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RBA to remain on hold after jobs data

The central bank is likely to leave interest rates on hold after the release of better-than-expected jobs figures, economists say.

The unemployment rate was steady at 5.8 per cent in April, with the total number of people with jobs rising by 14,200 to 11.573 million.

The median forecast from economists was for an unemployment rate of 5.9 per cent, with 8,000 more people with jobs.

National Australia Bank head of research Peter Jolly said the data raised questions about whether the country had already experienced a peak in unemployment.

“It’s good news all round,” he said.

“For the Reserve Bank of Australia, I don’t think it will change the outlook to keep rates on hold for a while.”

He said the increase in full-time work had come on the back of strong jobs gains the previous month.

“It demonstrates the labour market was at its weakest in the third and fourth quarter of last year.”

RBC Capital Markets senior economist Su-Lin Ong said the unemployment rate had given the market another nice surprise.

“Employment generation is really stepping up pace here,” she said.

“It will prompt further discussion about whether the unemployment rate has peaked for this cycle.

“That will get more attention given the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rhetoric on the labour market; its discussion has turned a little bit more positive.”

Ms Ong said these figures alone would not change the outlook for the RBA’s cash rate.

“The market is a little bit complacent about how long the cash rate will remain unchanged,” she said.

“If we get continued employment generation and ongoing improvement in the leading indicators for employment, then the RBA would be unlikely to stay on hold.”

Commonwealth Bank chief economist Michael Blythe said the figures provided further encouraging signs that the labour market was turning for the better.

“If so, it’s a pretty positive indication for the economy,” Mr Blythe said.

“It tells you the growth transition is pretty much on track and the labour market is doing better than most people were expecting to see.”

Mr Blythe said the employment backdrop for the upcoming May Budget was now looking better than previous estimates had indicated.

“It should have a positive impact on job security fears and feed into consumer confidence,” he said.