For the week ended Friday 18 July 2025, FNArena tracked six upgrades and 20 downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.
Nearly half of the downgrades resulted from a prereview to the upcoming reporting season for Australian REITs by Macquarie. The broker believes FY26 guidance will likely be a key differentiator, with some REITs poised to return to growth while others continue to face structural and market headwinds.
Macquarie’s assessment suggests the sector remains expensive, with asset values still exposed to downside risk given stretched relative returns and wide bid-ask spreads amid limited transactional evidence.
As a result, downgrades ensued for Goodman Group, Scentre Group, Vicinity Centres, Charter Hall Group, Centuria Capital, Charter Hall Long WALE REIT, Charter Hall Retail REIT, Centuria Industrial REIT, and Growthpoint Properties Australia.
Macquarie’s preferred exposures are Mirvac Group, GPT Group, Dexus, DigiCo Infrastructure REIT, Arena REIT, and Qualitas. Least preferred are Scentre Group, Vicinity Centres, Charter Hall Group, Charter Hall Long WALE REIT, and Charter Hall Retail REIT.
For the week, rises in average target prices generally outweighed falls while the tables below show decreases in average earnings forecasts held sway over increases.
The average target for Johns Lyng rose by nearly 14% after management entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with an entity controlled by Pacific Equity Partners at $4.00 per share.
Morgans views the offer as reasonable in light of recent share price weakness and near-term earnings softness as the company works to rebuild business-as-usual (BAU) volumes in its NSW Insurance Building and its Restoration Services (IB&RS) division.
Investors are advised to await the required approvals from FIRB, ASIC, and the ASX, or maybe a superior offer might emerge?
Morgan Stanley notes CEO and Managing Director Scott Didier, who holds approximately 17.6% of Johns Lyng shares, intends to vote in favour of the Scheme and will roll his stake into the new entity via scrip.
Oil and gas exploration and production company Amplitude Energy’s average target price jumped by just over 13%, as fourth quarter FY25 results came in slightly ahead of Macquarie’s expectations. While some concern centred on weaker cash conversion, the broker attributed this to timing rather than underlying performance. Production and sales were 16% higher than the prior quarter, mostly on strong performance at Orbost and the impact of maintenance in the prior quarter, explained Bell Potter.
With utilisation rising at the company’s two Victorian gas plants amid a tight market, the analyst at Macquarie sees a clear path to 38c (shares closed last Friday at 24.5c).
Following this month’s June quarter update, the average target for digital wealth platform provider Hub24 also rose by 10%. UBS expects Hub24’s stronger net inflow momentum will drive further market share gains over the medium term, reinforcing the broker’s relative preference for the company over competitor Netwealth Group.
Morgan Stanley highlighted the company’s strong net revenue retention (NRR) metric, which is highly correlated with a premium multiple for software stocks, as a foundation for years of durable growth.
Regarding positive changes to average earnings forecasts, here Hansen Technologies (a global provider of software and services to the energy, water, and communications industries) led the pack with a 19% increase in response to an upgrade in management’s FY25 guidance. New research by broker Moelis highlighted the turnaround of the 2024 acquisition of German software platform acquisition power cloud as a meaningful near-term earnings growth opportunity, setting a 12-month target price of $6.00 and starting with a Buy rating.
Hansen offers a differentiated investment case among Australian software stocks under Morgan Stanley’s coverage due to consistently strong earnings and free cash flow generation over an extended period.
Specialist alternative investment manager Regal Partners enjoyed a nearly 15% rise in average earnings forecast. Morgans updated its earnings estimates to reflect the announcement of at least $35m in first half 2025 performance fee revenue. The broker had forecast no performance fee for the period. The uplift was driven by strong performance from global long/short equity strategies, notably PM Capital’s global equities strategy and the new Regal Global Small Companies Fund.
Bell Potter highlighted a strong rebound in the second quarter across funds under management, management fees, and future performance fee potential. While the share price has recovered from its lows, the broker felt recent momentum is not yet fully reflected in the valuation, which remains well below historical highs.
On the flipside, 29Metals, Iluka Resources, and South32 experienced material declines in average earnings forecasts. Iluka Resources shares rallied last week following a US Department of Defence deal with US-based MP Materials, which includes a 10-year price floor of US$110/kg for NdPr versus spot of US$63.6/kg.
Unfortunately, the deal was exclusive to MP Materials, highlighted Ord Minnett, reflecting the US’s strategic interests and “America First” policies and doesn’t have implications for other companies, such as Iluka. This broker cut its target to $5.50 from $5.90 on revisions to price forecasts for rare earth oxides and mineral sands and downgraded to Accumulate from Buy.
In the good books: upgrades
BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED ((BRG)) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral by UBS. B/H/S: 4/2/0
UBS upgrades Breville Group to Buy from Neutral, with a higher target of $35.50 from $33.10, following analysis of the global coffee machine market, which gives the analyst confidence the group can double sales over the next decade.
Coffee machines represent around 50% to 60% of sales, with an estimated total addressable market of US$13bn in Breville’s main markets. The segment has been growing at a compound annual rate of approximately 7% per annum. The analyst points to additional TAM from new markets, such as Korea, China, and the Middle East, at an estimated US$2bn, with “significant” upside as coffee culture takes hold and evolves.
Korea’s direct distribution model has increased market share to around 7% in FY24 from 4%, and the group is pursuing a go-direct strategy in China, which is viewed as a major opportunity. The market is growing at 16% per annum, with coffee machine penetration per capita at around one-tenth of Korea’s.
CATALYST METALS LIMITED ((CYL)) was upgraded to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans. B/H/S: 2/0/0
Morgans updated its model for Catalyst Metals ahead of the June quarterly, with the biggest change being unit cost estimates for both FY25 and FY26, and capex for FY25. Revenue forecast for FY25 declined by -1% while FY26 was left unchanged. The broker is forecasting FY25 production of 105koz, at the low end of guidance and vs consensus of 106koz. Cost forecast for FY25 lifted to $2,433/oz from $2,390/oz and compares with the consensus of $2,449/oz. Target cut to $6.93 from $7.15. Rating upgraded to Buy from Accumulate.
IKEGPS GROUP LIMITED ((IKE)) was upgraded to Buy from Speculative Buy by Bell Potter. B/H/S: 2/0/0
ikeGPS Group has launched a capital raise via an $18m placement at 81 cents (a -4.1% discount to the last close) and a $2m share purchase plan (SPP). Bell Potter explains proceeds will fund further development of two subscription module products and bolster sales and marketing initiatives aimed at embedding its platform more deeply with utility and communications clients. The analysts make no changes to earnings forecasts but incorporates updated share count and cash position. Positive operating cash flow and a stronger balance sheet support the removal of the Speculative designation. Bell Potter upgrades to Buy from Speculative Buy and sets a target price of $1.14, down from $1.17.
QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED ((QAN)) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral by Citi. B/H/S: 3/3/0
Citi prefers Qantas Airways over Virgin Australia citing superior exposure to international and low-cost carrier segments, which are viewed as key growth drivers in the current market. Qantas is better positioned to capture incremental demand from Western Sydney Airport, highlight the analysts, with commitments already in place, unlike Virgin. Also, Qantas is expected to benefit from fuel cost tailwinds and its new distribution strategy, launched in July, which Citi believes will offer a relative cost advantage. Domestic market growth is seen as modest, with top-line gains largely price-driven, notes the broker. Citi upgrades Qantas to Buy from Neutral. Target price lifts to $12.20 from $9.60.
REGION GROUP ((RGN)) was upgraded to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie. B/H/S: 3/2/1
In a preview of the August earnings season, Macquarie sees limited earnings risk for Australian REITs, with FY25 EPS growth for the sector forecast at 4.3%. For FY26, the broker believes headwinds are reducing and expects EPS growth of 5.8%, with an acceleration to 10.6% growth in FY27. Revised expectation for the cash rate is a key driver as Macquarie strategists now expect -125bps of rate cuts in this cycle vs -75bps forecast in January. Within the sector, the broker expects retail and logistics to be the top performers in terms of earnings, driven by income growth, low maintenance capital expenditures, and reduced lease incentive leakage. The broker lifted the FY25 EPS forecast for Region Group by 0.1% and by 0.7% for FY26. Target rises to $2.16 from $2.03. Rating upgraded to Neutral from Underperform.
TELSTRA GROUP LIMITED ((TLS)) was upgraded to Hold from Sell by Morgans. B/H/S: 3/3/0
Morgans upgraded Telstra Group rating to Hold from Sell as it now believes the share could stay expensive for some time, given management’s optimism about medium-term growth targets. The broker also notes its previous assumption mobile pricing will decline after three years of increases no longer appears valid as prices continue to increase, with discounting also fading. EPS forecast for FY26 are slightly trimmed as the analyst incorporated the on-market share buyback (now completed) into estimates. Target rises to $4.70 from $4.00 due to a valuation change.
In the bad books: downgrades
ABACUS STORAGE KING ((ASK)) was downgraded to Hold, Medium Risk from Buy by Shaw and Partners. B/H/S: 1/2/0
Abacus Storage King received an upwardly revised takeover offer from a consortium of Ki Corporation and Public Storage for $1.65/unit, up from the previously rejected $1.47/unit less distribution of 3.1c. Shaw and Partners notes the revised proposal continues to undervalue the company as it is below NTA of $1.73. The broker notes there is a risk National Storage REIT ((NSR)) could block the deal because it recently increased its stake (currently 9.51%). The analyst doesn’t think the REIT is interested in fully acquiring Abacus Storage King but may want to ensure it is bought at a fair price by a well-capitalised US competitor. Target unchanged at $1.65, with the risk the share price will decline as the transaction doesn’t go through. Rating downgraded to Hold, Medium Risk from Buy.
BRICKWORKS LIMITED ((BKW)) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy by UBS. B/H/S: 1/3/0
Noting the merger between Brickworks and WH Soul Pattinson ((SOL)) to form a new ASX-listed company TopCo, UBS flags the removal of around 148m shares cross-held between the two companies, with Brickworks, WH Soul Pattinson and new shareholders to own around 72%, 19% and 9%, respectively. The broker points to the TopCo equity raising of $1.4bn for 34m shares, which will be used to pay down some of Brickworks’ debt and fund transaction costs. UBS views the Australian building products market has bottomed, but US conditions are expected to remain challenging.
With the market giving the nod of approval to the deal and both Brickworks and WH Soul Pattinson shares up around 13% and 24%, respectively, UBS downgrades Brickworks to Neutral from Buy. Target price rises 18% due to the mark-to-market of listed investments and is set at $34.25.
CHARTER HALL GROUP ((CHC)) was downgraded to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie. B/H/S: 2/1/2
In a preview of the August earnings season, Macquarie sees limited earnings risk for Australian REITs, with FY25 EPS growth for the sector forecast at 4.3%. For FY26, the broker believes headwinds are reducing and expects EPS growth of 5.8%, with an acceleration to 10.6% growth in FY27. Revised expectation for the cash rate is a key driver as Macquarie strategists now expect -125bps of rate cuts in this cycle vs -75bps forecast in January. Within the sector, the broker expects retail and logistics to be the top performers in terms of earnings, driven by income growth, low maintenance capital expenditures, and reduced lease incentive leakage. The broker lifted the FY25 EPS forecast for Charter Hall by 0.5%, and FY26 by 1%. Target rises to $17.31 from $17.15. Rating downgraded to Underperform from Neutral on valuation.
CENTURIA INDUSTRIAL REIT ((CIP)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie. B/H/S: 2/4/0
In a preview of the August earnings season, Macquarie sees limited earnings risk for Australian REITs, with FY25 EPS growth for the sector forecast at 4.3%. The broker cut the FY25 EPS forecast for Centuria Industrial REIT by -0.3% but lifted the FY26 forecast by 4% on higher income growth following under-renting in the portfolio. Target falls to $3.22 from $3.34. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.
CHARTER HALL LONG WALE REIT ((CLW)) was downgraded to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie. B/H/S: 1/2/1
In a preview of the August earnings season, Macquarie sees limited earnings risk for Australian REITs, with FY25 EPS growth for the sector forecast at 4.3%. No change to the broker’s FY25 EPS forecast for Charter Hall Long WALE REIT but a 2.6% lift to the FY26 forecast. Target falls to $3.52 from $3.73 as the broker forecasts 20bps of cap rate expansion vs before. Rating downgraded to Underperform from Neutral on valuation.
CENTURIA CAPITAL GROUP ((CNI)) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie. B/H/S: 2/3/0
In a preview of the August earnings season, Macquarie sees limited earnings risk for Australian REITs, with FY25 EPS growth for the sector forecast at 4.3%. The broker lifted the FY25 EPS forecast for Centuria Capital by 0.2% but lowered the FY26 forecast by -1%. Target rises to $1.79 from $1.78. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Outperform on valuation.
COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED ((CPU)) was downgraded to Underweight from Equal weight by Morgan Stanley. B/H/S: 0/4/2
Morgan Stanley lowers its target for Computershare to $33.70 from $34.40 and downgrades to Underweight from Equal weight, noting limited EPS growth beyond FY25. Industry View: In-Line. The analysts also see downside risk to margin income (MI), which has comprised over 70% of profit (PBT) since FY23. The broker forecasts FY26 earnings Management EPS growth of just 3%, down from 15% in FY25, driven by an around -8% fall in MI, moderating yields and weaker balance growth. While improved capital markets may benefit event-driven and transactional revenues, weak issuance in trust services and falling rates present further risk to balances, suggests the broker.
CHARTER HALL RETAIL REIT ((CQR)) was downgraded to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie. B/H/S: 1/1/1
In a preview of the August earnings season, Macquarie sees limited earnings risk for Australian REITs, with FY25 EPS growth for the sector forecast at 4.3%. The broker cut the FY25 EPS forecast for Charter Hall Retail REIT by -0.4% and by -1% for FY26. Target unchanged at $3.51. Rating downgraded to Underperform from Neutral for valuation reasons.
DRONESHIELD LIMITED ((DRO)) was downgraded to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter. B/H/S: 0/2/0
Bell Potter downgrades DroneShield to Hold from Buy due to the re-rating of listed peers, both domestically and globally, which is viewed as overdone, with risks to the stock price due to valuation. The analyst notes an additional $9.7m contract from a LatAm customer and a two-year $11.7m R&D contract with a Five Eyes Department of Defence, on top of the $61m order announced in June 25, bringing the estimated total contracted revenue for 2025 to around $175m. The company is investing -$13m in a multi-year lease and fit-out for an additional Sydney facility, which is flagged to open in December and lift annual production to $900m by mid-2026. Bell Potter’s earnings forecasts have been raised for longer-term revenue, with a “material” rise in operating expenses as DroneShield continues to scale its operations at a faster-than-anticipated rate. The target price is raised to $3.80 from $2.60.
ENDEAVOUR GROUP LIMITED ((EDV)) was downgraded to Equal weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley. B/H/S: 1/6/0
Morgan Stanley downgrades Endeavour Group to Equal weight from Overweight, as the Australian liquor market remains challenged amid increased promotions over 4Q25 and ongoing sluggish sales. The analyst sees the group failing to increase market share and lowers the 2H25 retail forecast, now sitting -3% below consensus, with stronger hotel performance noted as a possible offsetting factor. Morgan Stanley also highlights media reports that the group is assessing the postponement of aspects of the OneEndeavour program, which could elevate market uncertainty around strategic direction while lowering cost estimates for FY26. The target price slips to $4.60 from $5.10. Industry View: In-line.
EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED ((EVN)) was downgraded to Trim from Hold by Morgans. B/H/S: 0/2/3
Evolution Mining met expectations on the FY25 report, with production, cost and capex all in line with the guidance. The highlight was the cashflow, Morgans notes, rising 49% q/q to $308m, leading to a -34% reduction in net debt vs December 2024 to $849m. For FY26, the company flagged a 14% increase in cost due to inflationary pressures and non-cash items, and expects gold and copper production to be flat y/y. The broker cut its FY25 gold production estimate and lifted cost and capex forecasts. Target cut to $7.00 from $7.40. Rating downgraded to Trim from Hold.
GOODMAN GROUP ((GMG)) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie. B/H/S: 3/3/0
In a preview of the August earnings season, Macquarie sees limited earnings risk for Australian REITs, with FY25 EPS growth for the sector forecast at 4.3%. For FY26, the broker believes headwinds are reducing and expects EPS growth of 5.8%, with an acceleration to 10.6% growth in FY27. The broker cut the FY25 EPS forecast for Goodman Group by -0.1% and by -0.7% for FY26. Target falls to $35.24 from $36.06. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Outperform for valuation reasons.
GROWTHPOINT PROPERTIES AUSTRALIA ((GOZ)) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie. B/H/S: 2/1/0
In a preview of the August earnings season, Macquarie sees limited earnings risk for Australian REITs, with FY25 EPS growth for the sector forecast at 4.3%. For FY26, the broker believes headwinds are reducing and expects EPS growth of 5.8%, with an acceleration to 10.6% growth in FY27. Forecasts for Growthpoint Properties Australia largely unchanged. Target falls to $2.40 from $2.57. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Outperform on valuation grounds.
ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED ((ILU)) was downgraded to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett. B/H/S: 4/1/0
Ord Minnett notes rare earths companies, including Iluka Resources (up 21%), rose after MP Materials signed a deal with the US Department of Defense guaranteeing US$100/kg for NdPr. The broker highlights the deal was exclusive to MP Materials, reflecting the US’s strategic interests and “America First” policies and doesn’t have implications for other companies, including Iluka. The broker assumes US$94/kg as sufficient to stimulate global supply. Target price cut to $5.50 from $5.90 on revisions to price forecasts for REOs, mineral sands and AUD/USD. Rating downgraded to Accumulate from Buy.
JOHNS LYNG GROUP LIMITED ((JLG)) was downgraded to Equal weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley. B/H/S: 0/5/0
Johns Lyng has entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with an entity controlled by Pacific Equity Partners at $4/share. Morgan Stanley notes the CEO holds a 17.6% stake and will vote in favour of the deal, as will other key management members. Rating downgraded to Equal weight from Overweight. Target rises to $4.00 from $3.40. Industry View: In-line.
MATRIX COMPOSITES & ENGINEERING LIMITED ((MCE)) was downgraded to Speculative Hold from Speculative Buy by Bell Potter. B/H/S: 1/1/0
Ahead of Matrix Composites & Engineering’s FY25 financial results, Bell Potter noted its expectation of $78.9m group revenue, in line with the company’s guidance. The broker expects underlying net loss of -$1.0m. No changes to forecasts but the broker has flagged the risk of delays in major contract wins in 1H26 that could lead to significant earnings downgrades. Target unchanged at 28c. Rating downgraded to Speculative Hold from Speculative Buy following recent share price strength.
PEPPER MONEY LIMITED ((PPM)) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie. B/H/S: 0/2/0
Macquarie believes the current RBA rate cut cycle and low funding costs are supportive for non-bank lenders, reflected in an increase in their market share of new mortgages. While pressure from banks has generally stabilised, the analyst notes competition within the sector has increased. For Pepper Money, the broker cut FY25 EPS forecast by -1% and FY26 by -4% mainly on reduced dilution from buybacks. Target lifted to $1.70 from $1.65 on valuation roll-forward. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Outperform following share price rally.
SCENTRE GROUP ((SCG)) was downgraded to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie. B/H/S: 3/1/1
In a preview of the August earnings season, Macquarie sees limited earnings risk for Australian REITs, with FY25 EPS growth for the sector forecast at 4.3%. For FY26, the broker believes headwinds are reducing and expects EPS growth of 5.8%, with an acceleration to 10.6% growth in FY27. The broker lifted the FY25 EPS forecast for Scentre Group by 0.7% and by 1.7% for FY26. For 1H25, the analyst is forecasting EPS of 11.2c and DPS of 8.6c. The stock is among the broker’s least preferred in the REIT space. Target falls to $3.18 from $3.34. Rating downgraded to Underperform from Neutral on valuation.
TECHNOLOGY ONE LIMITED ((TNE)) was downgraded to Sell from Hold by Bell Potter. B/H/S: 1/4/1
Bell Potter downgrades TechnologyOne to Sell from Hold, with a new target price set at $35.75 from $35.50, with no changes to earnings forecasts for the company. The analyst estimates profit before tax growth of 19%, 20%, and 20% for FY25, FY26, and FY27, which is near consensus forecast growth. Bell Potter details that the FY25 estimate assumes 10% profit before tax growth in 2H versus 33% in 1H, and there is upside risk if sales and marketing expenses are not as high as currently anticipated. The current price target equates to a FY26 price-to-earnings ratio of 70 times, with a PEG ratio of around 3.5 times, which in the analyst’s view more than discounts circa 30% profit before tax growth over the next three years.
VICINITY CENTRES ((VCX)) was downgraded to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie. B/H/S: 1/1/3
In a preview of the August earnings season, Macquarie sees limited earnings risk for Australian REITs, with FY25 EPS growth for the sector forecast at 4.3%. For FY26, the broker believes headwinds are reducing and expects EPS growth of 5.8%, with an acceleration to 10.6% growth in FY27. The broker lifted the FY25 EPS forecast for Vicinity Centres by 0.4% and by 1.6% for FY26 on revised economic forecasts and higher re-leasing spreads. Target falls to $2.04 from $2.11. Rating downgraded to Underperform from Neutral on valuation.
Earnings forecast
Listed below are the companies that have had their forecast current year earnings raised or lowered by the brokers last week. The qualification is that the stock must be covered by at least two brokers. The table shows the previous forecast on an earnings per share basis, the new forecast, and the percentage change.
