A curveball, X Factor or Black Swan event… call it what you will. The oil price collapse was the shock nobody publicly predicted last year and a no-brainer for “Unexpected Event of 2014”, given its profound effect on financial markets and the global economy.

The tumbling oil price was also a timely reminder that trying to pick financial shocks is a mug’s game. Purists argue that a true X Factor cannot be predicted, so it’s pointless to try. Realists argue that profiting from such events is a struggle for even gifted traders.

A better approach is identifying long-term themes and positioning portfolios to benefit. That is especially important for self-managed superannuation funds (SMSF) with a multi-year or decade focus. Financial shocks, often presented as “left field events”, are usually the culmination of powerful long-term themes that were well-known and underestimated for several years.

Still, it pays to think about curveballs that can disrupt markets and your portfolio – and have a plan to capitalise on buying opportunities that emerge. Patiently buying high-quality companies during big market dips can be an immensely rewarding long-term strategy.

Here are 14 curveballs, positive or negative, that could disrupt the Australian sharemarket and economy in 2015. By definition, these curveballs have a low probability of occurring – a less than one in five chance – but still warrant consideration.

1. A new prime minister

Granted, the odds of leadership change are slim, despite Coalition backbenchers leaking their grumbles about the Government’s performance over the summer, and the Prime Minister’s blunder this week in knighting Prince Phillip. The Federal Government can scarcely afford another poor year after a lacklustre start. If its weak polling continues, watch for leadership speculation to have more credibility in the second half of 2015. Such change, currently unlikely, would further stall regulatory reform and further crunch business and consumer confidence.

2. A cyber-led GFC in 2015

Picture this: a rogue State hacks into the mainframes of the world’s largest stock exchanges, rendering them inoperable. Or a local group hacks into the four biggest banks, shutting down electronic-banking platforms and ATMs nationwide. Fantasy? Media reports say cyber-terrorism threats to Australia are rising rapidly and overseas events – notably Sony being hacked by North Korea sympathisers – show the threat is more dangerous than widely realised.

3. A hard landing in China

Although there are plenty of doomsayers about China, the consensus view for its economy was 7.2% growth in 2014, in line with Government efforts to engineer more sustainable growth. But what if China reports sharply lower-than-expected growth in 2015, amid a rapid slowdown in its property market? In January, Blackstone Advisory Partners’ Byron Wien named a hard landing in China as one of his top 10 potential surprises in 2015. The Government, he surmised, could announce more financial and monetary policy stimulus needed to maintain a 5% growth rate, let alone 7%. If that happened, commodities prices would find new lows, triggering the final washout in Australian resource stocks, and perhaps signalling a buying opportunity in resource stocks for contrarians.

4. Four interest-rate cuts in Australia

Most economists expect one or two interest rate cuts in 2015 as the Reserve Bank responds to a stubbornly high Australian currency and slower economy. But an intensifying global currency war could force its hand; the official cash rate cut to 1.5%, from 2.5%, in four instalments, to lower the Australian dollar. Imagine the effect on property prices, bank term-deposit rates, and popular income stocks. More likely is a 2% cash rate by late 2015, possibly higher, as the easing Australian dollar heads towards US 75 cents, keeping the RBA happy. But further rate cuts cannot be ruled out if the global currency war escalates and the Australian dollar rises.

5. CBA cracks $100

A three-digit share price for the Commonwealth Bank would imply a total 12-month shareholder return (including grossed-up dividends) of about 24% from Australia’s best bank, from its $86 share price. The catalyst? Lower interest rates driving more income investors into high-yield stocks such as the big-four banks, Telstra Corporation and other utilities.

Many strategists believe the bull market in popular yield stocks has run its course, and that the banks are fully valued and face greater regulatory risk. But don’t discount an army of income investors paying even higher prices for reliable, fully-franked dividend yield. Or the effect of a continued bull market in bank stocks on the broader share market. Another huge year for yield stocks would be a curveball for those too quick to take profits.

6. Central banks lose credibility

The Swiss National Bank’s credibility took a hit after its shock move in January to abandon the cap on the franc’s exchange rate. What happens if more central banks surprise global financial markets as they seek to protect their national currency? And what if markets struggle to understand central bank rate intentions, and incorporate them into asset prices? Nobody knows how the great global experiment of quantitative easing – taken to new extremes by the European Central Bank’s massive new bond-buying program – will end. Heaven help us if markets start to lose faith in central banks; that would be the mother of all curveballs in 2015.

7. Gold rallies

After a stunning rally in 2006 to 2011, gold has had fewer friends. The US dollar gold price fell from above US$1,800 an ounce to US$1,294 amid expectations of declining inflation and after a year of lower volatility. But higher financial-market volatility in 2015 could see the yellow metal return to favour as traders buy it for its safe-haven qualities. More likely is gold moving sideways, but it’s one commodity that could surprise on the upside in 2015.

8. Russian roulette

The falling oil price is great news for consumers and terrible news for large energy producers such as Russia. Those with longer memories will recall the Russian debt default of 1998 killing once-feted hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management, and threatening Wall Street banks that traded with LTCM. Could there be a re-run of a Russian debt default sending shivers through global bond markets in 2015? It’s unlikely: Russia’s public debt relative to its GDP is much lower than in 1998 and foreign-exchange reserves are higher. But so much depends on the oil price. If it keeps falling, oil-revenue-dependent Russia will be increasingly vulnerable.

9. The US bull market finds new steam

It is hard to find fund managers who believe US shares are undervalued and that its mighty bull market will continue in 2015. Huge tailwinds for US shares in recent years – quantitative easing, low interest rates and a lower US dollar – have reversed and become headwinds. Many strategists prefer Asian or even European markets over the US in 2015. But what if the US equities market rally advances, driven by the housing recovery and stronger-than-expected productivity gains from technology? That would catch out asset allocators who have reduced US portfolio weightings, and boost our market. It’s arguably one of the better bets on this list.

10. India rises

Hype is growing about India’s potential to overtake China as the star of the BRIC economies, thanks to its new pro-business government, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Although its share market looks fully valued after strong gains, expect more investors to increase portfolio weightings to India as its economic growth quickens. They might be a bit late to the party, but that has never stopped emerging-market booms – and busts – in the past. Another big year for Indian equities, driven more by sentiment than fundamentals, could be a curveball for emerging market asset allocators.

13. The dining boom

For years, commentators have predicted a soft commodities boom as rapid growth in middle-class Asian consumers spurs demand for agriculture. Yet soft commodity prices have mostly disappointed in the past few years: the Betashares Agriculture ETF, which tracks a basket of corn, wheat, sugar and soybean prices (and is hedged for currency exposure), has an annualised loss of almost 6% over three years to December 2014.

Now picture tens of millions of extra middle-class consumers in Asia and a lower oil price eventually boosting South East Asian countries that are heavily into manufacturing. And a lower Australian dollar, and hopefully higher rainfall, boosting Australian agriculture exports. Although some agriculture stocks have already gained, the boom has been tame compared with the potential of feeding billions of Asia’s middle-class consumers in coming decades.

14. Double-digit property price gains

Property commentators mostly expect single-digit residential price gains in Australia and a year of consolidation after the property boom. But two or more interest rate cuts and higher demand from foreign buyers after the Australian dollar falls would inject new strength into the market.

That would further stretch new home buyers, make the banks more vulnerable to a property correction, and intensify pressure on the Government to improve housing affordability. A bigger debate on negative gearing’s role in property-market speculation could feature as part of broader tax reform debate in 2015. My base case is low single-digit gains for property in 2015 – how far can prices rise relative to income? But bigger gains would not surprise if rates stay low, or lower, and unemployment flattens.

• Tony Featherstone is a former managing editor of BRW and Shares magazines.. All prices and analysis at January 28, 2015

Important: This content has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual. It does not constitute formal advice. Consider the appropriateness of the information in regards to your circumstances.

Follow the Switzer Super Report on Twitter