Changes to stockbroker ratings in the past week

While the US ‘fiscal cliff’ and a technical recession may have broken the uptrend for global asset markets in November, stockbrokers and investment bankers in Australia continued to zoom in on the fact the global investment community is nevertheless turning increasingly more optimistic on prospects for 2013.

Among the sectors that received special attention last week we find Australian banks, the telecommunications sector (post weak numbers from Optus) and Australian retail stocks.

As far as ratings for individual stocks are concerned, last week proved a relatively quiet week for changes to broker ratings. The eight stockbrokers in the FNArena database upgraded a total of five stocks and downgraded 10, leaving total Buy ratings at 42.23%.

The only stock to receive multiple upgrades was Seven West Media (SWM), for which both Macquarie and Deutsche Bank moved to Buy ratings from Hold previously. The changes come as earnings estimates and price targets were increased after AGM commentary from management indicated cost cutting would help boost earnings in coming years.

Also among the upgrades was Caltex (CTX), for which UBS moved to a Buy rating from Neutral having lifted refining margin estimates for the company. This drove up the broker’s earnings estimates, while the price target was also lifted.

A review of the Australian REIT sector saw Credit Suisse adjust models for stocks under coverage and a beneficiary was Commonwealth Property Office (CPA). The broker expects an attractive dividend yield will help support the share price going forward, enough to justify a rating upgrade to Neutral from Sell.

For Emeco Holdings (EHL), revised earnings guidance meant forecasts and price targets across the market were adjusted lower. For Deutsche Bank, the company now appears well placed to deal with tougher market conditions and this implies value at current levels, generating an upgrade to Buy from Hold.

Credit Suisse reacted differently and downgraded Emeco to Hold from Buy, the broker suggesting earnings are likely to remain under pressure given additional contract expiries are coming up, which is also impacting on earnings visibility.

For ALS (ALQ), formerly known as Campbell Brothers, UBS sees downside risk to earnings given a lot of the core testing business is exposed to the more cyclical resources sector. This implies some further downward pressure in coming periods and sees additional cuts to earnings estimates and price target. UBS has lowered its rating to Sell from Hold

Macquarie’s research suggests the zircon market is likely to remain weak into 2013, which results in changes to volume and price assumptions for Iluka (ILU) and consequently cuts to earnings forecasts. A weak near-term outlook suggests outperformance is unlikely, so the broker downgraded to Sell from Hold.

Following a weak quarterly result and a meeting with management BA Merrill Lynch has cut earnings forecasts for Paladin Energy (PDN), while also slashing its price target for the stock. Uranium prices are still weak and group gearing is high, so BA-ML has moved to a Sell rating from Buy previously.

QBE Insurance (QBE) revised 2012 earnings guidance lower during the week and brokers were quick to react by cutting earnings estimates and price targets. Lower insurance margins and reduced visibility of earnings was a strong enough combination to see UBS downgrade to a Neutral rating from Buy.

While SP Ausnet (SPN) delivered an interim result broadly in line with expectations and maintained full year guidance, for UBS the ongoing nature of bushfire litigation presents an unquantifiable risk. Given this and a share price in line with its target the broker decided to downgrade to Hold from Buy.

Thorn Group (TGA) is likely to experience something of a consolidation year in FY13 in the view of Credit Suisse, the broker adjusting earnings estimates and price target following a review ahead of this week’s interim result release. Catalysts now appear more medium-term in nature, so the broker has downgraded to a Neutral rating from Buy.

Factoring in September traffic stats sees Macquarie adjust its model for Virgin Australia (VAH), the result being a slight cut in price target. The stock is overvalued at current levels in the broker’s view, so the rating has been downgraded to Underperform from Hold.

Updated guidance from Webjet (WEB) fell short of the expectations of Credit Suisse and caused the broker to lower earnings forecasts and price target. Given lower growth estimates the broker has downgraded to a Hold rating from Buy.

Changes to broker models had little impact on price targets over the week, the only change in target of more than 10% being a cut for Ten Network (TEN). Changes to earnings estimates were broader, as while Lynas (LYC) enjoyed a solid increase in earnings forecasts, there were cuts to forecasts of more than 15% for Beadell Resources (BDR), Emeco, QBE Insurance and St Barbara (SBM).

Changes to Earnings Forecasts (EF) in cents per share

Note: FNArena monitors eight leading stockbrokers on a daily basis and the tables below are based on data analysis from the week past concerning these eight equity market experts. The eight experts are: BA-Merrill Lynch, Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan, Macquarie, CIMB (former RBS) and UBS.

Important: This content has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual. It does not constitute formal advice. Consider the appropriateness of the information in regards to your circumstances.