In the last week of the reporting season, ending Friday, August 29, 2025, FNArena tracked twenty-five upgrades and forty-four downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.
Positive changes to average targets arose from earnings ‘beats’ by Zip Co, Codan, Tabcorp Holdings, Aussie Broadband, Eagers Automotive, Lovisa Holdings, and Cobram Estate Olives.
Negative changes to targets reflect disappointments from Reece, Guzman y Gomez, Inghams Group, Domino’s Pizza Enterprises, and Woolworths Group.
Zip Co’s average target price rose by 37%, the largest move, after EPS forecasts for FY26 and FY27 of three daily covered brokers in the FNArena database jumped by 33% and 66%, respectively.
On the flipside, Reece suffered the largest fall in consensus target after its earnings forecast for FY26 was reduced by just over -14%.
Seven of the ten upward revisions to targets align with results that beat expectations, while the same ratio of downward revisions corresponds to disappointments.
Increases in earnings forecasts outpaced reductions. It should be noted, however, we are no longer comparing apples with apples, as some of the upward moves stem from brokers rolling forward their financial models to FY26 forecasts (companies having released FY25 financials).
The earnings tables show the biggest increase to forecasts was reserved for Lynas Rare Earths, despite a reporting seasons ‘miss’ (see Monitor for commentary), while Megaport received the largest decrease in earnings forecasts.
Lithium miners IGO Ltd and Pilbara Minerals appear in the earnings upgrade table, despite disappointing against expectations in the reporting season, helped by higher commodity pricing forecasts by UBS.
This broker has yet again raised its forecasts for lithium to US$1,250/1,150/1,350/t for 2026-28 versus spot of US$940/t “driven by Chinese supply disruptions and potential for more”.
Pilbara Minerals remains Macquarie’s preferred lithium producer given its operating leverage and solid balance sheet. This analyst sees upside from both productivity improvements and cost-out programs at the Pilgan operation, the company’s flagship mine located at Pilgangoora in Western Australia’s Pilbara region.
At first glance, the positions of Paladin Energy and Stanmore Resources in the earnings upgrade table appear at odds with their respective reporting of financials.
Positively, management at Paladin assigned a valuation of US$1.325bn to the company’s Patterson Lake South project, prompting Shaw and Partners to upgrade its own valuation to US$1.088bn from US$917m.
Also, UBS has turned incrementally more bullish on uranium, suggesting the U3O8 spot price has plateaued near US$75/lb and fundamentals are improving.
Ord Minnett considers Paladin its top uranium growth pick under the broker’s coverage on the ASX, with production forecast to reach circa 17mlb annually by FY33, a 24% compound growth rate from FY25.
For Stanmore Resources, here the percentage uptick in average earnings forecast was exaggerated by the small forecast numbers involved.
Ord Minnett noted profit was better than expected due to lower depreciation, while cash of US$181m was in line with debt at US$272m, slightly lower than anticipated.
Apparent aberrations in the earnings downgrade table relate to NextDC, Cobram Estate Olives, and Perseus Mining, which all exceeded expectations during reporting season.
NextDC’s FY25 results were positively received, with the majority of earnings upgrades by brokers relating to FY27 due to a faster than expected ramp up in billing. Shorter-term, higher spending weighs on forecasts.
Similarly, the positives for Cobram Estate Olives are expected further out. In the US, pricing and mix are expected to provide tailwinds, noted Shaw and Partners, with significant supply expected from FY27-29 from maturing groves. The company’s average target price increased by nearly 20% last week in anticipation.
For Perseus Mining, UBS explained FY26 will be an investment year with lower production, higher costs, and negative free cash flow due to funding of the Central Ashanti Mine in Ghana and the Nyanzaga gold project in Tanzania.
Separate to reporting season, management at Nufarm (September year-end) issued a trading update where metrics came in slightly below consensus across most measures, noted Macquarie, including leverage guidance, net debt, and implied earnings.
Operationally, the analyst assured investors conditions are broadly unchanged versus the first half, with AgChem earnings momentum continuing amidst margin improvement across “most markets”.
Bell Potter also noted Nufarm’s balance sheet is trending better on leverage despite higher absolute debt, leaving its 12-month target price unchanged at $3.45.
Sigma Healthcare received two upgrades by separate brokers following its maiden FY25 result as a merged entity with Chemist Warehouse which represents a full twelve months’ contribution from Chemist Warehouse and four and a half months of Sigma.
Following an earnings beat, the average target for Lovisa Holdings rose by around 20%, but the retailer received three downgrades from brokers upon a rapidly surging share price.
Elsewhere, Fortescue and Lynas Rare Earths received respectively three and two downgrades, after their respective earnings releases disappointed.
In the good books
Upgrades
ALCIDION GROUP LIMITED ((ALC)) was upgraded to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 1/0/0
Alcidion Group’s FY25 revenue of $40.8m rose 10% year-on-year, in line with Bell Potter’s forecasts, driven by the $8.4m upfront licence fee from the National Crime Information Center (NCIC) contract.
Earnings (EBITDA) of $4.8m delivered a $9.4m turnaround from FY24, beating both guidance (of above $4.5m) and the broker’s $4.7m forecast, supported by higher margins and a $0.9m currency benefit.
The group ended June with $17.7m cash and no debt, delivering its maiden profit on the back of the NCIC hospital contract, explain the analysts.
FY26 guidance includes being earnings and operating cash flow positive in FY26 and recognition of $140m contracted revenue through to 2030.
The broker makes modest forecast reductions, raising forecasts for operating expenses and depreciation. The target price remains unchanged at 13c. Bell Potter upgrades to a Buy rating from Hold.
ACCENT GROUP LIMITED ((AX1)) was upgraded to Buy from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 5/0/0
Accent Group’s FY25 EBIT was down -0.2% but came at the upper end of the $108-111m guidance, Morgans notes. Sales growth in 2H was down -1.7% y/y but had worsened in the final 3 weeks to -6% decline from -2.5% in the 23 weeks prior.
On the positive side, sales momentum improved in FY26 with a 0.8% y/y rise in the first seven weeks. However, the FY26 EBIT guidance of high to mid-single digit growth disappointed.
The broker cut FY26 EBIT forecast by -2% to match the guidance, estimating -3% lower revenue on lower store openings.
Target price trimmed to $1.65 from $1.85. Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold.
BEACON LIGHTING GROUP LIMITED ((BLX)) was upgraded to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/0/0
Beacon Lighting missed FY25 earnings expectations with net profit after tax below Morgans’ estimate by -6.6% and -2.3% lower than consensus. Like for like sales of 1.5% growth came in under forecast by -2%.
Sales accelerated into 4Q25, the analyst suggests around 3% growth with mixed performance across states. Qld, WA and SA robust, and NSW, VIC soft. Trade sales were a positive, up 24% and representing 40% of “all relevant sales” for FY25.
Gross margin rose 20bps to 69%, a beat as the mix switched to trade and was viewed as a good result given promotional activity. Morgans lowers its net profit after tax forecasts by -9% and -7% for higher D&A and interest cost assumptions.
The company is well positioned for a turnaround in consumer sentiment, and with only 6% of the $2bn trade market for lighting & fans there is considerable scope for market share growth.
Stock is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold. Target rises to $3.80 from $3.55.
BRAMBLES LIMITED ((BXB)) was upgraded to Hold from Trim by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/4/0
Morgans described Brambles’ FY25 result as solid, delivered amid a challenging macroeconomic backdrop especially in the US. Sales missed the broker’s forecast by -1% but EBIT was 2% ahead.
Like-for-like volumes fell -1% y/y but the momentum improved in 4Q25, with net new business growth of 3%. The broker expects this to bode well for FY26 outlook.
For FY26, the company expects 3-5% sales growth in constant forex terms, and the broker is forecasting 4%. The broker reckons margin expansion remains key with FY28 margin improvement upgraded to 300bps vs FY24 from 200bps before.
The broker lifted FY26-28 EBIT forecast by 5-7% on higher confidence in the company’s execution. Rating rises to Hold from Trim.
Target increases to $25.70 from $19.75.
COLES GROUP LIMITED ((COL)) was upgraded to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 6/1/0
Coles Group’s FY25 underlying net profit of $1.104bn beat Bell Potter’s forecast of $1.077bn. Revenue and EBITDA were largely in line.
The broker notes the underlying result absorbed -$111m in supply chain implementation and duplication costs, and non-recurring revenue linked to liquor.
Supermarket like-for-like sales grew 4.7% y/y in the first 8 weeks of FY26 while liquor business saw flat growth. Store numbers are expected to increase by 10 while liquor store numbers are expected to decline by -6.
FY26 net profit forecast unchanged but FY27 lowered by -3%.
Target rises to $24.40 from $22.10 on roll-forward and lower net debt. Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold.
DOWNER EDI LIMITED ((DOW)) was upgraded to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/2/0
Following Downer EDI’s FY25 results, Ord Minnett raises its target to $7.70 from $6.80 and upgrades to Accumulate from Hold.
The company reported operating earnings ahead of the broker’s forecast as $100m in cost savings drove 1.15 percentage points of margin expansion.
A higher dividend payout was declared and a $230m buyback announced.
Management expects FY26 revenue to be flat to -3% due reduced work on the Queensland train manufacturing project and the end of a Victorian contract. This will be partially offset by stronger margins, the broker believes.
DURATEC LIMITED ((DUR)) was upgraded to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/0/0
Ord Minnett notes Duratec’s FY25 revenue came at the bottom end of guidance range and missed its forecast, but EBITDA of $53m was ahead of its $50.6m forecast. Gross profit margin expansion of 130bps aided the beat.
Cash conversion was 98%, helping boost the net cash position to $48.6m, beating the broker’s $35.6m forecast.
The highlight was commentary on order book which stood at $390m excluding MSE revenue and eight current ECI projects that could add another $500m. Pipeline was strong at $4.16bn.
Target rises to $1.95 from $1.80. Rating upgraded to Buy from Accumulate.
EVT LIMITED ((EVT)) was upgraded to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/0/0
EVT Ltd reported a 13% rise in net profit after tax to $39.3m, which missed Ord Minnett’s forecast of $43.9m, with management stressing the cinemas business performed well against a lack of blockbuster releases and cyclone disruptions.
The cinema line-up for FY26 is looking much better, but as the analyst states, forecasting this division remains challenging.
Hotels remain a bright spot, with a positive medium-term outlook. The higher construction costs post-covid should boost the value of existing hotels, with higher room rates.
Fair value for its property portfolio was unchanged at $2.3bn, with asset sales of -$310m since the previous estimate.
Ord Minnett lowers its EPS estimates by -10% for FY26 and -12% for FY27. The target slips to $17.09 from $18.94.
The stock is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate, given the fall in the share price and an ongoing positive 12-month outlook.
GOODMAN GROUP ((GMG)) was upgraded to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/2/0
Goodman Group’s FY25 operating EPS (OEPS) grew 9.8% y/y, beating guidance but was in line with Morgans’ forecast and the consensus.
FY26 guidance is for 9% OEPS growth which the broker thinks is conservative as the REIT typically upgrades guidance through the year, though it didn’t do so in FY25.
The broker notes data centres now account for 57% of work in progress, expecting this to drive production rate over the medium term, while noting commencement yields are 9.2% vs portfolio average of 7.5%.
The backdrop for logistics is soft but supported by supply constraints in key markets. The broker cut FY26 OEPS forecast by -1% and FY27 by -4%.
Target rises to $38.40 from $37.20 on lower cost of debt assumption. Rating upgraded to Accumulate from Hold.
HELLOWORLD TRAVEL LIMITED ((HLO)) was upgraded to Buy from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/1/0
“Through the worst of it” is how Morgans describes Helloworld Travel’s FY25 results. Earnings (EBITDA) fell -16.2% on FY24, but a stronger 2H25 beat expectations.
Commentary explains the company was impacted by market volatility and economic uncertainty in FY25, as well as an unfavourable mix of more short/medium haul to Asia versus long haul to Europe against a year earlier.
No FY26 guidance was offered, but a stronger year is expected. The company pointed to strong forward bookings for the second half of 2025 and into 2026. Air bookings for FY26 departures are up 11% on the prior year.
Helloworld is expecting industry consolidation and will acquire the remaining 50% stake in Mobile Travel Agents.
Morgans raises its earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by 14.6% for FY26 and 14.1% for FY27. The stock is upgraded to Buy from Hold, with the target raised to $2.32 from $1.76.
IGO LIMITED ((IGO)) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 2/1/3
UBS has yet again raised its price forecasts for lithium to US$1,250/1,150/1,350/t for 2026-28 versus spot of US$940/t “driven by Chinese supply disruptions and likely potential for more”.
The broker’s price target for IGO Ltd has improved to $5.75 from $4.80. Was upgraded to Neutral from Sell.
See also IGO downgrade.
INGHAMS GROUP LIMITED ((ING)) was upgraded to Hold from Trim by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/4/0
Inghams Group’s FY25 result missed consensus and came at the lower end of guidance following a tough 4Q25 for reasons including loss of Woolworths ((WOW)) contract, shift to lower margin customers and cost-of-living pressures.
The bright spot was New Zealand which saw 12.6% EBITDA growth. FY26 EBITDA guidance for $215-230m is -3-9% below FY25 and well below consensus.
The guidance assumes modest growth in core poultry volume, a slight fall in net selling prices and rise in operating costs. 1H26 is expected to be weak but a rebound is assumed in 2H on early signs of stronger demand from retailer chicken promotions.
FY26 EBITDA forecast downgraded by -11.5% to the bottom end of guidance. Target cut to $3.03 from $3.58. Rating upgraded to Hold from Trim.
LOVISA HOLDINGS LIMITED ((LOV)) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 1/6/0
Lovisa Holdings’ FY25 net profit of $86.3m missed Citi’s forecast by -5% and consensus by -5.4%, and final dividend of 27c also missed both.
Costs were higher than expected and the broker is forecasting 20% increase in cost of doing business in FY26. Operating leverage will remain an uncertainty until the company is able to extract significant leverage on its fixed cost base, commentary suggests.
A key positive is acceleration in global store rollouts, which makes it difficult to underweight the stock, the broker reckons. Emerging Australia/NZ competition is a risk, but offset by strength in rest of the world, and potential upside catalyst comes from Claire’s situation. FY26 net profit forecast trimmed by -1% but FY27 increased by 3%.
Target lifted to $42.50 from $22.98 on change in valuation methodology to high-growth offshore names. Rating upgraded to Neutral from Sell.
See also LOV downgrade.
MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED ((MIN)) was upgraded to Buy from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 4/1/2
UBS double-upgrades Mineral Resources to Buy from Sell following upgrades to its lithium price forecast, reflecting expectations for strict execution of Chinese mining right investigations and resultant supply disruption.
The company’s other operational assumptions are unchanged.
After integrating the revised price deck, UBS earnings forecasts rise 51%, 40% and 41% across FY26-28. Target rises to $40.40 from $37.40.
See also MIN downgrade.
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED ((NAB)) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 1/2/2
ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) did not release a trading update for 3Q25, but Morgan Stanley believes the recent operating trends for the bank have been as positive as for Westpac ((WBC)) and National Australia Bank.
The analyst considers the operating environment has improved for the banks, with low earnings risk and good balance sheets which are healthy and should underpin trading valuation multiples above post-COVID averages.
National Australia Bank is the preferred, while Westpac moves to the least preferred after Commbank ((CBA)).
Target price is raised to $42.50 from $39.80. The stock is upgraded to Overweight from Equal-weight. Industry View: In-Line.
NIB HOLDINGS LIMITED ((NHF)) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 2/3/1
Following on from yesterday’s FY25 result by nib Holdings, Citi raises its target to $8.90 from $6.95 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral.
The stock has rebounded from its lows yet remains reasonably valued, according to the analysts, with a clearer earnings outlook. There is also considered to be potential for a capital boost from the possible sale of nib Travel.
See also NHF downgrade.
PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED ((PLS)) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 3/3/1
UBS has yet again raised its price forecasts for lithium to US$1,250/1,150/1,350/t for 2026-28 versus spot of US$940/t “driven by Chinese supply disruptions and likely potential for more”.
Pilbara Minerals is considered the best placed for investors ready to play the cycle. Having previously stuck with a Sell rating, today that rating has been upgraded to Neutral.
Price target shifts to $2.30 from $1.60.
See also PLS downgrade.
QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED ((QAN)) was upgraded to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/3/0
While FY25 profit before tax for Qantas Airways was in line with market expectations, it slightly missed Ord Minnett’s forecast.
The airline issued upbeat FY26 guidance, according to the broker. Revenue per available seat kilometre (RASK) is expected to grow 3-5% domestically and 2-3% internationally, both stronger than anticipated.
Domestic RASK is supported by high load factors, mining demand and better yield management, explains the analyst, while international RASK benefits from capacity rebuild and improved performance. Strong travel demand is expected to continue into 1H26.
The target price increases to $13.80 from $11.40, and Ord Minnett upgrades to Buy from Accumulate.
REECE LIMITED ((REH)) was upgraded to Equal-weight from Underweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 1/3/1
Following a further review of Reece’s FY25 results, Morgan Stanley lowers its target to $12 from $17 and upgrades to Equal-weight from Underweight as risk/reward is now more balanced. Industry view: In-Line.
While near-term housing weakness persists, the broker notes the company’s long-term growth outlook and value proposition remain attractive.
See also REH downgrade.
SIGMA HEALTHCARE LIMITED ((SIG)) was upgraded to Hold from Sell by Bell Potter and Was upgraded to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/2/1
Bell Potter raises its target for Sigma Healthcare to $2.85 from $2.00 and upgrades to Hold from Sell in the wake of FY25 results. The broker’s FY26 EPS forecast is raised by 16% due to a better gross margin forecast and lower debt.
Sigma reported FY25 proforma revenue of $9.6bn, within 1% of the analysts’ forecast, while earnings (EBIT) of $903.4m were modestly below expectations.
Operating cash flow (OCF) was around $600m, with free cash flow of $590m against gross debt of $890m. Net debt of $752m was -$550m lower than the broker had expected, providing a material uplift to Bell Potter’s FY26 EPS growth and equity valuation.
The broker notes like-for-like Chemist Warehouse network sales growth of 10.9% in FY25, with momentum continuing into July. It’s felt store network expansion in Australia and overseas remains on track, supported by under-utilised distribution centre capacity.
Management’s guidance for synergy cost savings has been upgraded to $100m annually by FY28-29 from $60m, though system integration complexity limits the pace of delivery, cautions Bell Potter.
Following Sigma Healthcare’s FY25 results, Morgans raises its target to $3.39 from $3.12 and upgrades to Accumulate from Hold.
Outcomes were broadly in line with the broker’s expectations, with revenue up 82% to $6.0bn and EBIT of $834.5m, slightly above the broker’s forecast but just below consensus.
The broker highlights synergy targets have been materially upgraded to $100m per year by 2028, up from $60m, primarily from supply chain and corporate cost savings. One-off costs to achieve these synergies will also increase to around -$95-100m.
Management noted FY26 has started strongly with double-digit like-for-like sales growth.
TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED ((TAH)) was upgraded to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/1/0
Tabcorp Holdings’ FY25 results beat Morgans’ expectations, with Wagering and Media revenue slightly below forecast but offset by $39m in cost savings, 30% above guidance.
The broker raises its target to $1.02 from 75c and upgrades its rating to Accumulate from Hold.
Product initiatives and a 20% lift in digital retail turnover partly offset softer wagering trends, explains Morgans, while Gaming Services is expected to deliver low single-digit growth.
Profit was supported by the first positive equity contribution from Dabble, observes the analyst, while the new Victorian licence delivered $83.7m in earnings (EBITDA).
A 2c unfranked dividend was declared, well above Morgans’ forecast, and leverage improved to 1.6 times. Management guides to FY26 capex of -$120-140m and depreciation and amortisation of -$215-225m, while highlighting national tote reform as a strategic ambition.
TOURISM HOLDINGS LIMITED ((THL)) was upgraded to Buy from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/1/0
Tourism Holdings Rentals is upgraded to Buy from Hold, with a rise in target price to $2.65 from $2.33.
The company announced FY25 results which largely met revenue guidance, Morgans explains, with 2H25 marked by political and economic uncertainty, which weighed on consumer confidence and impacted RV sales and margins.
Underlying net profit after tax fell -45% on the prior year, yet the Board declared a higher than expected dividend of NZD4c per share as a mark of confidence in the outlook and the company’s future.
No formal FY26 guidance was offered, although FY25 was highlighted as a low point, with market conditions seeming to have stabilised. A net profit after tax goal of plus NZ$100m over the next 3-4 years was reiterated.
Morgans raises its EPS forecasts by 1.6% for FY26 and 13.9% for FY27, due to more robust than expected business unit performance.
WESFARMERS LIMITED ((WES)) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 0/3/1
Following a complete review of Wesfarmers’ FY25 result, Citi upgraded EBIT forecasts for FY26-27 by around 3%. The broker notes valuation is high but with no obvious earnings catalyst to justify a Sell rating, it is upgrading the rating to Neutral. Target price rises to $90 from $60.
The broker finds it an in-line result but doubts whether the reasonable trading update is good enough considering the very strong price action into the result.
The capital management initiative should be taken well, the report concludes.
In the bad books
Downgrades
AUSSIE BROADBAND LIMITED ((ABB)) was downgraded to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 5/0/0
Ord Minnett downgrades Aussie Broadband to Accumulate from Buy, due to the recent share price strength. The analyst raises the target to $5.72 from $4.55, post the telco beating FY25 earnings expectations with EBITDA up 15% and EPS of 15.5c, which was down -4% but above forecast.
FY26 guidance stands at earnings (EBITDA) of $157m-$167m, a 5% upgrade at the midpoint relative to previous forecasts, with a new wholesale agreement to benefit FY27 earnings.
The analyst views FY25 as a turning point, with better earnings quality and lifting return on equity.
The announced sale of loss-making Buddy Telco underpins a notable rise in the analyst’s earnings forecasts by removing assumed losses of around -$8m in FY26 and circa -$4m in FY27.
AIR NEW ZEALAND LIMITED ((AIZ)) was downgraded to Sell from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 1/0/1
Air New Zealand’s FY25 release has triggered a downgrade from UBS to Sell from Neutral. Then broker’s valuation has shrunk to NZ55c from NZ63c prior.
Higher operating costs and depreciation have triggered a chainsaw treatment for earnings and dividend forecasts. The broker is also citing delayed capacity recovery and higher airport charges into FY28–FY30.
As for the result itself, FY25 underlying pre-tax profit came in at NZ$189m, broadly in line with UBS, as aircraft availability issues and higher non-fuel costs were partly offset by NZ$129m in engine compensation. The NZ$62m buyback continues.
UBS adds the shares are still trading at a P/E premium to Qantas and Virgin.
EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED ((APE)) was downgraded to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/3/1
In Ord Minnett’s view, Eagers Automotive delivered “strong” 1H25 profit before tax, 7% above the broker’s forecast, with revenue of $6.5bn also ‘beating’ by 9%.
Management now expects revenue growth in 2025 to exceed the original $1bn uplift target, with sales growth closer to $1.8bn.
Eagers sold 34% of all new energy vehicles (NEVs) in Australia in the half, highlights Ord Minnett, reinforcing the company’s market leadership.
Order write was 10% above deliveries, with the order bank around four times pre-covid levels, highlight the analysts. Operating expenses as a percentage of revenue fell to 12.1%, while new vehicle market share reached 13.8%.
Margins eased to 16.7% from 18% due to mix, notes the broker, while EasyAuto123 posted a 45% lift in profit.
The target price is raised to $23.50 from $15. Ord Minnett downgrades to a Hold rating from Accumulate on valuation grounds.
ABACUS STORAGE KING ((ASK)) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 0/3/0
The independent board committee at Abacus Storage King has been informed the consortium of Public Storage and Ki Corporation has withdrawn its proposal to acquire the remaining stapled securities in Abacus Storage King.
This development is likely to create short-term downside for the share price, in Citi’s view, with the M&A offer no longer on the table.
Self-storage in Australia remains an attractive sector for global capital providers, highlights the broker, supported by strong long-term growth fundamentals.
In Citi’s view, a key hurdle for the deal was the need for a higher offer price above net tangible assets (NTA) to secure minority shareholder support.
The broker lowers its target to $1.50 from $1.73 and downgrades to Neutral from Buy.
BENDIGO & ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED ((BEN)) was downgraded to Lighten from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/2/2
Bendigo & Adelaide Bank reported cash earnings which broadly met Ord Minnett’s expectations, boosted by write-backs of credit impairments. The net interest margin was flat at 1.88%, and guidance for FY26 focused on retaining a flat margin.
The bank aims to cut its funding costs via growth in low-rate deposits, which should result in growth of pre-provision operating profit, the analyst explains, due to operating leverage.
The final dividend was as expected. Ord Minnett raises its EPS forecast by 3.8% for FY26 and 1.1% for FY27, which boosts the target price to $11 from $10.50.
The stock is downgraded to Lighten from Hold, as the price has risen by around 7% in August alone.
CLINUVEL PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED ((CUV)) was downgraded to Hold from Speculative Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/1/0
Morgans downgrades Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals to Hold from Speculative Buy and cuts the target price to $14 from $15 post a slight miss of FY25 results. The company has also been unable to switch the narrative around capital management and disclosures, which places a cap on any upside, and overall the result was a miss and disappointing.
The analyst views the report as “uninspiring” with “pedestrian” commercial sales growth of 6.4% against the global growth in patient numbers and doses, along with US accredited centres at 104 from 85 a year ago.
Positively, the cash pile continued to grow at $224.1m from $198m in 1H25, with the buyback set at only $250k and no increase in dividend. There is a lack of action on capital management and reliance on deposit yields rather than returns on shareholder investment. Interest income now represents around 18.6% of profits.
DATA#3 LIMITED. ((DTL)) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 2/2/0
UBS has downgraded Data#3 to Neutral from Buy with an increased price target; $8.70 versus $8.10 prior.
The company’s FY25 landed ahead at pre-tax profit –beating the broker’s estimate by some 7%– as near-flat opex delivered a 2H beat despite softer Services and the Microsoft reseller-incentive transition weighing on gross profit.
The broker expects a markedly 2H-skewed FY26, with Software rebounding after a weak 1H to drive 8% gross margin growth; cost control endures, while non-staff investments lift opex modestly.
EPS forecasts are lifted +6%/+5%/+4% for FY26–FY28, with DPS +7%/+5%/+4%, while circa -$3m lower interest income limits FY26 pre-tax profit growth to 3%, the broker suggests.
ENDEAVOUR GROUP LIMITED ((EDV)) was downgraded to Hold from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/6/1
Endeavour Group reported slightly weaker than expected FY25 results, with group earnings (EBIT) falling -12%, below Morgans’ forecast by -3% and consensus by -2%. Underlying net profit declined by -17%, another miss.
Hotel earnings slightly improved, but soft consumer spending weighed on retail earnings. Looking for positives, the analyst noted robust cash conversion of 110%, up from 108%, due to good working capital management.
The first seven weeks of FY26 have seen Dan Murphy’s and BWS sales down -1.3%, with hotels up 4.4%, due to higher transaction volumes.
Commentary suggests a lower interest rate environment should support the consumer over the next 12 months. The strategy under new CEO, Jayne Hrdlicka, remains unknown, with her tenure starting on January 1, 2026.
Target lowered to $4.15 from $4.35. The stock is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate, with limited upside risks seen. Portfolio review is due 2H26.
FORTESCUE LIMITED ((FMG)) was downgraded to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett and to Trim from Hold by Morgans and to Sell from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 2/1/3
Fortescue reported FY25 results slightly below consensus as D&A charges were higher, along with larger than expected tax expenses. The final dividend was as anticipated.
Guidance for FY26 production was unchanged, along with unit costs and capex from the June quarter report.
Management highlighted capex would remain elevated as it invests to reach net zero by FY30, including replacing its vehicle fleets.
Post the FY25 results and the seasonal decline in Chinese steel output, Ord Minnett has downgraded its EPS forecast by -5.8% for FY26 and -7% for FY27.
The stock is downgraded to Accumulate from Buy due to the valuation. Target unchanged at $20.
On further analysis, Morgans tweaks its EPS estimates for FY26/FY27 and downgrades the stock to Trim from Hold. Target moves to $16.60 from $16.50.
The one comment that stands out from Morgans’ early response to Fortescue’s FY25 release is: “FMG unfortunately is demonstrating it cannot execute on a magnetite project in its backyard but expects the market to be confident it can deliver capital-intensive global energy innovation with a commercial return – still a bridge too far.”
The broker points out energy projects remain an important drag at -US$900m capex/opex guided in FY26, despite little prospect for a meaningful return.
No double guessing, Morgans is not a fan of the company’s strategy outside of the iron ore business. The FY25 itself is labelled “solid”, but then the share price valuation is seen as too rich.
Fortescue’s FY25 revenue and EBITDA were a slight beat to Bell Potter’s forecasts and the consensus. Commentary suggests context is important as expectations were set low and revenue/EBITDA/net profit were all materially lower y/y.
Record production, good cost control and favourable exchange rate moves were not enough to offset lower realised iron ore price, which was down -18% y/y.
Free cash flow dropped due to higher capex and energy division costs, though on the positive side the analyst discovered the dividend was higher than expected.
The broker is cautious on the outlook as the recent uptick in the iron ore price is unlikely to see any sustained upside. Capex and energy division costs are elevated along with risks of further project delays.
FY26 EPS forecast trimmed by -4% and FY27 by -5%. Target lowered to $17.05 from $17.40. Rating downgraded to Sell from Hold.
GEMLIFE COMMUNITIES GROUP ((GLF)) was downgraded to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/0/0
Gemlife Communities beat both prospectus and Morgans 1H2025 earnings expectations with net profit after tax up 8.4%, including 119 settlements versus 117 (prospectus) and a 13.3% rise in average dwelling prices and a lift in average weekly site fees of 5.3% on the prior year.
Management reiterated 2025 underlying profit of $86.2m against the analyst’s forecast of $90.3m with 333 home settlements targeted.
There are 223 homes under contract and an additional 30 homes under expressions of interest which places the business in a good position to achieve prospectus targets.
Morgans slightly lifts its EPS forecasts by 2% for 2025 and lowers 2026 by -2%.
Target price rises to $5.40 from $5.20. The stock is downgraded to Accumulate from Buy with a positive outlook for residential housing.
HELIA GROUP LIMITED ((HLI)) was downgraded to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/0/1
Macquarie stresses Helia Group continues to return capital to shareholders, announcing another special 27c dividend which is estimated to be circa $70m in capital. The group reported underlying net profit after tax of $126m, which was better than expected.
Incurred claims were negative at -$27m for 1H2025, a positive surprise, with 2025 guidance set at negative claims. Cost-out opportunities were mentioned but few further updates around its business review were provided.
Macquarie lifts its EPS forecasts by 14% for 2025 and 8% for 2026 due to lower claims and interest costs after the repayment of Tier 2 debt. Reinsurance costs have also been reduced, offset with a reduction in buybacks.
The analyst changes the valuation method to a dividend discount model to account for the increase in capital returns, with considerable excess capital on the balance sheet.
The stock is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral as the valuation looks excessive. Target price rises to $4.10 (after dividends paid out).
IDP EDUCATION LIMITED ((IEL)) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/4/0
While IDP Education’s FY25 adjusted earnings were -8% below Macquarie, FY26 cost-out targets and FY26 earnings guidance surprised to the upside.
IELTs revenue was 3% ahead of Macquarie, supported by both slightly better volume and average fee growth, while student placements revenue was 5% ahead, driven by robust price increases of 15%, although somewhat offset by weaker volume.
While Macquarie views the long-term thesis to be intact, the broker sees risks to near term earnings should market volume and market share remain weak.
Was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target falls to $6.00 from $6.40.
INFOMEDIA LIMITED ((IFM)) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 0/3/0
UBS comments Infomedia’s FY25 landed within guidance, as underlying 2H momentum improved ex-SimplePart and management guides FY26 revenue growth of 4.5–9.5%, which the broker deems conservative.
The broker highlights acceleration in Infodrive and Microcat, early EMEA/US improvements post leadership changes, and CX platform completion in 2H26 as a catalyst.
Commentary also notes DMS integrations and SimplePart renegotiations are still ahead, while Intellegam adds AI optionality. UBS also flags investors may wait on the TPG $1.72 bid outcome expected circa Nov-25.
UBS downgrades to Neutral from Buy and lifts its 12-month price target to $1.85 from $1.75; forecasts are tweaked with EBITDA +1%/-2%/-1%/+1% and EPS raised by 9-14% across FY26–FY29 on lower amortisation.
IGO LIMITED ((IGO)) was downgraded to Sell from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 2/1/3
Citi raises its FY26-27 earnings forecasts for lithium producers under coverage on a higher price deck, assuming SC6 at US$900/t through 2H25. The broker notes lithium-exposed stocks have rallied 25-60% this quarter, leaving valuations stretched.
The analysts observe pure-play exposures are currently pricing in US$1200-1370/t compared to spot of US$940/t.
The broker downgrades its rating for IGO Ltd to Sell from Neutral on valuation grounds. Target rises to $4.50 from $4.10.
Neutral-rated Pilbara Minerals is kept as Citi’s ASX100 sector pick.
See also IGO upgrade.
IMDEX LIMITED ((IMD)) was downgraded to Hold from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/4/0
Morgans highlights Imdex shares have outperformed since initiation of coverage in June, up 55%, but further outperformance will rely on market share gains. The stock is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate.
FY25 results came in weaker than expected, with revenue the bright spot, coming in 2% above the analyst’s forecast. Margins were much weaker than anticipated, falling to 28.5% in 2H25 from 30.2% in 1H25. Earnings (EBITDA) missed expectations by -2%.
Noting the trailing twelve-month (TTM) raisings lifting again in July to US$1.17bn, up 115% on the prior year, confirms raisings are back at levels not seen since the capital markets boom in 2020/21, which underpinned a large increase in exploration spend, up 57% in two years.
The analyst notes TTM raisings have a strong correlation with Imdex’s tools on rent. Morgans lowers its EPS forecasts by -5% and -6% for FY26/FY27, respectively. Target lifts to $3.45 from $3.20.
KAROON ENERGY LIMITED ((KAR)) was downgraded to Hold from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/3/0
The upgraded 2025 production guidance for Karoon Energy to 9.7-10.5mmboe came in below consensus expectations, while also announcing a serious problem at Bauna (SPS-92), according to Morgans.
SPS-92 has an unanticipated outage, and Bauna is the largest producing well. It will operate at around 25% of its usual rate until the Electrical Submersible Pump (ESP) can be replaced. The analyst estimates the ESP replacement at -US$40-US$50m, likely in 2Q2026.
Morgans lowers its production forecasts by -8.7% for 2025, and -10% for 2026, to reflect changes at Bauna and narrowed guidance at Who Dat. The energy producer is due to report 1H2025 results on August 27.
The stock is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate. Target price falls to $1.85 from $2.05.
LIBERTY FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED ((LFG)) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 1/1/0
Citi raises its target for Liberty Financial to $4.50 from $4.15 and downgrades to Neutral from Buy on valuation, following FY25 results.
The group’s profit of $145m was broadly in line with the broker’s forecast, with lower bad debts offsetting softer loan volumes. Margins improved, with the 2H25 net interest margin (NIM) rising 4bps to 2.50% on lower funding costs.
Application volumes lifted 33% quarter-on-quarter in 4Q25, while bad debts fell -22% year-on-year, with arrears improving and credit quality sound, assess the analysts. Citi forecasts a FY26 NIM of 2.57%, supported by funding cost tailwinds, though competitive pressures remain.
The broker trims its FY26-27 earnings forecasts by -3% to reflect a slower recovery pace.
LOVISA HOLDINGS LIMITED ((LOV)) was downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley and to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans and to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/6/0
Morgan Stanley downgrades Lovisa Holdings to Equal-weight from Overweight on valuation grounds. Target rises to $42 from $35 post FY25 results.
The retailer lifted FY25 earnings 1.7% compared to a soft trajectory between 2H23-1H25, implying an acceleration in growth to over 3% in 2H25. There were some slight price rises, mainly due to US tariffs, and little alteration around promotional activity.
The analyst believes the positive comps can be retained. New net stores lifted by 121 in FY25, and a slightly lower result can be achieved in FY26.
Costs rose in FY25, with earnings (EBIT) missing consensus by -5% due to a decline in the margin of -100bps as funds were invested in the rollout of global stores.
Morgan Stanley lowers its FY26 earnings (EBIT) by -7% despite a higher sales assumption, due to expansion costs, with FY27 earnings (EBIT) down -1%.
After analysing FY25 results for Lovisa Holdings, Morgans raises its target price to $44.50 from $35.00 and downgrades to Accumulate from Buy.
Results were mixed, in Morgans’s opinion, with earnings (EBIT) of $138.7m up 8.2% year-on-year but -6% adrift of the broker’s forecast due to higher operating costs.
Sales were ahead of the analyst’s expectations, gross margins rose 100bps to 82%, and profit was $86.3m, -6% below forecast. A final dividend of 27c brought the full-year payout to 77c. Store rollout accelerated, with 88 net openings in H2, taking the total to 1,041.
Europe and the US were the strongest contributors to store growth, while competitor Claire’s bankruptcy could provide market share and real estate opportunities, explains the broker.
FY26 has started strongly, assesses Morgans, with like-for-like sales up 5.6% and total sales up 28%. Costs as a share of sales worsened by -140bps to 50.8% due to expansion into higher-cost markets, supply chain upgrades, and IT investment, explains the broker. It’s felt costs will remain elevated in FY26 as Lovisa funds its global rollout.
Macquarie says that near-term upside is reflected in the current valuation, with the share price up 13% on result. Target rises to $40.90 from $33.40, was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.
See also LOV upgrade.
LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED ((LYC)) was downgraded to Sell from Hold by Ord Minnett and to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 1/1/3
Ord Minnett describes a “miserable” FY25 profit of $8m for Lynas Rare Earths, contrasting badly against the company’s $14bn market capitalisation.
Further, the result was eclipsed, in the analysts’ view, by an opportunistic $750m equity raising under management’s “Towards 2030” plan. Proceeds are earmarked for unspecified opportunities.
Operating costs worsened by -$83m year-on-year, driven by elevated fixed costs and weaker production from the Kalgoorlie plant, explain the analysts.
Ord Minnett lowers its target for Lynas Rare Earths to $10.00 from $10.80 and downgrades to Sell from Hold.
Management concedes the proposed Seadrift plant in the US is unlikely to proceed, which reinforces the broker’s view a Malaysian rare earths producer will struggle to secure US government funding.
UBS downgrades Lynas Rare Earths to Neutral from Buy and lifts its 12-month price target to $15.10 from $12.20, arguing valuation has outrun near-term delivery despite a stronger long-term rare earths set-up.
The FY25 result is seen as secondary to strategy: EBITDA $101m was in line with the broker’s $107m while the $8m in net profit missed on higher D&A.
UBS backs the ex-China thematic and, alongside modelling for the equity raise, upgrades long-term NdPr to US$100/kg (from US$75) and near-term prices, but seeks more detail on “Towards 2030” proceeds-resource/scale $150m, downstream capacity $310m, and ex-China metal/magnets $200m.
MATRIX COMPOSITES & ENGINEERING LIMITED ((MCE)) was downgraded to Hold from Speculative Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/2/0
Matrix Composites & Engineering’s FY25 result was weaker than Morgans expected, with revenue of $75m down -12% year-on-year and missing the broker’s forecast by -7%.
The target price is reduced to 25c from 30c, and the rating downgraded to Hold from Speculative Buy.
Earnings (EBITDA) of $5m fell -54% and were -24% below the analyst’s estimate, highlighting the company’s significant operating de-leverage. Profit was a -$4.6m loss against the broker’s forecast of -$2.9m.
The Subsea order book has risen to $57m from $33m last year, which could support revenue of up to $90m in FY26, suggests Morgans.
MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED ((MIN)) was downgraded to Sell from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 4/1/2
Citi raises its FY26-27 earnings forecasts for lithium producers under coverage on a higher price deck, assuming SC6 at US$900/t through 2H25. The broker notes lithium-exposed stocks have rallied 25-60% this quarter, leaving valuations stretched.
The broker downgrades its rating for Mineral Resources to Sell from Neutral on valuation grounds. Target rises to $34 from $31.
Neutral-rated Pilbara Minerals is kept as Citi’s ASX100 sector pick.
See also MIN upgrade.
MONASH IVF GROUP LIMITED ((MVF)) was downgraded to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 3/1/0
In the wake of FY25 results by Monash IVF, Bell Potter lowers its target to 77c from $1.15 and downgrades to Hold from Buy. Management reported FY25 profit of $27.4m, in line with revised guidance but with a weak second half, highlights the broker.
Revenue fell -6.2% half-on-half and assisted reproductive services declined -12%, with Victoria the main driver, observe the analysts. Market share in Stimulated Cycles fell -70bps to 21%.
Commentary highlights no final dividend was declared, and net leverage rose to 1.7 times from the class action settlement. Three new fertility specialists were added and review findings were benign, supporting stabilisation.
FY26 guidance of $20-23m implies a -21.5% fall, and the broker’s forecasts are cut to the low end on brand damage and macro pressures.
NINE ENTERTAINMENT CO. HOLDINGS LIMITED ((NEC)) was downgraded to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/2/0
Ord Minnett notes Nine Entertainment paid 49c special dividend from proceeds of majority stake sale in Domain. FY25 operating earnings beat expectations on strong growth in Stan streaming and better-than-expected performance in publishing.
The company expects continued earnings growth in FY26 but didn’t provide quantitative guidance. The broker cut FY26 EPS by -16.4% and FY27 by -11.5% after removing Domain earnings from the model.
Target lifted to $1.80 from $1.70. Rating downgraded to Hold from Accumulate.
NIB HOLDINGS LIMITED ((NHF)) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy by UBS and to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/3/1
NIB Holdings’ FY25 beat consensus and its forecast on net profit by 8–9% on a lower tax rate. Pre-tax profit came out in line.
ARHI delivered $208m UOP (in line), NZ rebounded to $7m growth in 2H after a weak 1H, policy growth was 3.2%, and ARHI’s reported net margin was 7.2% (underlying 6.5%).
UBS says FY26 hinges on ARHI net margins within the 6–7% target as a 5.8% approved premium rise helps offset accelerated payment patterns and reserve releases clouding claims trends.
On the other side, higher centralised corporate costs and NDIS reform risks temper the broader outlook.
UBS downgrades to Neutral from Buy and lifts its 12-month price target to $8.60 from $7.85; EPS is trimmed by -1.7%/-0.8%/-4.1% for FY26–FY28, with DPS held at 29.0c in FY26 and nudged to 31.0c in FY27.
nib Holdings reported 2H25 results which beat Ord Minnett’s expectations and consensus, due to a lower than anticipated tax rate and a final dividend which was better than forecast.
Profit before tax was noted as less impressive, and the underlying margin for the dominant Australian resident health insurance business narrowed, the analyst highlights, in 2H25 to 6.3% from 6.7%. An odd result, given the increase in premium rates.
Only broad FY26 guidance was offered, including an expected “uplift” in underlying earnings, but no specifics were shared, commentary highlights.
Ord Minnett cuts its EPS forecasts by -2.4% for FY26 and -3% for FY27. The stock continues to be viewed as undervalued, but due to the share price appreciation, it is downgraded to Accumulate from Buy. Target unchanged at $8.20.
See also NHF upgrade.
PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED ((PDN)) was downgraded to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 6/1/0
Paladin Energy’s FY25 net loss of -US$76.5m missed the consensus forecast due to non-cash inventory impairments, explains Ord Minnett.
The broker trims its near-term opex forecast at Langer Heinrich, raising the target price to $7.70 from $7.60, and downgrades to Accumulate from Buy after a 20% share price rise.
Costs at Patterson Lake South deteriorated by -20-40% with updated engineering, though economics remain strong, in the broker’s view.
Ord Minnett considers Paladin its top uranium growth pick under coverage on the ASX, with production forecast to reach circa 17mlb annually by FY33, a 24% compound growth rate from FY25.
PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED ((PLS)) was downgraded to Hold from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/3/1
No major surprises from Pilbara Minerals’ FY25 headline results, although Morgans points to higher D&A than forecast and the accounting treatment of some expenditure as resulting in a lower than anticipated net profit after tax, versus forecast and consensus.
Pilbara will continue to concentrate on improving operational excellence with its expanded Pilgangoora operation, including cost management and further exploration and studies at Colina.
Interest from major chemical converters and enquiries for higher volumes in FY26 was highlighted by management, and the analyst sees it as a positive signal that underlying demand for spodumene remains strong, despite the apparent oversupply market conditions.
The stock is downgraded to Hold from Buy, as the share price has rallied due to a rise in the spodumene price, but Morgans continues to view the lithium market as in an oversupplied state. Target remains at $2.30.
See also PLS upgrade.
PERPETUAL LIMITED ((PPT)) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 1/4/0
UBS downgrades Perpetual to Neutral from Buy, keeping its 12-month price target at $22.50, arguing prolonged uncertainty around the Wealth sale erodes value despite simplification gains.
FY25 landed broadly in line at UNPAT $204m (2H ahead of consensus on a lower tax rate), but 2H operating EBITDA missed by -7% and Wealth’s 2H EBITDA was circa -20% below forecast amid sale uncertainty.
Asset Management saw fee-margin compression partly offset by stronger performance fees, while Corporate Trust performed in line.
The broker highlights balance-sheet risk persisting. Gross debt of $738.5m was slightly better than guidance and refinancing to 6.25% helps near term, yet adviser churn, higher retention costs and fewer bidders reduce pricing tension.
Forecasts are tweaked, with expense growth guided at 2-3% and forecast DPS trimmed.
PWR HOLDINGS LIMITED ((PWH)) was downgraded to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans and to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 2/2/0
Morgans’ highlights PWR Holdings’ FY25 result was stronger than expected, with revenue growth decline less than expected, but the outlook on margin was a disappointment.
Management expects modest margin improvement driven by productivity and operating leverage, but offset by US tariffs, US cybersecurity accreditation, CEO transition and higher ongoing costs from the new Australian facility.
The broker cut its FY26 net profit margin forecast to 10.8% from 14.7% previously expected. But this is expected to rise to 13.1% in FY27 and to 18% in FY29 based on guidance for it to trend back to towards FY24’s 17.8% level.
The broker remains positive on the outlook for strong aerospace and defence demand, eVTOL potential, and new MRO (maintenance, repair, overhaul) opportunities.
Target trimmed to $8.50 from $8.80. Rating downgraded to Accumulate from Buy.
PWR Holdings reported FY25 revenue of $130.1m, in line with Bell Potter’s $130.3m forecast. Earnings (EBITDA) of $25.5m and profit of $9.8m were both -2% below the broker’s estimates.
Cash flow conversion was strong at 136%, highlight the analysts, with net debt of $8.1m, though the final dividend of 2c fell short of the broker’s 4.8c forecast.
Margin guidance was weaker than expected by Bell Potter, with costs from US tariffs, cyber accreditation and CEO transition weighing on profit.
Management expects FY26 revenue growth in Motorsports and Aerospace & Defence, with muted growth in OEM and Aftermarket.
Bell Potter lowers its target price to $7.75 from $8.00 and downgrades to Hold from Buy.
REECE LIMITED ((REH)) was downgraded to Trim from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/3/1
Morgans downgrades Reece to Trim from Hold and reduces the target price to $11.10 from $14.80, on the back of FY25 results which came in at the bottom end of guidance offered last June. The outlook for both A&NZ and the US remains uncertain.
The company reported a decline in earnings (EBIT) of -25%, which slightly missed expectations, and A&NZ earnings fell -17%, with costs remaining high from inflation pressures and ongoing investment.
US earnings declined -23% due to weak residential new construction demand, deflation in some products, and increased competition. Management flagged a slow recovery in A&NZ, and the US housing market is expected to be challenged over the next 12-18 months due to high mortgage rates and affordability issues.
Morgans views Reece as a quality company, but near-term uncertainty is elevated.
See also REH upgrade.
RESOLUTE MINING LIMITED ((RSG)) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie and to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/2/0
Macquarie downgrades Resolute Mining to Neutral from Outperform as the share price has risen over 100% over the last six months.
As a result of a higher depreciation charge, the miner announced lower than expected 1H2025 net profit after tax of US$71m, which was below consensus by -16% and under the analyst’s estimate by -41%. Underlying earnings beat consensus and met Macquarie’s forecast.
Guidance for 2025 was retained at 275-300koz, with consensus at 284koz, at an all-in-sustaining-cost of US$1,650-US$1,750.
Macquarie lowers its EPS forecast post result by -26% due to a higher assumed depreciation charge. Target price remains at 75c. Doropo is singled out as important with resources & reserves and an updated definitive feasibility study due in 4Q2025.
Resolute Mining’s first-half 2025 operating earnings came in ahead of Ord Minnett’s expectations, though higher depreciation and inventory movements meant profit fell short of expectation.
Management maintained full-year production guidance across Syama in Mali, Mako in Senegal and Doropo (Ivory Coast).
After incorporating increased cost forecasts at Mako, Ord Minnett lowers its target price to 80c from 90c and downgrades to Hold from Buy.
SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED ((SFR)) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 1/4/1
UBS has downgraded Sandfire Resources to Neutral from Buy while cutting its 12-month price target to $13.10 from $13.35, citing limited upside after incorporating FY26 guidance and a higher 35–38% tax rate.
FY25 financials proved in line with pre-release and no dividend was declared though a $262m franking-credit balance underpins future distributions as the balance sheet de-gears, the broker adds.
FY26 guidance sets Group copper production at 149–165kt; Motheo’s new 3-yr plan steps up to 50–60kt with FY26 C1 US$1.35/lb, while Matsa is modelled at US$1.55/lb and net cash is expected early in 2H FY26.
Commentary suggests Sandfire shares are already trading on a copper “scarcity premium,” limiting near-term return.
SKS TECHNOLOGIES GROUP LIMITED ((SKS)) was downgraded to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/0/0
Unpacking the broader FY25 results for SKS Technologies after the company pre-reported headline metrics, Morgans notes the earnings report was broadly in line with expectations.
The analyst points to two surprises: a much higher than expected 2H25 dividend of 5c versus an estimated 1.5c, and FY26 revenue guidance of $300m, ahead of prior forecasts.
The upgrade in guidance results in the analyst lifting FY26–FY27 forecasts by 5%. Work in hand remains solid at $207m, with 72% awarded to data centre projects, and is two times higher than a year ago. The pipeline has advanced by 46% on FY24 to $517.2m.
Data centre work represents around 69% of the pipeline, while traditional work remains strong at circa $159m.
Morgans downgrades SKS Technologies to Accumulate from Buy, with the target price raised to $3.15 from $2.75.
SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED ((SUL)) was downgraded to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/3/1
Ord Minnett highlights an FY25 net profit beat from Super Retail due to robust Super Cheap Auto and Rebel results, which represent around 51% and 29% of group earnings.
Like-for-like sales growth picked up in May and June, with better cost management boosting margins.
Sales growth for Super Cheap on a like-for-like basis ended the fiscal year at circa 2.5%, up from no growth in January through April. The rate picked up again in FY26 to date, to 3.3%.
Management pointed to Rebel store theft as a major issue, with organised gangs involved rather than random shoplifting, which impacted margins in 2H25 by -60bps to -70bps. The trend is unlikely to change into FY26.
Ord Minnett lifts EPS forecasts by 6.3% for FY26 and 12.2% for FY27. The stock is downgraded to Accumulate from Buy on valuation grounds. Target rises to $19 from $15.50.
TASMEA LIMITED ((TEA)) was downgraded to Hold from Buy by Shaw and Partners .B/H/S: 2/1/0
Tasmea reported in line and solid FY25 results, with earnings (EBIT) up 70% and net profit after tax rising 63%, by good management execution of organic growth and selective acquisitions, Shaw and Partners explains. Earnings (EBIT) margins rose around 150bps to 15%.
The analyst continues to expect circa 10% organic earnings (EBIT) growth in FY27/FY28, to a forecast earnings (EBIT) of $134m in FY28. Management’s target is achieving earnings (EBIT) of around $160m over time with M&A.
FY26 guidance reaffirmed earnings (EBIT) of $110m, and 32% growth in net profit after tax to $70m, with a robust pipeline of works and good earnings visibility.
Shaw and Partners tweaks its EPS forecasts lower by -3.6% for FY26, and -3.7% for FY27, due to more shares on issue.
Target rises to $4.40 from $4.10. The stock is downgraded to Hold from Buy, as it is trading in line with the new target price and having rallied 63%.
WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED ((WOW)) was downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley and to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/6/0
After a disappointing FY25 result, Morgan Stanley downgrades Woolworths Group to Equal-weight from Overweight and cuts the target price to $30.50 from $33.40.
There was a notable divergence in top-line performance versus Coles Group ((COL)) despite a price investment campaign in mid-May. Australian food sales decelerated again into 4Q, with management pointing to a lingering customer perception problem.
The analyst believes there are upside risks to further price investment above the $100m guided for to switch around momentum. This is likely to erode the $400m in cost-out benefits and weigh on gross profit margins.
An additional two distribution centres in Sydney & Melbourne raise the expected FY27 implementation costs and extend the potential benefits to beyond FY28.
Morgan Stanley cuts its EPS estimates by -8% for FY26 and -9.3% for FY27. Industry View: In-Line.
In its first response, Macquarie noted Woolworths reported FY25 results with comparable sales growth of 2.4% in Australian Food, 3.8% in NZ Food, and 0.5% in Big W, all ahead of consensus forecasts.
Australian Food volume growth of 3.1% in 4Q25 reflected ongoing price deflation, but early FY26 trading showed sales growth of 4% ex tobacco, well below Coles Group ((COL)) at 7%.
Subsequently, Macquarie declares a weak result, with limited insight on short-term strategy to rectify performance issues.
Macquarie sees challenges as likely to persist in the near term, with ongoing price re-investment a potential, as Woolworths looks to improve customer perceptions and regain market share.
Downgraded to Neutral from Outperform, target falls to $30.30 from $33.40.
Earnings forecast
Listed below are the companies that have had their forecast current year earnings raised or lowered by the brokers last week. The qualification is that the stock must be covered by at least two brokers. The table shows the previous forecast on an earnings per share basis, the new forecast, and the percentage change.
