Percentage declines in analysts’ average earnings forecasts materially exceeded rises, while average target price changes were broadly equal. Johns Lyng received the largest percentage decrease in average target price from analysts along with two downgrades from separate brokers to Hold (or equivalent) from Buy.

Conversely, Eagers Automotive headed up the list for positive change to targets and garnered two ratings downgrades on valuation, as well as two upgrades partly due to a stronger margin outlook. Providing a measure of confirmation, EVT Ltd and oOh!media appear in both the positive change to target and earnings tables.

However, oOh!media, along with MA Financial, Codan, and Tabcorp all registered material increases in average target prices, yet their overall results and outlook were adjudged to be ‘in line’ in the commentary section of the Monitor. Similarly, upticks in average FY25 earnings forecasts for Nickel Industries, 29Metals, Ampol (two ratings upgrades), and Gold Road Resources were insufficient to earn a ‘beat’, while falls in average earnings forecasts still allowed for in-line outcomes for Healius and Pilbara Resources and beats for Stanmore Resources and Karoon Energy. Both Iress and Reece missed expectations when reporting respective final and interim results, yet each company received two ratings upgrades apiece from analysts, following a material decrease in targets. On the flipside, Domain Holdings Australia received two ratings downgrades as brokers raised their targets to $4.20 to align with Nasdaq-listed CoStar Group’s offer to acquire 100% of the company, having already built a 16.9% stake. Ord Minnett felt CoStar’s entrance could reshape the Australian property advertising market, though Nine Entertainment (Domain’s majority owner) is expected to reject the initial bid, potentially leading to a higher offer. Citi agreed, suggesting the bid price may need to increase, particularly as Domain’s first-half results were positive, and the bid reflects a -15% discount to Real Estate portal peers. Even if successful, this broker believes it will be difficult for CoStar to break the network effects of REA Group, given REA’s ability to flex its cost base and increase marketing spend.

 In the good books: upgrades

AUSSIE BROADBAND LIMITED ((ABB)) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral by UBS. B/H/S: 4/0/0

UBS upgrades Aussie Broadband to Buy from Neutral with a higher $4.80 target from $3.95, supported by an expected 26% three-year cash compound growth rate in EPS. The analyst points to 1H25 EBITDA of $66m, up 13% year-on-year, or 22% excluding Buddy losses with double-digit subscriber growth of 12.5%, supporting continued market share gains. A fully franked 2.4 cent special dividend was declared, alongside an acceleration in capex growth, with FY25 capex guidance raised to -$75$80m from -$55$60m. UBS highlights the balance sheet remains strong with leverage at 0.3x. Management upgraded FY25 EBITDA guidance to $133138m from $125$135m, driven by residential subscriber growth, improving margins, and a stronger contribution from Symbio.

AMPLITUDE ENERGY LIMITED ((AEL)) was upgraded to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter. B/H/S: 3/1/0

Amplitude Energy reported 1H25 underlying earnings of $93m, ahead of Bell Potter’s $85m estimate. The company is negotiating terms with OG Energy regarding participation in the three-well East Coast Supply Project program.

The ECSP drill program and its capital costs are yet to be guided, and the development assumes exploration success.

However, the targets are considered low risk prospects, Amplitude’s balance sheet is increasingly supportive, and JV alignment is becoming clearer, the broker notes.

Bell Potter has upgraded to Buy from Hold in recognition of de-risking the ECSP’s value over the next 12 months. Target rises to 26c from 22c.

AMPOL LIMITED ((ALD)) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie and to Buy from Neutral by UBS. B/H/S: 3/1/0

Ampol’s second-half earnings (EBITDA) of $1,199m declined -32% year-on-year, with refining earnings (EBIT) at -$42m due to weaker margins, explains Macquarie.

Convenience Retail EBIT remained stable at $357m, supported by strong premium fuel penetration despite lower base-grade sales, observes the analyst.

Management re-affirmed guidance, with 2025 capital expenditure expected at -$600m and de-gearing anticipated in the second half as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuels project costs stabilise.

Macquarie lowers its target price to $29.45 from $30.65. Despite the weak 2024 result, the broker upgrades the rating to Outperform from Neutral, citing improving refining margins and strong retail execution.

UBS upgrades Ampol to Buy from Neutral, expecting EBIT growth across all divisions over the next two years.

The stock trades at 8.3x 2026 EBIT, a -19% discount to its five-year average. UBS forecasts 22% EBIT CAGR from 202426, driven by refining recovery, improved Lytton reliability, and consumer sentiment uplift.

2024 NPAT was in line, but net debt/EBITDA spiked to 2.6x. The final dividend payout was cut to 66% of NPAT to maintain balance sheet flexibility. UBS expects leverage to normalise within target by 202526, enabling higher payouts.

The analyst notes Convenience Retail remains resilient, benefiting from investment in premium sites and food offerings.

UBS cuts 202526 EPS estimates by -1% to -6% due to higher interest costs and weaker Z Energy & Fuels & Infrastructure trading. Target rises to $31.40 from $31.25.

APA GROUP ((APA)) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell by UBS. B/H/S: 2/3/0

UBS upgrades APA Group to Neutral from Sell with a higher target price of $7 from $6.60.

The group’s 1H25 underlying EBITDA of $1,015m was in line with consensus. Corporate cost growth slowed to 2.5% from the previously guided 10%, though higher interest expenses and lower Basslink earnings pose risks to FY26 earnings growth, the analyst proposes.

Management confirmed there is no need for immediate equity raise, opting instead to recycle assets and seek funding partners. UBS points to a potential funding gap of -$1.93.3bn for the pipeline operator’s WA transmission corridors, which may require equity issuance.

The analyst lifts FY2627 EPS estimates rise by 56% on lower corporate costs and additional earnings from organic growth.

EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED ((APE)) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell by Citi and to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie. B/H/S: 4/3/0

Citi upgrades to Neutral from Sell and raises the target price to $14.25 from $9.50.

Eagers Automotive reported 2024 PBT of $371m, down -15%, with a 3.3% margin, slightly ahead of Citi’s 3.2% estimate but in line with consensus, the analyst observes.

The broker points to cost control and inventory management as key strengths, with PBT margins expected to stabilise in 1H 2025 before expanding in 2026

Management forecasts $1bn in turnover growth for 2025, with around $400m from BYD expansion. Citi remains cautious, expecting a lower $350m uplift due to slowing EV demand.

The analyst upgrades FY25/26 PBT forecasts by 13-20%, reflecting revenue guidance and a stronger margin outlook.

Macquarie raised the target price to $16.39 from $10.50 and lifted the rating to Outperform from Neutral.

While FY24 underlying profit was a slight beat to consensus, the broker notes margin of 3.3% was 210bps above the sector average of 1.2%. The company provided FY25 revenue guidance of over $1bn and the broker believes there’s upside risk, given potential for acquisitions or greenfields.

The analyst raised FY25-26 EPS forecasts by 12% and 7% respectively to reflect a 5% increase to revenue and 20% increase in gross profit margin.

See also APE downgrade.

ACCENT GROUP LIMITED ((AX1)) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral by Citi. B/H/S: 4/1/0

Citi raises its target for Accent Group to $2.57 from $2.43 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral following a further review of 1H results.

A summary of the broker’s earlier research follows.

Citi’s first take on today’s Accent Group 1H results and management’s later conference call is of in-line pre-reported financials and a pleasing pick-up in sales over the last seven weeks. Management’s trading update showed the core Platypus brand is back in growth, though somewhat helped by refurbishments, according to the analysts. At the end of the half, the total store network finished at 903 stores, ahead of the consensus estimate of 896. New Zealand, which the broker notes accounts for 10% of the business, remains challenging and there are no green shoots as yet. The 2H will likely benefit from the annualisation of cost-of-doing-business (CODB) reductions and distribution efficiencies, highlights the broker. See also AX1 downgrade.

BAPCOR LIMITED ((BAP)) was upgraded to Add from Hold by Morgans. B/H/S: 2/2/0

Morgans observes Bapcor is making progress with its business simplification and efficiency program, with improving sequential EBITDA margin outcomes within trade business (+125bps) and specialist wholesale (+310bps).  Sales were flat in 1H and net profit fell -15% y/y but the latter was still marginally ahead of the broker’s forecast. The broker notes improved cash flow outcome with operating cash flow of $143.7m versus $89m the year before. Free cash flow of $46.7m (-$36.7 year before) was even stronger considering the inventory build in 1H. The analyst expects the company’s optimisation efforts to see ongoing margins improving with the specialist wholesale and trade businesses, while retail and NZ businesses see flat sales growth. Target price rises to $5.95 from $5.25, and rating upgraded to Add from Hold.

BENDIGO & ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED ((BEN)) was upgraded to Hold from Lighten by Ord Minnett. B/H/S: 0/2/3

Ord Minnett upgrades Bendigo & Adelaide Bank to Hold from Lighten due to the valuation, post the stock’s fall of some -22% since 1H25 results on February 17. No change to target price at $10.50. The broker notes weak earnings were driven by higher operational and funding costs as the bank struggled with stronger-than-expected lending volume growth. Steps have been taken to stabilise margins, including more rational loan and deposit pricing and additional staffing. Bendigo’s restructuring, which reduced brands to four from 13 and IT platforms from three to eight, has been costly, with the cost-to-income ratio at 62%, well above the major banks. However, the investment was necessary for competitiveness, the analyst states. Ord Minnett maintains a cautious view on sector earnings and valuations but sees this regional lender as fairly valued at current levels. A strategy update later this year will be key for assessing its long-term positioning.

CHALICE MINING LIMITED ((CHN)) was upgraded to Speculative Buy from Hold by Morgans. B/H/S: 2/1/0

Morgans has changed the analyst for Chalice Mining, who cut the target price to $2.80 from $3.45, and upgraded the rating to Speculative Buy from Hold. The broker notes new metallurgical tests confirmed Gonneville material can produce two types of smelter-grade concentrates: a Cu-PGE-Au concentrate and a Ni-Co-Pd-Pt-Au concentrate. The result increased the broker’s confidence in Gonneville’s viability and is expected to increase its appeal to potential funding and development partners. The broker updated its valuation to exclude the 30mtpa scenario outlined in the scoping study and has opted for a phased operation scaling 15mtpa from 5mtpa.

GUZMAN Y GOMEZ LIMITED ((GYG)) was upgraded to Add from Hold by Morgans. B/H/S: 2/2/0

Morgans assesses strong first half execution and growth at Guzman y Gomez, with network sales up by 22.8% to $577.9m, slightly ahead of expectations. Comparable sales growth accelerated to 10.2% in Q2 from 8.7% in Q1, though margins were weaker-than-anticipated by the broker due to increased costs and expansion investments. Store openings were strong, highlight the analysts, with 16 new locations in Australia and three in Singapore, while the company remains on track to meet its FY25 target of 31 store openings. Morgans downgrades FY25 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by -5.2% due to higher general and administrative expenses and lower corporate store margins but makes minimal changes to FY26 and FY27 forecasts. Morgans raises the target price to $42.50 from $41.40 and upgrades to an Add rating following recent share price weakness.

HMC CAPITAL LIMITED ((HMC)) was upgraded to Add from Hold by Morgans. B/H/S: 3/2/0

Morgans raises its target for HMC Capital to $10.50 from $8.20 and upgrades to Add from Hold. HMC delivered record revenue in 1H25, significantly exceeding consensus expectations, driven by a surge in transaction fees and investment uplifts from HMC Capital Partners, explains the broker. Annualised net profit before tax of 80c per share outpaced the prior run rate of 70c, positioning the company well for FY25. The broker questions the appropriate valuation multiple for performance and transaction fees versus recurring management fees but sees strong fundamentals supporting growth.

HARMONEY CORP LIMITED ((HMY)) was upgraded to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett. B/H/S: 1/0/0

Harmoney Corp beat Ord Minnett’s expectations with its first half result, amid strong operating leverage, improved customer acquisition metrics and conversion of earnings to cash flow. The broker highlights surplus capacity in warehouse funding lines and corporate debt facilities to enable growth in the loan book into the second half. Ord Minnett assesses the company can “sweat” a technology advantage and grow profits at a faster rate than the broader sector, upgrading to Buy from Accumulate. Target rises to $0.92 from $0.74.

IRESS LIMITED ((IRE)) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie and to Buy, High Risk from Hold, High Risk by Shaw and Partners. B/H/S: 4/0/0

The 2024 results from Iress were slightly ahead of Macquarie’s estimates. The broker comments the transformation of the business has significantly improved the balance sheet and the dividend has been reinstated. A final $0.10 was declared. 2025 guidance for adjusted EBITDA is $127-135m. As the transformation of the business continues over the next 12-24 months, Macquarie finds the valuation attractive and upgrades to Outperform from Neutral. The target is reduced to $8.42 from $10.25, reflecting EBITDA changes, increased capital expenditure and DCF roll forward. Iress’ FY24 earnings (EBITDA) exceeded Shaw and Partners’ expectations, with FY25 guidance of $127m-$135m reflecting 9% growth at the midpoint. Management sees multiple revenue drivers, including digital advice and cost synergies, with FY26 earnings expected to rise by 10% as transition service agreement (TSA) costs roll off. The analysts highlight the company is trading at 13x FY26 cash earnings, at the lower end of its historical range, making it attractive to potential private equity buyers. Shaw lowers the target price to $9.10 from $9.60 due to near-term earnings forecast downgrades, partially offset by asset sales, and upgrades the rating to Buy, High Risk from Hold, High Risk

JUMBO INTERACTIVE LIMITED ((JIN)) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie. B/H/S: 4/2/0

Jumbo Interactive’s first half underlying net profit of $17.3m was down -13% and below Macquarie’s estimates. Lottery volumes are expected to recover as will market share. The broker points out from time to time earnings volatility via jackpots characterises the stock, with more than 80% of earnings linked to Australian lotteries. FY25 appears to be a tough year while the set up for FY26 is encouraging. Given an attractive valuation and 5% dividend yield, Macquarie upgrades to Outperform from Neutral. Target is raised to $14.80 from $14.40. See also JIN downgrade.

LATITUDE GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED ((LFS)) was upgraded to Equal weight from Underweight by Morgan Stanley. B/H/S: 0/2/0

Morgan Stanley upgrades Latitude Group to Equal weight from Underweight, assessing good progress has been made on its initiatives and the operating environment is supportive for margins and volumes. There are emerging signs of operating leverage, and the company has resumed its dividend. The broker is mindful of the risk of increased competition and the relatively higher credit risk profile and believes management will need to build a track record of solid results in order to rebuild investor confidence and drive a re-rating. Target is raised to $1.30 from $0.95. Industry view: In-Line.

MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED ((MIN)) was upgraded to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett. B/H/S: 3/3/1

First half earnings from Mineral Resources were ahead of expectations as mining services outperformed other divisions. Ord Minnett was disappointed with plans to spend an additional -$400m to rectify problems at Onslow iron ore. This includes re-laying the entire haulage road to the port in asphalt to cope with heavy loads after recent outages along the route. There is also a three-month delay in getting Onslow to nameplate with a -$230m negative impact on cash flow. The broker considers the sell-off in the stock overdone as it discounts the projects performance to a level “unreasonably below company guidance”. Ord Minnett upgrades to Buy from Accumulate and reduces the target to $35 from $42.

NATIONAL STORAGE REIT ((NSR)) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie. B/H/S: 3/2/1

National Storage REIT’s 1H25 underlying earnings were up 2% year on year and -1% below Macquarie’s estimate. FY25 guidance implies at least 7% growth in 2H25 on 1H25. As per the commentary, 2H25 earnings growth will come from a combination of rent growth from the stabilised portfolio enhanced by improved occupancy and revenue per average sqm from growth assets. National Storage has an additional 200,000sqm under construction or has DA obtained and is planned for delivery over the next 24 months, the broker notes. The REIT offers a 5.2% yield and a 6.2% three-year CAGR with underlying rental growth enhanced by accretive developments and acquisitions, Macquarie points out. Was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral. Target rises to $2.42 from $2.40.

PEOPLEIN LIMITED ((PPE)) was upgraded to Add from Hold by Morgans. B/H/S: 2/0/0

PeopleIN’s 1H25 result was better than expected given the company flagged challenging conditions, and Morgans believes it is a reflection of a stabilising business. The broker thinks the EBITDA margin of 3.5% in 1H was a cyclical low and sees the potential of a rise to 4.5% through the cycle. The company is renewing its focus on underlying EBITDA and EPS growth, and the broker expects any growth in billing rates will be mostly offset by -8% fewer billable days in 2H vs 1H. This has led to an increase in the analyst’s EBITA forecast for FY25 by 5% and by 3% in FY26. Rating upgraded to Add from Hold, and target price rises to $1.40 from $0.75.

REECE LIMITED ((REH)) was upgraded to Hold from Reduce by Morgans and to Hold from Lighten by Ord Minnett. B/H/S: 0/4/2

Morgans highlights Reece’s 1H25 EBIT of $305m was at the lower end of management guidance of $300-320m, and -3% below its forecast, reflecting challenging trading conditions in Australia/NZ and the US. Both volume and margin were lower in the two regions, with the company also losing market share in the US. The company expects housing conditions to remain soft in both regions and fewer trading days in 2H on Easter and Anzac Day timings to potentially affect Australia/NZ activity. The broker cut FY25-27 EBITDA forecast by -2-3%, with downgrades to Australia/NZ estimates partly offsetting upgrades to US forecasts. Target price cut to $18.7 from $19.95, and rating upgraded to Hold from Reduce. Ord Minnett upgrades to Hold from Lighten with a lower target price of $20.40, down from $23.20. The near-term outlook remains challenging, with weak housing activity weighing on earnings. Ord Minnett lowers FY25/FY26 earnings by -11% and -15%, respectively.

SERVICE STREAM LIMITED ((SSM)) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie. B/H/S: 2/1/0

Service Stream delivered earnings in the first half that beat Macquarie’s estimates. New contracts worth $1.1bn have been secured while 94% of existing contracts have been renewed. The broker considers this a quality result amid a strong performance in the key telco and utilities segments. Cash generation was also a highlight with the company now more than $50m net cash. Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral, and the target is lifted to $1.86 from $1.41.

SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED ((SUL)) was upgraded to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett. B/H/S: 3/2/1

Ord Minnett upgrades Super Retail to Buy from Hold on the back of the decline in the stock of -12% post 1H25 result. The broker believes the company offers better value than retail peers at this stage. The company announced 1H25 results which came in lower than anticipated, with Supercheap Auto representing 54% of earnings and 37% of sales being impacted by pressure on sales and margins. The analyst believes Supercheap will be challenged to regain lost share, judging by the 2H25 trading update. In contrast, Rebel sales rose 5% due to new footwear and Garmin products. Ord Minnett lowers EPS estimates by -8% and -6% for FY25 and FY26. Target price is cut to $16 from $16.50.

TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED ((TAH)) was upgraded to Add from Hold by Morgans. B/H/S: 2/3/0

Tabcorp Holdings’ 1H25 result slightly beat expectations, but Morgans considers it as the most encouraging update for some time, crediting it to CEO Gill McLachlan’s appointment. The company didn’t provide a formal trading update but noted a stable macro environment and positive competitive positioning. The company increased the target for reduction in FY25 operating expenses to $30m from $20m. The company also lowered capex guidance to $100-120m, around -$25m below prior midpoint guidance, with the broker’s forecast at $116m. The broker raised FY25 net profit and EPS forecasts by 8% and 12% respectively. Target price rises to 75c from 60c, and rating upgraded to Add from Hold.

TELIX PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED ((TLX)) was upgraded to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter. B/H/S: 2/0/0

Bell Potter upgrades Telix Pharmaceuticals to Buy from Hold with a higher target price of $36 from $21.60. The company pre-released its 2024 revenue, with earnings (EBITDA) of $99.3m coming in below consensus estimates by -14%, which the analyst notes the market turned a blind eye to in favour of the outlook. The broker explains the upgraded outlook on the back of the RLS Radiopharm acquisition, which is expected to generate revenues of $222m, and Illuccix revenue is estimated to increase 24% to around $1bn. R&D is also expected to rise due to acquisitions. Management revenue guidance stands at $1.1bn to $1.23bn for 2025, and the company will start reporting in USD in 1H25.

WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED ((WDS)) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell by Citi. B/H/S: 1/5/0

Citi upgrades Woodside Energy to Neutral from Sell and lifts the target price to $24 from $22. The broker highlights the company, which sits in the ASX10 stocks, is largely underweight for Australian fund managers, suggesting if management succeeds in selling down 50% of the Louisiana LNG, then it might become what the analyst calls “the pain trade.” Citi stresses the stock is not a Buy, and the analyst prefers Santos ((STO)), but Woodside Energy now has an upside Short Term view.

WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED ((WOW)) was upgraded to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett. B/H/S: 2/5/0

Ord Minnett notes Woolworths Group’s 1H25 earnings fell short of market expectations due to a greater-than-anticipated impact from industrial action at its distribution centres. Group gross margin narrowed, affected by price reinvestment, increased promotions, and high clearance sales in Big W. Guidance was weak, with management forecasting a second-half earnings decline in the core food business despite solid early sales growth. However, the company announced a -$400m cost-cutting plan, which the broker views positively. The analyst lifts EPS forecasts by 4% for FY26 and FY27 due to expected cost savings, though FY25 estimates are lowered by -1%. The broker upgrades to Buy from Hold, lifting the price target to $36.00 from $32.00.

WISETECH GLOBAL LIMITED ((WTC)) was upgraded to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett. B/H/S: 7/0/0

Ord Minnett notes WiseTech Global’s 1H25 earnings exceeded market expectations, supported by new freight forwarder customers. The company reiterated FY25 guidance, forecasting revenue growth at the low end of its 1626% range due to delays in new product rollouts. The return of founder and major shareholder Richard White as executive chairman follows board resignations over governance concerns. Management states there has been minimal customer push back on these changes. The broker sees growth potential in WiseTech’s CargoWise platform, expecting a 28% compound growth rate in revenue from FY24 to FY27. Ord Minnett’s EPS estimates are lowered by -2% for FY25 and -8% for FY2627. Target price is cut to $124.00 from $132.00, but the rating is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate on valuation grounds.

 In the bad books: downgrades

ADRAD HOLDINGS LIMITED ((AHL)) was downgraded to Speculative Buy from Add by Morgans. B/H/S: 2/0/0

Morgans notes Adrad’s 1H25 result was weaker than expected, with both revenue and EBITDA missing its forecast. EBITDA margin was down -290bps to 10.5% but cash conversion was strong at 123% vs 105% the year before. Overall, earnings for both divisions were lower despite higher revenue. The company expects revenue growth in 2H but no longer provided guidance for earnings growth. The broker is forecasting FY25 revenue growth of 7% to $152.8m but -5% EBITDA decline to $17.2m. Target price cut to $0.85 from $1.10. The broker believes earnings may be volatile in the short term and therefore has downgraded to Speculative Buy from Add for more risk-tolerant investors.

EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED ((APE)) was downgraded to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett and to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter. B/H/S: 4/3/0

Ord Minnett notes Eagers Automotive’s FY24 result was strong with profit before tax and margins beating its forecast. The company guided to a $1.0bn revenue growth in FY25, citing strong demand from BYD and other key brands. The company expects margins to benefit from greater earnings contributions from BYD, Easyauto123 and recent acquisitions. The broker pushed up profit before tax forecasts by 17-18% over FY-27. Target price rises to $15.0 from $12.80. Rating downgraded to Accumulate from Buy on valuation grounds. Bell Potter found the Eagers Automotive 2024 underlying operating profit below forecasts while revenue beat estimates. Final dividend of $0.50 was a positive surprise and ahead of forecasts.

The company has indicated it expects sustainable net margins and further improvement. The broker calculates, if margins are sustainable or flat in 2025, then on implied revenue of $12.2bn this suggests underlying operating pre-tax profit of around $400m. Estimates are upgraded for revenue forecasts in 2025 and 2026 by 2%. The target increases to $15.25 from $13.65 and, as this is only a modest premium to the share price, the rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy. See also APE upgrade.

AUSTAL LIMITED ((ASB)) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy by Citi. B/H/S: 1/2/0

After further analysis of Austal’s 1H results, Citi raises its target to $4.30 from $4.14 and downgrades to Neutral from Buy due to a strong recent share price performance and rising execution risk for new programs. FNArena’s summary of the broker’s original research follows. In an early assessment of today’s interim financials by Austal, Citi notes a better-than-expected outcome, as well as upgraded FY25 guidance. First half profit of $25.1m came in ahead of the $22.6m consensus estimate driven by US support margins. The EBIT margin was 7.9% (Citi 5.5%), with support margins at 19.7% (Citi 10%) underpinned by invoice finalisation for FY23 support work. As expected by Citi, no dividend was declared given the upcoming significant capex program.

ACCENT GROUP LIMITED ((AX1)) was downgraded to Hold from Add by Morgans. B/H/S: 4/1/0

Morgans reports Accent Group’s 1H25 earnings were in line with guidance, with earnings (EBIT) rising 11.6% to $80.7m, assisted by the reversal of a historical impairment. Gross margins declined by -100bps to 55.6% due to a highly promotional environment, though cost control helped offset pressures, explains the broker. The company opened 42 new stores and closed 34, with management guiding to at least ten additional openings in 2H25. The interim dividend of 5.5c fell short of Morgans’ expectations due to a lower payout ratio. The broker lowers its target price to $2.20 from $2.40 and downgrades its rating to Hold from Add due to ongoing uncertainty in the trading environment, increased pressure on margins in the short-term, and slower rollout estimates. See also AX1 upgrade.

COLES GROUP LIMITED ((COL)) was downgraded to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter. B/H/S: 4/3/0

First half underlying net profit from Coles Group was slightly ahead of Bell Potter’s expectations. Underlying results, where net profit was up 1%, included $92m in supply chain implementation and duplication costs while an estimated $20m in EBIT was gained from industrial action in Victoria affecting Woolworths Group ((WOW)). Bell Potter downgrades to Hold from Buy to reflect the recent share price movement, noting the ACCC is likely to release its final report into supermarkets shortly. Coles is favoured over competitor Woolworths, given what the broker perceives is better execution against profit growth in a difficult retail environment. Target rises to $21.15 from $20.50.

CATALYST METALS LIMITED ((CYL)) was downgraded to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter. B/H/S: 1/1/0

Catalyst Metals posted first half results where underlying EBITDA and net profit were slightly below Bell Potter’s estimates. FY25 guidance is for 105-120,000 ounces at AISC of $2300-2500/oz. The broker downgrades to Hold from Buy on valuation grounds, noting a 30% appreciation in the share price in three months. The valuation is based on a long-term gold price of $3500/oz. Target is unchanged at $4.45.

DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED ((DHG)) was downgraded to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett and to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter. B/H/S: 0/5/1

Domain Holdings Australia’s 1H25 earnings beat consensus, supported by tight cost control according to Ord Minnett. The broker notes board member Greg Ellis has been appointed interim CEO following Jason Pellegrino’s retirement. US-based CoStar has launched a $4.20 per share bid, which could reshape the Australian property advertising market. Nine Entertainment ((NEC)), Domain’s majority owner, is expected to reject the initial bid but may consider a higher offer. Ord Minnett raises its FY25 EPS forecast by 20% and by 15% for FY26/27, reflecting stronger TV division revenue. Price target lifts to $4.20 from $3.25, aligning with CoStar’s bid, though the rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy due to valuation. Bell Potter raises its target to $4.20 from $3.30 and downgrades to Hold from Buy, citing valuation considerations and limited near-term catalysts.

GENESIS MINERALS LIMITED ((GMD)) was downgraded to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter. B/H/S: 4/2/0

Bell Potter downgrades Genesis Minerals to Hold from Buy due to the valuation and the 40% rise in the share price over the last three months. Target price is retained at $3.35. The miner announced 1H25 gold production of 93koz, up 34% on the previous year, with all-in-sustaining-costs of $3,383 per ounce. The analyst continues to like Genesis, citing its 15moz mineral resource portfolio in WA, and notes that processing at the second plant will enable higher gold production, increasing to 325koz in FY29 from around 190koz in FY25.

GOLD ROAD RESOURCES LIMITED ((GOR)) was downgraded to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett. B/H/S: 2/1/0

Gold Road’s FY24 underlying net profit was -6% lower than Ord Minnett’s forecast due mainly to higher D&A. The broker notes the share price has risen 50% since November but it doesn’t see justification for it to outperform peers (valuation 1.2x Price/Net Asset Value vs 1x peers). The rating is therefore downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target price is $2.5.

INGHAMS GROUP LIMITED ((ING)) was downgraded to Hold from Add by Morgans. B/H/S: 1/3/0

As expected by Morgans, Inghams Group reported a weak 1H, in line with expectations, as it cycled a record prior period. The broker highlights cost-of-living pressures affecting out-of-home consumption, though FY25 guidance was reaffirmed, implying earnings growth in H2. Uncertainty remains over FY26 earnings as the Woolworth Group ((WOW)) contract has not been fully replaced, though Morgans acknowledges management has made progress. With limited near-term catalysts and less than 10% upside to the new target of $3.58, down from $3.66, the broker sees the stock lacking momentum. The rating is downgraded to Hold from Add.

JUMBO INTERACTIVE LIMITED ((JIN)) was downgraded to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter. B/H/S: 4/2/0

Bell Potter downgrades Jumbo Interactive to Hold from Buy and lowers the target price to $13.20 from $16.50 on the back of 1H25 results, with revenue and earnings coming in below expectations by -6% and -4%, respectively, from softer Lottery retailing. The broker points to a fall in Powerball of -19% and Oz Lotto total jackpots fell -15%. Digital share also missed expectations. Bell Potter congratulates the company on winning back market share via marketing but explains that more strategic evidence is needed to have a higher degree of confidence in how share will be retained. Hold. Target $13.20. See also JIN upgrade.

JOHNS LYNG GROUP LIMITED ((JLG)) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie and to Hold from Add by Morgans. B/H/S: 1/4/0

Macquarie lowers its target for Johns Lyng to $2.60 from $4.90 on reduced earnings forecasts and a lower assumed multiple and downgrades to Neutral from Outperform, citing execution risks and a softer near-term outlook. First half revenue of $573m missed the broker’s estimates by -11% (and consensus by -7%), with earnings (EBITDA) missing the broker’s estimate by -15% due to a weaker performance in NSW and the US.

FY25 guidance was lowered, with revenue reduced by -5% and earnings by -4.5%, though management is implementing cost-cutting measures, including a reduction of 120 full-time employees, explains the broker. The US segment saw a -13.6% revenue decline due to project delays and weak job volumes from key contracts, while NSW remains six months behind recovery expectations. Morgans observes Johns Lyng’s 1H25 result was weaker than expected, with group revenue missing its forecast by -6% and EBITDA coming -18% below. Interim dividend of 2.5c was lower than the broker’s 4.2c forecast. The company cut FY25 EBITDA guidance by -5% which implies 2H recovery in business as usual (BAU) EBITDA. Based on the company’s update, the broker expects improved revenue momentum from recent surge events in NSW and Queensland.  In the US, volumes are expected to increase with a new client onboarding and work related to LA wildfires, but it is still expected to fall short of the company’s FY25 target of 10-15% revenue growth. The analyst cut FY25 and FY26 EBITDA forecasts by -8% and -6% respectively, resulting in target price decline to $2.7 from $5.1. Rating downgraded to Hold from Add.

KOGAN.COM LIMITED ((KGN)) was downgraded to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett. B/H/S: 0/3/1

On the back of 1H25 results from Kogan.com which met expectations, Ord Minnett highlights January sales growth of 25% year-on-year was ahead of expectations but in line with recent trends. The broker notes 1H25 results were as pre-guided, though 2H25 earnings are expected to fall short due to higher marketing spend. Increased promotional spending raises concerns about long-term customer retention, with Kogan First’s impact unclear as membership numbers are no longer disclosed. Ord Minnett cuts FY25FY27 EPS forecasts by -28%, -14%, and -11%, respectively, reflecting elevated marketing costs. The price target is lowered to $5.00 from $5.55, with the rating downgraded to Hold from Accumulate.

KELSIAN GROUP LIMITED ((KLS)) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie. B/H/S: 2/1/0

Kelsian Group delivered first half net profit that was down -8% and missed Macquarie’s estimates. FY25 underlying EBITDA guidance has been reaffirmed at $283-295m, with a skew of 54% to the second half at the midpoint. While this shows management’s confidence in the second half, the broker notes gearing at 3.2x remains a constraint. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform and the target lowered to $3.20 from $4.80.

LINDSAY AUSTRALIA LIMITED ((LAU)) was downgraded to Hold from Add by Morgans. B/H/S: 2/1/0

Morgans notes Lindsay Australia’s 1H25 result was weaker than expected, with underlying EBITDA missing its forecast by -7% largely due to a -115bps sequential fall in EBITDA margin in the transport business. Rural sales improved under difficult conditions, with cost and inventory management assisting a 13.3% increase in EBITDA to $4.8m. The company didn’t provide formal guidance for FY25 but expects ongoing challenges from industry capacity expansion, subdued demand, pricing pressures, and weather disruptions. The broker has downgraded FY25-27 underlying EBITDA forecast by -15%, mainly on a downgrade in the transport division forecasts. Target price cut to $0.80 from $1.15, and rating downgraded to Hold from Add.

NINE ENTERTAINMENT CO. HOLDINGS LIMITED ((NEC)) was downgraded to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett. B/H/S: 2/1/0

Ord Minnett highlights Nine Entertainment’s 1H25 earnings exceeded expectations, with the company guiding for mid-to-high single-digit TV advertising revenue growth in the March quarter. The broker notes cost guidance for the TV division was upgraded to flat from slightly up. Nine is evaluating the $4.20 per share takeover bid for Domain Holdings Australia ((DHG)) by CoStar, considering its impact on the group’s strategy. Management is expected to reject the initial offer but may entertain a higher bid the analyst states. Ord Minnett raises FY25 EPS forecasts by 20% and by 15% for FY26/27, reflecting a stronger revenue outlook. Target increases to $1.80 from $1.60, with the rating downgraded to Accumulate from Buy.

NIB HOLDINGS LIMITED ((NHF)) was downgraded to Hold from Add by Morgans. B/H/S: 1/4/1

NIB Holdings’ 1H25 net profit was in line with consensus but underlying operating profit was 8% higher, notes Morgans.  The broker notes Australia Residents Health Insurance margin stabilised at the top of management’s 5-7% guidance at 6.7%, following a decline in 2H24. The company expects 2H margin to also come at the top end of the range.  NZ result was weak but in line with expectations, with the company expecting 2H to benefit from price increases of 20% and less working days. Overall though, the broker believes its near-term forecasts were too optimistic in certain areas and pared it down after management commentary. Target price, however, rises to $7.06 from $6.10 as the broker applied a 15.5x valuation multiple vs 13x on stabilisation of claims spikes. Rating downgraded to Hold from Add.

PACIFIC CURRENT GROUP LIMITED ((PAC)) was downgraded to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett. B/H/S: 0/1/0

Pacific Current Group’s 1H25 earnings were slightly ahead of expectations, supported by significant cost savings, Ord Minnett notes. The broker explains management fees fell -62.1% year-on-year due to asset sales, while corporate revenue rose on higher interest income. The company declared an unfranked 15cps dividend, above the 10.8cps forecast. Ord Minnett revises earnings, raising FY25 by 26% but lowering FY2627 by -4% to -6%.  Target price stays at $13.00, with the rating downgraded to Hold from Buy due to recent share price strength.

QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED ((QUB)) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy by UBS. B/H/S: 2/2/0

UBS analysts have downgraded their rating for Qube Holdings to Neutral from Buy, raising the price target to $4.40 from $4.15. FY25-27 EPS estimates lift by 4-5% due to stronger contributions from Patrick and lower interest costs. The company reported 1H25 NPATA/EPSA 3% above UBS estimates, with logistics margins slightly below expectations but offset by Patrick’s outperformance. Management re-affirmed FY25 guidance for at least 5% NPATA growth, while asset sales are expected to provide $500m in funding capacity. UBS sees Qube as a high-quality portfolio but notes limited upside following strong share price performance.

READYTECH HOLDINGS LIMITED ((RDY)) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie. B/H/S: 3/1/0

ReadyTech Holdings’ 1H25 result was softer than Macquarie expected, impacted by delays to enterprise contracts. The company expects better momentum in 2H25 building into FY26. ReadyTech has a pipeline of $37.5m, including $13.5m deal value of conviction opportunities at shortlisted/preferred stage with a close date in 2H25. Further delays to the enterprise pipeline are impacting the earnings outlook with segment margins also softer than forecast, the broker notes. Macquarie states delivering consistent and improved revenue and earnings growth will be key for a re-rate. Enterprise wins remain a catalyst. Target falls to $3.15 from $3.80. Was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.

RAMELIUS RESOURCES LIMITED ((RMS)) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie. B/H/S: 2/1/0

Ramelius Resources delivered a first half result that beat estimates. Macquarie was also surprised by the fully franked maiden interim dividend of three cents. The broker was unimpressed with the fact that, while the company reduced its hedge book by -37% during the half year, it still held forward gold sale contracts totalling 98,500 ounces at an average price of AUD3183, implying a discount to spot gold of -45% in US dollar terms. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform after a 27% lift in the share price in the year to date. Target is unchanged at $2.60.

SITEMINDER LIMITED ((SDR)) was downgraded to Hold from Add by Morgans. B/H/S: 4/1/0

SiteMinder’s 1H revenue grew by 13.9% to $104.5m, missing both the Morgans and consensus forecasts. Property subscribers grew by 2.7k to 47.2k, slightly below forecasted growth, while transaction annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth accelerated to 37%, driven by the Smart Platform ramp-up, explains the broker. Despite a weaker 1H25, the broker anticipates a stronger second half, supported by Smart Platform’s impact on transaction products and ARPU expansion. Unchanged management guidance is for 30% organic revenue growth and underlying EBITDA profitability in FY25.  Morgans’ target price is reduced to $6.40 from $6.50, and the rating downgraded to Hold from Add due to a perceived lack of catalysts prior to full-year results in August.

SMARTGROUP CORPORATION LIMITED ((SIQ)) was downgraded to Hold from Add by Morgans. B/H/S: 4/2/0

Smartgroup Corp reported a strong FY24 result, in Morgans’ opinion, with profit (NPATA) increasing by 14.6% to $72.4m, slightly ahead of expectations. The 2H performance was considered solid, with revenue up by 5.9% and EBITDA increasing by 11% from H1. The company benefited from solid lease demand, explains the broker, with novated leases growing by 15%, while salary packages increased by 10.7%. Management’s outlook for the near-term remains positive, supported by strong contract wins and demand, though the eventual ending of the EV policy in March 2025 may limit future growth potential, according to the analysts. Morgans raises its target price to $8.95 from $8.65, and downgrades to Hold rating from Buy given the upcoming EV policy change.

TELSTRA GROUP LIMITED ((TLS)) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie. B/H/S: 3/2/1

Further to the half-year results, Macquarie believes there is more upside to come from Telstra Group from rationalisation of costs. Capital management is also in train given the $750m on-market buyback, with messaging from the company conveying confidence it can maintain investment in digital infrastructure while continuing cost reductions. Noting the spread to the 10-year bond yield, Macquarie downgrades on valuation grounds to Neutral from Outperform. Estimates for EPS in FY25 and FY26 are downgraded by -3%. Target is reduced to $3.93 from $4.30.

 

Earnings forecast

Listed below are the companies that have had their forecast current year earnings raised or lowered by the brokers last week. The qualification is that the stock must be covered by at least two brokers. The table shows the previous forecast on an earnings per share basis, the new forecast, and the percentage change.