I’d love to be able to argue that sure I missed my 6000 call on the S&P/ASX 200 index but when you account for dividends and franking credits, we still beat term deposits.
That’s the story for next Saturday but let me argue the case that the fact I missed out on looking like the market guru others think I am, heightens the chances that 2015 will be a damn great year for stocks.
As of Monday last week, our market’s showing on an international basis was unimpressive. CommSec’s Craig James did the numbers and revealed that the All Ordinaries index was up by just 1.1% over 2014 (ASX 200 +1.7%), ranking Aussie shares in 44th position of 73 global share markets. Of course, that leaves out dividends so the real gain was closer to 5% without franking credits and it was a win over term deposits.
What happened?
You could just say Switzer doesn’t know what he’s talking about, despite predicting stocks would go up from early 2009. If you believed me, you’d be up over 100%, including dividends, via a simple S&P/ASX 200 ETF.
Anyway, all year I’ve been arguing and harping that every dip was a buying opportunity.
As this chart from the Yahoo! Finance website shows, there were nine decent dips this year – three biggies too – and dip buyers could’ve really cleaned up, even if they only bought into half of the bounce-backs per dip.
This 6000-call was never about the number but about the faith I have for stocks at the moment. And I suspect that “moment” will last for at least two years. If I have reason to change my mind, you’ll be the first to hear about it.
Investors like Warren Buffett can never be certain and spot on about the timing of a stock price spike but he can be certain about the company’s potential to eventually deliver one.
The year 2014 brought with it curve balls someone like me could’ve easily missed. The big freeze in the US delayed the recovery there, which delayed the timing of the first interest rate rise and therefore the fall in our dollar, which was important to my 6000 call.
Putin’s Ukraine madness hurt the global recovery via the impact on Europe and this was not good for commodity demand and companies, such as BHP and Rio. China and Japan didn’t help either but as we look at 2015, these two economies are now more positioned for growth, which will be a plus for stocks.
That was then, this is now
Why will 2015 be better than 2014? Try these:
- Our dollar will keep falling and will boost dollar-sensitive companies.
- The Abbott Government will have to stimulate the economy or they’re political dead ducks.
- The RBA is on the sidelines and could even cut interest rates but I hope not.
- The US is in the third year of a Presidency and history says Wall Street goes up in these years by as much as 17% on average.
- The European Central Bank has to come up with a stimulation play of a QE3-kind or there will be another recession there.
- There’ll be a huge plus from the lower oil price. Right now, it’s spooking stock markets because speculators are taking the oil price down too low. Saudi Arabia’s oil boss says it’s not so much demand or supply but excessive speculation that has brought oil’s price down this far and that’s why he won’t cut supply. That aside, I liked the views of top global CEOs when it comes to the cost implications of a lower oil price. Dave Cote from Honeywell told CNBC’’s Jim Cramer that, “all countries will get a boost from lower energy costs.”And then Klaus Kleinfeld, the CEO of Alcoa, was singing from the same hymn book as Cote.
It won’t be just big businesses that benefit. It will be all businesses, except energy companies. Then there’s the positive consumer effect! I was driving with a family member on Christmas Day and he pointed out that the petrol price at a service station that has been bleeding us for decades was flogging fuel at $1.12 a litre!
This will translate into consumer demand here and everywhere when it’s needed like never before!
What’s our relationship?
My job for you via the Switzer Super Report is to share my thoughts on what could make you money or take it from you. The big picture tells me now that we should be keeping the faith on stocks, even if their returns don’t match our calendar year expectations or our returns hopes.
I have to get you insights from smart people like Charlie Aitken, Geoff Wilson, Paul Rickard and the like and I reckon they’ll be mostly right but occasionally they’ll have a miss. They’re finance experts, not gods.
I expected my people to tip a falling dollar and we did. I wanted us to recommend that you buy the likes of CSL, Resmed, Macquarie, etc. ahead of the dollar falling and we did. And I think we should have been talking about the wisdom of having some exposure to foreign stocks, especially before the dollar fell. We did that too.
Finally, we should be explaining how you get the most out of your SMSF and super generally and I know we’re doing a great job in that space.
All up, I’m proud of what the Switzer Super Report has delivered, even if my 6000 call has been an annoying hiccup but I’ll wager this time next year I won’t have to be making any excuses.
By the way, this is CommSec’s view on next year: “The Aussie share market is expected to recover in 2015. Valuations are favourable with the price-earnings ratio at two-year lows. Company balance sheets are in good shape and the combination of low oil prices, low interest rates and a weaker Aussie dollar will provide momentum to the economy. CommSec expects the All Ords/ASX 200 to reach 6100 points by the end of 2015.”
And Morgan’s chief economist, Michael Knox, even now thinks fair value for our stock market is around 5800. It’s a pity the real world won’t conform to theory!
One last point on lower oil prices
According to Nomura, “Every $10 per barrel fall in the oil price can boost India’s GDP growth by 10 basis points, lower consumer inflation by 20 basis points and improve current account and fiscal balance by 0.5% and 0.1% of GDP. Lower oil prices also support the rupee.” (NDTV Profit 4/12/14)
This will happen not only in India but in every country of the world and will underpin a very good 2015.
Have a great New Year!
Important: This content has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual. It does not constitute formal advice. Consider the appropriateness of the information in regards to your circumstances.