A lot hinges on the housing industry.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has singled it out as one part of the economy that might expand to fill the gap expected to be left by the mining sector as the investment boom dies down.

So it was encouraging when the Housing Industry Association reported increased in new home sales by the top 100 or so builders in October, November, December and January.

But the trend got a little wrinkle in it in February.

Sales fell five per cent to be only two per cent higher than the average for the preceding 12 months.

The figures are consistent with housing finance data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, which showed falls in the number of home loans approved in each for the four months ending January.

That followed a bout of strength in loan approvals through the middle of 2012.

Interest rate cuts take time to have their effect, so it is too early to say the rate cuts starting in November 2011 and ending – so far – in December last year have failed to gain traction, as economists have taken to saying.

But it does sharpen the focus on the next round of housing finance data – the February figures due on April 15.

There are signs that demand for housing has risen.

An RP Data survey released this week showing housing price gains in the capital cities averaging over one per cent in March and nearly five per cent since the market bottomed last May.

Whether those price rises can be justified by the demand that emerges in coming months remains to be seen.

The downward drift in the number of loans suggests it’s not just the retail sector that’s vulnerable to the cautious mood among householders since the global crisis in 2008, but that the real estate market is in the firing line as well.