Resources away from Newmont Corp (now Neutral).
Underweight-rated Evolution Mining, whose shares have rallied 77% so far in 2025, is Macquarie’s third choice among large cap options.
In the good books: Upgrades
DOWNER EDI LIMITED ((DOW)) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie. B/H/S: 2/1/0
During reporting season, Downer EDI delivered FY25 earnings (EBITA) margin of 4.4%, above management’s 4.2% target. Macquarie now expects margins above 4.5% in FY25-26. The broker sees further upside beyond FY26 with margin improvement of around 20bps annually to 5.3% in FY28, supported by strong end-market demand. Macquarie highlights a $4.5bn pipeline where Downer is a preferred bidder, including defence contracts worth $400m annually. Upside is also expected via power, social housing, defence, rail and a gradually recovering New Zealand. The broker upgrades to Outperform from Neutral and keeps a $7.65 target price.
NRW HOLDINGS LIMITED ((NWH)) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie. B/H/S: 4/0/0
Macquarie upgrades NRW Holdings to Outperform from Neutral and lifts the target price to $4.45 from $3.95 previously. NRW is acquiring Fredon for -$200m (total), which is very positive according to the analyst, adding a fourth pillar ‘Electrical, Mechanical, Infrastructure, and Technology’ (EMIT), which complements the existing Civil, Mining, and Equipment Technology divisions. New markets will be opened up from the energy transition, electrification, automation, and digital sectors. Part of Fredon’s revenue is generated from maintenance services at around 15%, with a $1bn work in hand, a $3.6bn pipeline, and around $2bn in submitted tenders. The acquisition is expected to be highly earnings accretive, and Macquarie raises its EPS forecasts by 12% for FY26 and 17% for FY27. See also NWH downgrade.
PEXA GROUP LIMITED ((PXA)) was upgraded to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans. B/H/S: 5/0/0
Morgans notes Pexa Group’s FY25 profit of $41m came in -11% below the consensus estimate, while earnings (EBITDA) of $135m rose 7% but were a -4% miss. Guidance for FY26 was softer than expected by the broker, with revenue and earnings both tracking below consensus. The analyst highlights positives including $56m free cash flow (FCF), lower gearing at 1.8 times from 2.7 times, and steady performance in the Australian Exchange, where revenue and earnings both grew around 8% year-on-year. International progress was made, notes Morgans, with the UK platform build completed and full product launch due in 1H26. Digital Solutions also achieved its maiden break-even result, with strong retention and annuity-style revenue. Morgans raises its target price to $16.87 from $16.30 and upgrades to an Accumulate rating.
SITEMINDER LIMITED ((SDR)) was upgraded to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans. B/H/S: 6/0/0
Morgans raises its target for SiteMinder to $8.10 from $4.90 and upgrades to Accumulate from Hold following FY25 results. While results were in line with the broker’s expectations, subscription growth accelerated to 17% in H2. Transaction annual recurring revenue (ARR) also lifted 48%, well ahead of revenue growth, supported by the Smart Platform explain the analysts. Delivery of positive underlying free cash flow (FCF) was another key positive takeaway for Morgans. Guidance for FY26 revenue of $280m was broadly in line with consensus, observes the broker, with Smart Distribution and Channels Plus adding incremental growth. Morgans believes the earnings downgrade cycle is over for the company and remains attracted to SiteMinder’s opportunity to monetise $85bn of gross booking value (GBV).
TECHNOLOGY ONE LIMITED ((TNE)) was upgraded to Hold from Sell by Bell Potter. B/H/S: 1/5/0
Bell Potter upgrades TechnologyOne to Hold from Sell and retains its $35.75 target price with no change to earnings forecasts for growth in profit before tax of 19% for FY25, 20% for FY26 and FY27, which is not dissimilar from consensus. The upgrade comes from the sell-off in the share price, which now sits above the target by around 5%, with risk seen for an upgrade at consensus market level. While technology stocks have been sold off on higher bond yields, the analyst does not see much risk of disappointment when TechnologyOne reports FY25 results in November. Some risk might pop up if the market has already priced in an earnings beat beforehand.
XERO LIMITED ((XRO)) was upgraded to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett. B/H/S: 6/0/0
Xero displayed its products to accountants and bookkeepers at its annual conference in Brisbane, and Ord Minnett reckons it showcased initiatives that could materially lift ARPU over time, though monetisation is not yet formalised. Future upside for the Syft Analytics product is expected to come from enhanced AI integration to drive business analytics. Just Ask Xero has no monetisation model but is expected to support ARPU growth via plan bundling. The broker believes the conference strengthened its view the company can reach its ambitious NZ$4.2bn-plus revenue target by FY28. Rating upgraded to Buy from Accumulate on valuation grounds. Target unchanged at $200.
In the bad books: Downgrades
CURVEBEAM AI LIMITED ((CVB)) was downgraded to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter. B/H/S: 0/1/0
Bell Potter downgrades Curvebeam AI to a Speculative Hold from Speculative Buy with a target set at 15c from 18c post FY25 results. The company took 26 new orders for devices in FY25 compared to 22 in the prior year, and the analyst had estimated around 20, which drove revenue to $12.1m and gross profit of $6.7m. The adjusted earnings (EBITDA) loss of -$11.1m was as expected. Further device sales are awaiting the validation of the HiRise device by Stryker for use with the Mako robotic surgery device. The analyst anticipates validation in 4Q26. Bell Potter downgrades its FY26 revenue forecasts in line with levels achieved in FY25. Management offered no guidance on Mako validation completion, hence the downgrade in rating.
CATALYST METALS LIMITED ((CYL)) was downgraded to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans. B/H/S: 1/0/0
Morgans reassesses its gold coverage on the back of the ongoing rise in the gold price, lifting its long-term gold price assumption to US$2,500/oz from US$2,200/oz. Catalyst Metals is re-emerging as one of the broker’s preferred mid-cap picks. The analyst highlights its attractive growth profile with expected gold production of 191koz by FY28 and trading at an attractive relative valuation. There is no hedging or debt, which gives leverage to its low-cost production growth profile. Target rises to $9.26 from $8.82, and the rating is downgraded to Accumulate from Buy.
DOCTOR CARE ANYWHERE GROUP PLC ((DOC)) was downgraded to Speculative Hold from Buy by Bell Potter. B/H/S: 0/1/0
Bell Potter downgrades Doctor Care Anywhere to Speculative Hold from Speculative Buy, with the target raised to 17c from 12c, which includes any potential dilution from the convertible note that remains an overhang on the stock. Post the cessation of the secondary care pathway, the analyst points to a decline in interim 2025 revenue of -12% to GBP17.9m, with an improvement in the gross margin by 820pts to 63.3%. Operating costs and overheads fell by net circa -27%, or savings of GBP3.8m. Earnings (EBITDA) came in at GBP2.8m, which met guidance. Bell Potter believes the change in the operating model has been highly successful, with average revenue per consult up 4.75% in 1H2025 over the prior year.
MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED ((MIN)) was downgraded to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett. B/H/S: 3/1/2
Ord Minnett reckons Mineral Resources’ FY25 result highlighted stronger execution and disciplined capital management, with higher revenue leading to a beat at the operating earnings line. The broker is pleased with a more realistic guidance for FY25 vs the ambitious forecasts provided in recent years. Volumes met forecasts and unit cost guidance was lower than expected. Capex guidance was lifted for FY26, but the broker expects it to reduce from FY27. Among the positives was the run-rate at Onslow, which would trigger $200m contingent payment if maintained for 3 months. Earn-out at Hancock Prospecting is another positive, with the share in $327m payment tied to drilling results on sold permits. Debt refinancing of maturing May 2027 bond at a lower rate is also a tailwind FY26 EPS forecast more than doubled, and FY27 lifted by 43.7%. Target rises to $40 from $33. Rating downgraded to Accumulate from Buy.
NEWMONT CORPORATION REGISTERED ((NEM)) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie. B/H/S: 4/1/0
Macquarie switches its large-cap gold preference to Outperform-rated Northern Star Resources away from Newmont Corp, which is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform following a share price rally. With fewer near-term risks, the broker sees scope for a positive re-rating of Northern Star, while Newmont’s strong performance is already priced in. The target price for Newmont Corp rises by 2% to $111.
NRW HOLDINGS LIMITED ((NWH)) was downgraded to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans. B/H/S: 4/0/0
NRW Holdings will acquire Fredon Industries for up to -$200m, funded through debt. The deal is capital light, notes Morgans, immediately EPS accretive, and takes leverage to 0.7 times earnings (EBITDA). The broker highlights Fredon expands NRW’s exposure into defence, health, education, transport and data centres, with $1bn work in hand and a $3.6bn pipeline. The acquisition also establishes a new Electrical, Mechanical, Infrastructure and Technology division. NRW has a strong history of low-multiple acquisitions, points out the analyst, with Fredon’s long-term customer base underpinning stable earnings. Morgans raises its FY26 profit forecast by 10% and FY27-28 by 12-13%. The target is increased to $4.50 from $4.20 and the broker downgrades to Accumulate from Buy. See also NWH upgrade.
NEXTDC LIMITED ((NXT)) was downgraded to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans. B/H/S: 6/0/0
NextDC’s FY25 result was in line with Morgans’ expectations as was FY26 guidance, but FY27 guidance is higher. The ramp-up profile of contracted mega-watts is faster than anticipated. The pipeline is larger than ever and setting up a partnership in Japan and JVs for S4/S7 will lower NextDC’s equity requirements, Morgans notes. While none of these items are totally new, collectively they represent to the broker good reasons for the share price to rally strongly. Target rises to $19.00 from $18.80, downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (no specific reason provided by the broker).
SOUTH32 LIMITED ((S32)) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie. B/H/S: 3/3/0
Macquarie cuts its target price for South32 to $2.70 from $3.20 and downgrades to Neutral from Outperform following FY25 results. Earnings (EBITDA) were in line with the broker’s forecast, though profit came in -5% adrift of the consensus estimate and the dividend was a -7% miss due to weaker free cash flow (FCF). Guidance for FY26 and FY27 volumes is broadly consistent with Macquarie’s forecasts except at Cannington, where lower grades drive a 27% cut to ore milled. Silver, lead and zinc production are all well below expectations. Company-wide costs are set to rise, cautions the broker, with Cannington, South African Manganese and Sierra Gorda all showing material cost inflation. Capex guidance of -US$1.4bn is below consensus.
SOLVAR LIMITED ((SVR)) was downgraded to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter. B/H/S: 1/1/0
Bell Potter assesses Solvar’s FY25 result as mixed, with net profit up 84% y/y and dividend up 40% to 14c. However, at the reported net profit line, it missed consensus by -1% on lower net interest income and higher bad debt charges than expected. The Australian loan book rose 5.3% y/y to $832m and beat the broker’s forecast. However, originations of $389m were down -2.5% y/y and reflected a -6% y/y decline in 2H originations. The broker is now less confident its 11% growth forecast for FY26-27 will be met but has still retained them. The new Bennji business is not expected to make much impact in the short term, but the broker sees it adding 12% to the loan book in 2-3 years’ time. Target unchanged at $1.60. Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy on share price gains.
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION ((WBC)) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy by UBS. B/H/S: 0/1/3
UBS downgrades Westpac to Neutral from Buy due to the share price appreciation. Target price lifts to $38 from $36. The analyst points to some valuable insights shared by management at the bank’s Business and Wealth update to investors. No new guidance was offered, but the aim to grow transactional banking and liability strategies is the target, along with CommBank ((CBA)) and National Australia Bank ((NAB)). Westpac is aiming to catch up to peers in this vertical space, which represents around 32% of net profit after tax, and is making investments in bankers, automation to boost credit decision-making, and improved productivity through BizEdge. Lending in the business segment continues to focus on Agri, Professional Services, and Health and, commentary suggests, is a good source of group funding.
Earnings forecast
Listed below are the companies that have had their forecast current year earnings raised or lowered by the brokers last week. The qualification is that the stock must be covered by at least two brokers. The table shows the previous forecast on an earnings per share basis, the new forecast, and the percentage change.
