RBA minutes point to rates stability

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There’s no sign that the Reserve Bank is getting ready to cut interest rates but, judging by the minutes of its latest policy meeting, it’s in even less of a hurry to raise them.

The labour market had improved recently, the RBA said on Tuesday in the minutes of its board’s meeting two weeks ago.

That implied less pressure for a cut in the cash rate from its current record low of 2.0 per cent.

“Nevertheless, spare capacity remained, as evidenced by the level of the unemployment rate, historically low wage growth and unit labour costs that had been stable for a number of years,” the RBA said.

As a result the RBA concluded that inflation was well contained and likely to stay that way.

And that implied there’s no need to start thinking about jacking the cash rate up.

Economic growth had picked up in the March quarter, the RBA said, but warned against expecting that to continue.

“Although output growth in the March quarter had been stronger than expected, growth over the year remained below average and early indications were that the strength in the March quarter had not carried through to the June quarter,” the RBA said in the minutes.

And it was the same with other aspects of the economy discussed in the minutes, whether commodity prices, the Australian dollar, the housing market or business investment.

In each case, the negatives were not negative enough to prompt a growth-boosting rate cut, but nor were positives positive enough to suggest a restraining rate hike was in the offing.

The minutes suggest the RBA itself is unclear on whether the next move in interest rates is likely to be up or down.

The picture the RBA paints, of an economy travelling well below its potential pace, suggests any risk for the cash rate in the near term is to the downside.

But it also suggests that risk is small, and that it’s more likely that the cash rate stays where it is for a while yet.