Eight upgrades and twenty two downgrades

For the week ended Friday, July 25, 2025, FNArena tracked eight upgrades and twenty-two downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.

Average target price increases outpaced declines, while at the upper end of the average earnings forecast tables below downgrades exceeded upgrades. Beyond that point, however, upgrades were more prevalent in percentage terms.

AMP received the largest increase in average target price of nearly 18% and came third on the positive change to average earnings forecast table after reporting its June quarter trading update.

Ord Minnett highlighted the first positive net cash flow for AMP’s superannuation and investments operations since 2017. An accelerating trend in inflows, the fifth consecutive quarter of net cash inflows for the platforms business, will amplify the uplift to assets under management from favourable market movements, suggested the broker.

Macquarie downgraded its rating for AMP to Neutral from Outperform following a 42% share price rally over the past month. The broker explained a more constructive view would require a live demonstration of the “best-in-class” North wrap investment platform and a clear articulation of the strategy to achieve the Bank’s return on equity (ROE) target.

AMP remains the preferred stock pick of Morgan Stanley across wealth managers with an attractive valuation and robust flows, including holistic retirement income solutions.

It was also a big week for car retail groups Autosports Group and Peter Warren Automotive with average target price rises of 15% and 12%, respectively, along with material rises in FY25 average earnings forecasts by brokers.

Across A&NZ, Autosports Group specialises in the sale and servicing of prestige and luxury vehicles via 75 retail businesses, including new car dealerships, used car outlets, motorcycle dealerships, and specialised collision repair facilities.

In reviewing its investment case, Macquarie highlighted the potential removal of the luxury car tax could represent significant upside for the group, which remains the most leveraged play on the ASX in this regard.

Management remains focused on inorganic growth, with a strong M&A pipeline and ample capital to pursue future acquisitions, suggested the broker.

Shares in Peter Warren Automotive rose last week after management upgraded FY25 underlying profit guidance. This company operates 80 franchises across 30 brands along Australia’s east coast.

Management now guides to FY25 underlying pre-tax profit of circa $22m, implying a strong second-half result of around $15m, with Morgans noting this is more than double the $7.1m in the first half. Earlier guidance pointed to flat earnings. The uplift was driven by stronger June marketing and improved inventory and cost management.

Morgans believes sector headwinds appear to have bottomed, supporting margin gains in FY26–27, and raised its target to $1.75 from $1.45. Ord Minnett also lifted its target to $1.70 from $1.40. Both maintained Hold ratings, consistent with Morgan Stanley, the third daily monitored broker in the FNArena database.

Along with Peter Warren, AMP, and Autosports, miners Regis Resources and Woodside Energy made up the top five for positive changes to average earnings forecasts last week.

Regis delivered solid FY25 results, UBS commented, with June quarter production of 87.4koz bringing the full-year total to 373koz, the top end of guidance. Costs (AISC) at $2,531/oz were also below the guided range midpoint.

With a robust cash and bullion position of $517m as of June 2025, no debt, and absent a breakthrough on the McPhillamys project, Regis remains a frequent subject of M&A speculation.

An ongoing lack of material organic growth options and lingering questions around capital returns continue to fuel this narrative, explained the broker, which upgraded its rating to Neutral from Sell.

Less enthused, Citi downgraded to Sell from Neutral on valuation grounds, based on its below-consensus gold price assumptions. The stock has outperformed the Gold Index by approximately 20% year-to-date, but upcoming index rebalancing in the September quarter presents a potential headwind, suggested Citi analysts.

For Woodside Energy, second quarter production exceeded Macquarie’s expectation, driven by a strong performance from the Sangomar offshore oil field in Senegal, which operated above nameplate. Revenue of US$3.3bn beat consensus by 10%.

Updated 2025 guidance also points to lower unit costs and UBS now sees potential consensus EPS upgrades of around 6% for the first half of FY25.

Ord Minnett sharply upgraded its EPS forecasts, by 67% for 2025, 75.5% for 2026, and 30.5% for 2027, bringing estimates broadly in line with consensus. The broker’s forecast 2025 dividend was also raised by 67%.

Ord Minnett downgraded its rating to Hold from Buy on valuation grounds, maintaining a $25.00 target price following an around 15% rally in the share price since early June.

Bapcor had a horror week after management lowered profit guidance, as well as flagging -$48–50m in significant items and a -$24m overstatement in past profits, alongside the immediate resignation of three Board members.

The company’s average target price declined by -32% to $3.85, and the share price tanked to $3.72 from $5.11.

Analysts at Morgans saw limited positives in the market update, citing deeper-than-expected disruptions in Specialist Wholesale, softening momentum in the Trade segment, and ongoing weakness in both Retail and New Zealand operations.

The broker flagged elevated execution risk given the group’s scale and complexity, noting  recent operational deterioration has eroded its confidence in near-term earnings. Morgans downgraded its rating to Hold from Accumulate.

Macquarie downgraded to Neutral from Outperform, noting Retail remains under pressure, with FY25 revenue down -3.5%, impacted by weaker discretionary spending, increased competition, and changes to promotional strategies.

In terms of negative change to FY25 average earnings forecasts, here Paladin Energy and Lynas Rare Earths fared worse than the -11% fall for Bapcor, with respective declines of -45% and -21%.

Citi observed the sell-off in Paladin Energy’s shares on the back of what is viewed as a “solid” June quarter report, due to weaker realised prices and disappointing FY26 guidance.

The lower realised price was attributed to timing and mix of contract deliveries, which is not considered a structural problem for the uranium miner.

While also noting weaker realised pricing, the analyst at Macquarie highlighted fourth quarter production at the Langer Heinrich uranium mine beat forecasts by the broker and consensus, making FY26 guidance of between 4.0-4.4mlb look conservative.

Paladin continues to blend stockpiles during the Langer Heinrich mine ramp-up, noted UBS, which management suggested is clouding the picture.

While the average FY25 earnings forecast for Lynas Rare Earths fell, the percentage move was exaggerated by relatively small numbers involved. The FY26 average remained steady after brokers generally approved of June quarter operational results.

In the June 2025 quarter, management achieved an average rare earth oxide (REO) price of $60.2/kg, the highest since June 2022, surpassing Morgan Stanley’s forecast by 7.1% and the broader consensus by 6.7%.

According to the broker, the stronger pricing was driven by new supply chains and pricing agreements decoupled from the market index. Although sales volumes were -5.7% below Morgan Stanley’s expectation, the uplift in pricing helped offset the shortfall, with revenue exceeding consensus estimates by 9.5%.

Brokers also lowered the average earnings forecast for Iluka Resources by -8%. Despite solid second quarter production for Iluka, sales and revenue missed expectations and mineral sands pricing remains uncertain. By contrast, the outlook for rare earths looks promising.

Upgrades

GREATLAND RESOURCES LIMITED ((GGP)) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 2/0/0

Citi maintains its $8.00 target for Greatland Resources but upgrades to Buy from Neutral, citing recent underperformance relative to the Gold Index and supportive fundamentals.

The broker expects Greatland to close FY25 with approximately $530m in cash and generate 6% free cash flow in FY26.

At a long-term real gold price of US$2,300/oz, Greatland trades on less than 1.2 times price/net asset value (NAV), highlights Citi.

An updated Havieron study due in the December quarter is expected to outline a larger 4–4.5mtpa project, balancing capital and operating costs while unlocking lower-grade material.

Citi’s long-term gold price forecast moves to US$2,300/oz (real) from US$2,200/oz.

GRAINCORP LIMITED ((GNC)) was upgraded to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 4/1/0

Bell Potter upgrades GrainCorp to Buy from Hold with a higher target price of $8.45 from $7.85 due to the outlook for east coast yields improving recently.

In addition, canola crush margins have risen, while the weaker share price offers an opportunity ahead of September Abare crop report, commentary suggests.

Near-term rainfall forecasts have improved for the east coast post the June Abare crop report, while CSIRO Wheatcast modelling suggests a 71% chance of east coast crops exceeding median yields, with a 29% chance of coming in above the long-term average.

Spot crush margins are now aligned with a year ago after a weaker patch earlier in 2025, the broker suggests.

There is no change to EPS estimates.

INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED ((IAG)) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 2/2/0

UBS upgrades Insurance Australia Group to Buy with the shares down -10% since late June. CAT protection comes at a cost, around -$250m in FY25, equating to a -2.5% drag on the insurance trading result (ITR) margin.

UBS highlights the cost may be offset by reinsurance profit commissions, which are not fully reflected in market expectations.

These commissions, paid back by re-insurers when claims are low, could add approximately 60–70 basis points to Insurance Australia Group’s ITR margin and lift EPS by 4.5–5.3% annually, based on the analyst’s simulations of historic CAT data.

With FY25 CAT costs tracking below budget and other strategic initiatives underway, the analyst sees upside risks to both EPS and the stock’s valuation, prompting an upgrade to Buy.

Target price rises to $9.50 from $9.30.

IMDEX LIMITED ((IMD)) was upgraded to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 2/3/0

Bell Potter raises its target for Imdex to $3.05 from $2.65 and upgrades to Buy from Hold, noting early signs of a recovery in exploration activity and improved industry sentiment.

Junior equity raisings rose 65% year-on-year in the six months to June 2025, the highest since late 2021, which the broker sees as a positive signal for mineral exploration demand.

Industry updates from global manufacturer of mining and infrastructure equipment Epiroc and London-based Capital Drilling (mining services and drilling contractor) also point to renewed exploration investment, highlight the analysts.

Bell Potter lifts its FY26–27 EPS forecasts by 5% and 4%, respectively, driven by higher revenue growth, stronger margins, and lower cost of debt assumptions.

PANTORO GOLD LIMITED ((PNR)) was upgraded to Buy from Speculative Buy by Ord Minnett and to Hold from Sell by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 1/1/0

Ord Minnett observes Pantoro Gold announced a robust 4Q25 result with a FY26 guidance outlook that should benefit from higher grades, the analyst notes, as Scotia UG ramps up.

All-in-sustaining-costs came in lower than the broker’s forecasts and the miner generated $43m in cashflow compared to Ord Minnett’s $32m anticipated.

The analyst raises EPS estimates by 12%-16% for FY25-FY26 The stock is upgraded to Buy from Speculative Buy with a $4 target from $3.55.

Bell Potter upgrades Pantoro Gold to Hold from Sell with a lift in target price to $3.15 from $2.30 post the release of its June quarter production results from Norseman gold project, of 25,417oz at all-in-sustaining-costs of $1991oz.

The broker highlights production was considerably higher than forecasts and costs much lower. For FY25 the miner produced gold of 84,563oz with all-in-sustaining-costs of $2261 and positive free cash flow.

Cash and bullion at quarter end stood at $175.8m from $132.5m in the prior quarter. Pantoro is now debt free with FY26 production guidance at 100-110koz at cost of $1950-$2250 which would make the miner one of the lowest cost producers on the ASX, Bell Potter states.

The analyst lifts EPS forecasts by 16% for FY25 and lowers FY26 by -15%.

REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED ((RRL)) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 1/4/2

Regis Resources delivered solid FY25 results, according to UBS, with June quarter production of 87.4koz bringing the full-year total to 373koz, the top end of guidance. Costs (AISC) at $2,531/oz were also below the guided range midpoint, highlight the analysts.

FY26 production guidance of 350–380koz is in line with the broker’s expectations, though cost guidance of $2,610–2,990/oz is around -7% worse than UBS estimates. The latter is thought to reflect broader sector inflation and non-cash adjustments of $170/oz.

UBS raises its FY25 EPS forecast by 15% on better revenue and lower depreciation, but trims FY26–27 estimates due to slightly lower output and higher unit costs.

UBS upgrades to a Neutral rating from Sell and lowers its target price to $4.60 from $4.75.

See also RRL downgrade.

SIGMA HEALTHCARE LIMITED ((SIG)) was upgraded to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/2/1

Ord Minnett raises its target for Sigma Healthcare to $3.00 from $2.70 and upgrades to Accumulate from Hold. The broker forecasts underlying earnings (EBIT) of $836m for FY25.

The broker estimates a 3-year EPS compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of circa 21%, driven by merger synergies, international expansion into Ireland and the UAE.

Margin benefits are also anticipated from Wagner Pharma’s contribution to the private label strategy. Wagner is a core private label and exclusive brand in Australian pharmacy channels.

Sigma’s distribution centres hold more than 45k sqm of unused space, while private label revenue growth and fragmented offshore markets represent upside risk, suggests Ord Minnett.

In the bad books

Downgrades

ALCIDION GROUP LIMITED ((ALC)) was downgraded to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 0/1/0

Bell Potter downgrades Alcidion Group to Hold from Buy as the current share price reflects the strong execution in FY25 and the outlook, the analyst explains.

The group announced a robust June quarter update with record results for both cash received and net operating cash flow.

FY25 operating cash flow came in at $5.8m, which was a $12.9m improvement on FY24, the broker states. With cash of $17.7m, the balance sheet is stronger.

Bell Potter raises earnings (EBITDA) estimates for FY25–FY26, with the FY25 forecast of $4.7m now in line with guidance.

Target price is lifted to 13c from 11c.

AMP LIMITED ((AMP)) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/2/0

AMP’s 2Q2025 report showed platform net cashflows rising $1.6bn, up 63.2% on the previous year, with AUM rising to $83.2bn from $78.8bn in the prior quarter, largely due to positive market moves, Macquarie explains.

The bank’s gross loans and advances grew 1.6% on an annualised basis, up $185m in the quarter and closing at $23.5bn. No comments were offered on net interest margin or the strategic direction of the bank.

Macquarie lifts 2025 and 2026 EPS forecasts by 0.6% and 2.5%, respectively, from higher investment income.

The broker downgrades the stock to Neutral from Outperform due to a rise in the share price of 42%. Target price is lifted to $1.70 from $1.44 on a changed valuation methodology. AMP is due to report 1H25 result on August 7.

BAPCOR LIMITED ((BAP)) was downgraded to Hold from Accumulate by Morgans and to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/4/0

Morgans notes Bapcor has delivered a disappointing FY25 update with profit of between $81–82m, down -14% year-on-year and implying a -21% decline in second-half earnings.

All divisions recorded sales declines in 2H25, with particularly weak trading in May–June, highlights the broker. Management also flagged -$48–50m in significant items and a -$24m overstatement in past profits, alongside the immediate resignation of three Board members.

The analysts see few positives, noting Specialist Wholesale disruptions were deeper than expected, Trade momentum slowed, and Retail and NZ conditions remain weak.

Execution risk remains high, suggests the broker, given the group’s size and complexity, and recent deterioration has reduced near-term earnings confidence.

Morgans’ forecasts for EPS across FY25–27 have been cut by -18.1% to -32.5%. The rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate and the target price reduced to $3.70 from $5.95.

Macquarie reports FY25 adjusted profit guidance of $81–82m by management at Bapcor is -15% below consensus and the broker’s own estimates, and places 2H earnings around -30% below expectations.

The analyst notes revenue declined across all segments except Trade, which grew 1.4% year-on-year, although trading conditions softened in May and June.

Retail remains challenged, assesses Macquarie, with FY25 revenue down -3.5%, as Bapcor flagged lower discretionary spending, heightened competition, and promotional strategy changes.

Specialist Wholesale fell -3.1%, impacted by consolidation activity and ERP integration, explains the broker. Cost savings hit the top end of the -$20–30m target, but offsetting strategic investments are expected.

Macquarie lowers its target price to $3.80 from $5.85 and downgrades to Neutral from Outperform.

BHP GROUP LIMITED ((BHP)) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 4/2/0

Macquarie notes BHP Group’s June quarter report beat expectations on most metrics, and FY25 units cost comments pointed to an in-line outcome. FY26 guidance was also in line with consensus.

The impact on the broker’s forecasts was mixed, with FY25 EPS rising 4% but FY26 cut by -6%, mainly on a -5% cut to the EBITDA forecast.

The cost blowout at the Jansen potash mine points to future execution risk of the company’s capital program, though the broker believes the deferral of stage 2 is prudent. EPS forecasts for FY28-30 trimmed slightly on stage 2 deferral.

Target rises to $41 from $40. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.

CHALLENGER LIMITED ((CGF)) was downgraded to Underweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 5/1/1

Morgan Stanley downgrades Challenger to Underweight from Equal-weight as the analyst believes there are risks to revenue margins as APRA wants better pricing for customers, while acknowledging the positive tailwinds from lighter capital requirements and longevity growth options.

The broker points to offsetting lower pricing with higher volumes, which could be difficult for Challenger given the relatively attractive pricing on term deposits and rising competition from other retirement products.

With the share price having rallied 37% year to date, Morgan Stanley sees better value in other wealth managers, notably AMP ((AMP)).

Target price is lifted to $6.60 from $6.40. Industry view is In-Line.

ENDEAVOUR GROUP LIMITED ((EDV)) was downgraded to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/5/1

Macquarie highlights a lack of confidence in 2025 continues to be an overhang on consumer spending, but share prices for consumer-related stocks have run ahead of the recovery expected as the RBA lowers interest rates.

Coles Group ((COL)) is a key pick for the broker, alongside Harvey Norman ((HVN)) and Bega Cheese ((BGA)).

Endeavour Group is a key avoid, along with Sigma Healthcare ((SIG)), and the stock is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral.

Target price falls to $3.80 from $4.10 due to an expected longer-term growth rate with uncertainty around a clear strategy and headwinds facing retail sales.

FORTESCUE LIMITED ((FMG)) was downgraded to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/4/1

Macquarie downgrades Fortescue to Underperform from Neutral on expectations of lower iron ore prices in 2H2025, with a lift in target price to $17 due to lower cost expectations.

The miner reported better-than-expected 4Q25 production and shipments, up 5%, with hematite costs coming in -6% lower than anticipated and net debt reduced by approximately -US$0.8bn.

Although described as a “perverse” outcome, the analyst believes the -US$150m write-down of the electrolyser factory and once-subsidised hydrogen hub is a “step forward” for Fortescue, signalling a commitment to a more conservative technology and innovation strategy.

Accounting for the June quarter update and FY26 guidance, Macquarie tweaks EPS estimates by 1% to 4% for FY25–FY26.

GOLD ROAD RESOURCES LIMITED ((GOR)) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 0/4/0

UBS highlights the surprise in Gold Road Resources’ June quarterly was the $300/oz lift in cost to $2,928/oz, higher than its forecast of $2,531/oz. Production of 72.98koz at an average realised price of $5,131/oz was pre-reported.

While the company didn’t provide a reason for the higher cost, it was noted the rise was a sector-wide trend. The broker now expects the FY25 cost to come at the top end of $2,400-2,600/oz guidance and production at the low end of 325-355koz.

Target cut to $3.25 from $3.55 in line with the Gold Fields takeover offer price. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Buy.

ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED ((ILU)) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 3/2/0

Iluka Resources reported June quarter revenue of $289m, which was basically in line with Citi’s forecast, rising 15% from the prior quarter.

Total zircon, rutile and zirconium of 133kt rose 14% on the March quarter but came below the broker’s estimate by -5%. Realised prices were below estimate by -3% but up 1% from the March period.

Commentary posits the decline in zircon prices by -7% since the March quarter suggests prices have not troughed yet.

Positively, Balranald is on track for 2H2025 commissioning and net debt, including the refinery, came in at $502m.

Citi downgrades the stock to Neutral/High Risk from Buy/High Risk. Target raised to $5.30 from $5.20.

INGHAMS GROUP LIMITED ((ING)) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/3/0

Macquarie highlights a lack of confidence in 2025 continues to be an overhang on consumer spending, but share prices for consumer-related stocks have run ahead of the recovery expected as the RBA lowers interest rates.

Coles Group ((COL)) is a key pick for the broker, alongside Harvey Norman ((HVN)) and Bega Cheese ((BGA)).

Macquarie lowers EPS forecasts for Inghams Group by -4% for FY25 and -6% for FY26 due to the unwinding of R&D tax credits, which is partially offset by lower interest costs.

The stock is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform and target price rises to $3.70 from $3.50.

JB HI-FI LIMITED ((JBH)) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/2/3

Macquarie highlights a lack of confidence in 2025 continues to be an overhang on consumer spending, but share prices for consumer-related stocks have run ahead of the recovery expected as the RBA lowers interest rates.

Macquarie downgrades JB Hi-Fi to Neutral from Outperform and target lifts to $112 from $111. No change to the analyst’s EPS forecasts.

The broker states it would “look to add” JB Hi-Fi and Metcash ((MTS)) on any pullbacks for exposure to cyclical housing recovery.

KAROON ENERGY LIMITED ((KAR)) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/2/0

Macquarie lowers its target for Karoon Energy to $1.80 from $2.15 and downgrades to Neutral from Outperform, citing elevated uncertainty from the CEO transition and a subdued oil price outlook.

June quarter production of 25kb/d at Bauna was solid, assesses the broker, with Floating Production, Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel uptime at 94.5%, tracking toward the top end of guidance.

FPSO operations will be managed in-house from 1H26, observes the analyst.

The Who Dat joint venture will pursue a final investment decision on Who Dat East in late 2025 or early 2026. The Neon project is progressing, highlights Macquarie, with front-end engineering underway and a -30–50% farm-down targeted by end-2025.

LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED ((LYC)) was downgraded to Sell from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/0/4

Ord Minnett downgrades Lynas Rare Earths to Sell from Hold, as the analyst believes the share price rally following the July 11 announcement by the US Department of Defence with MP Materials is misguided.

The elevation of MP Materials to the US’s favoured rare earth mine-to-magnet supplier is likely to make Lynas’ Seadrift separation plant not viable, as it would impact the US Department of Defence’s pricing with MP Materials, the analyst explains.

Lynas should benefit from higher rare earth prices in the West, but expectations of prices around MP’s guaranteed level of US$110/kg for NdPr for its Asian customers are very unlikely, Ord Minnett states.

METEORIC RESOURCES NL ((MEI)) was downgraded to Speculative Hold from Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 2/1/0

Bell Potter downgrades Meteoric Resources to Speculative Hold from Buy with the stock up a ‘meteoric’ 158% since April.

The company announced the results of its pre-feasibility study on Caldeira’s IAC rare earths project in Brazil with plant capacity increased to 6mtpa from 5mtpa on a dry basis and project capex up 10% to -US$443m including a -US$86m contingency.

The analyst points to the negative rise in operating costs with the scoping study suggesting a 40% lift, and the major challenge for the company remains the preliminary license, with around 90% of mined material inside the 3km zone of an environmental protection zone.

Target lowered to 16c from 17c. No change in Bell Potter’s EPS forecasts.

METCASH LIMITED ((MTS)) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/3/0

Macquarie highlights a lack of confidence in 2025 continues to be an overhang on consumer spending, but share prices for consumer-related stocks have run ahead of the recovery expected as the RBA lowers interest rates.

Macquarie downgrades Metcash to Neutral from Outperform with no change to its $4 target.

The broker states it would “look to add” JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)) and Metcash on any pullbacks for exposure to cyclical housing recovery.

NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED ((NST)) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 3/4/0

After assessing Northern Star Resources’ June quarter update as mixed and highlighting there was no clarity on capex/costs post-FY26, Citi added $165m to its FY27-28 capex forecast.

The broker also cut EBITDA forecast for FY26 by -3% and for FY27 by -7%. The company is expected to draw $750m debt in 1H27 from its $1.5bn facility to partially fund the Hemi development project.

Rating downgraded to Neutral from Buy. Target price trimmed to $18 from $21.

PERENTI LIMITED ((PRN)) was downgraded to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 2/1/0

Perenti has upgraded its FY25 free cashflow guidance to approximately $280m, well above the prior estimate of $150m, highlights Bell Potter.

The uplift is mainly due to the $75m sale of mining equipment and $17m in inventory from the concluded Zone 5 Copper mine contract, explain the analysts. Even excluding this, free cashflow would be $190m, still $40m ahead of guidance.

Improved cash conversion above 95% and lower capex of circa -$300m (versus prior -$330m) also contributed to the result, reinforcing management’s focus on capital efficiency, suggests Bell Potter.

While this supports near-term deleveraging, Bell Potter expects capex to rise again as new contracts are mobilised, especially those requiring company-owned plant.

Bell Potter downgrades to a Hold rating from Buy, after an around 80% share price rise in the past year, and retains its target price of $1.80.

QORIA LIMITED ((QOR)) was downgraded to Hold High Risk from Buy High Risk by Shaw and Partners .B/H/S: 1/1/0

Shaw and Partners lowers its rating on Qoria to Downgrade to Hold High Risk from Buy High Risk following the company’s June quarter update, which included FY25 results and initial FY26 guidance. The 52c target is unchanged.

The broker questions the achievability of the company’s goal to reach free cash flow breakeven in FY26, pointing to a narrow $15m cash balance and FY25 cash burn of around -$18m including interest.

FY25 ended with annual recurring revenue (ARR) of $145m, revenue of $117m, and operating earnings of $15.4m, though reported cash earnings were negative -$14.7m, highlights the broker.

FY26 guidance implies to the analyst 20% revenue growth, a 22% EBITDA margin and flat net debt, which the broker finds difficult to reconcile with expected cash costs and interest burden.

Shaw believes FY27 should be an improvement as Qoria completes its product consolidation and gains flexibility to reduce debt and reinvest in growth.

REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED ((RRL)) was downgraded to Sell from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 1/4/2

Gold production of 350–380koz was slightly softer-than-expected by Citi. Costs (AISC) at $2,800/oz were around $100/oz worse than the consensus estimate, although $170/oz of this was non-cash and already modelled, explain the analysts.

Growth capex at Duketon is a key variance, with guidance of -$165–175m well above consensus of -$90m, observes the broker, as higher-cost pits and stockpiles are being mined to leverage current gold prices.

Citi lowers its net asset value (NAV) by -9% due to the higher cost base and cuts its target price by -30c to $3.80, noting the stock’s circa 20% outperformance versus the Gold Index so far this year. The broker’s rating is downgraded to a Sell rating from Neutral.

See also RRL upgrade.

WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED ((WDS)) was downgraded to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/5/0

Ord Minnett describes Woodside Energy’s June-quarter report as solid, with production meeting expectations and sales volumes and revenue surpassing consensus forecasts.

Outperformance was largely driven by Sangomar and inventory drawdowns at Pluto/Wheatstone, explains the analyst.

2025 production guidance was modestly tightened, unit production cost guidance was reduced by around -8% per boe, and capital expenditure was revised approximately -10% lower.

The broker estimates around US$170m in upside to consensus first-half underlying net profit, helped by capitalised interest and other income.

The broker’s EPS forecasts are raised sharply:  by 67% for 2025, 75.5% for 2026, and 30.5% for 2027, bringing estimates in line with the market, with a matching 67% increase in forecast 2025 dividends.

Ord Minnett lowers its rating to Hold from Buy on valuation grounds, maintaining a $25.00 target price following an around 15% rise in the share price since early June.

Earnings forecast

Listed below are the companies that have had their forecast current year earnings raised or lowered by the brokers last week. The qualification is that the stock must be covered by at least two brokers. The table shows the previous forecast on an earnings per share basis, the new forecast, and the percentage change.