My colleague Paul Rickard [1] has deconstructed the Treasurer’s super proposals, which are allegedly targeted at the “fabulously wealthy” but clearly it will affect those with, say, $700,000 with a 20% return per annum or someone on $1 million making 13% and so on.
So when I heard that only 16,000 would be affected, I couldn’t help but brand Mr Swan as an A-grade Super Duper!
Market machinations
Away from super proposals that might never see the light of day – first it has to get through Parliament or Labor has to win the election – let’s focus on what we are seeing locally and internationally that could affect stock prices.
[2]Wall Street did not like the latest jobs report for March, where 200,000 jobs were expected but only 88,000 turned up! As I said in my www.switzer.com.au [3] blog [4] this morning – economists either need new computer models or financial institutions need new economists!
By the way, unemployment fell to 7.6%, so it was not all bad news and the economy did add 268,000 jobs in February and 148,000 jobs in January, so the trend has been good until March.
So let’s quickly spotlight some key issues for stocks:
- I don’t think North Korea will be stupid enough to trigger a war but if something dumb happens, stocks will dive.
- Wall Street agrees with me with the fear index at 14.
- The participation rate in the USA fell to the lowest level since 1979, which might not augur well for US GDP.
- Japan’s $US1.4 trillion QE program will pump up Japanese growth and global growth as well – this is good for stocks.
- March quarter earnings start this week and there is a downbeat expectation but if US companies surprise on the high side, stocks will kick along nicely. Thomson Reuters says the earnings outlook for the current quarter is 1.6% compared to 6.2% last quarter. That’s a weak number. However, if they come in on expectations, the response will be less dramatic as QE remains. By the way, the weak job numbers will cancel out the comments of the San Francisco Fed President John Williams, who suggested that QE could soon be pared back.
- US trade figures indicate less oil imports and more exports, which is a positive sign for US growth.
- The bad job numbers actually helped gold go higher because more QE means more money sloshing around and that makes gold more valuable in the long run.
- Some of the job losses could be structural as the Internet hurts bricks and mortar businesses and service companies access cheap labour abroad. We might all have to get used to higher jobless rates until the global economy is pumping.
- The shallow dip or pullback thesis has a lot of advocates with most saying any slip in stocks will be offset by the stash of cash on the sidelines dying to get into the share market.
- Locally, we get to see more pieces to our economic puzzle, which should help complete the picture to tell us whether things are getting rosier. Job ads, the NAB business survey, Westpac’s consumer sentiment and the jobless rate on Thursday will be really important revelations this week.
I remain a stocks lover for 2013 and expect some shallow buying opportunities as the year drags on, which are more important than the Super Duper’s changes!
Important: This content has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual. It does not constitute formal advice. Consider the appropriateness of the information in regards to your circumstances.
Also in the Switzer Super Report
- Paul Rickard: Still a super slug – if ever legislated [1]
- Margaret Lomas: Finding good tenants means finding a good property manager [5]
- Barries Dunstan: Residential alternatives [6]
- Penny Pryor: Auction clearance rates – more hit the market [7]
- Rudi Filapek-Vandyck: Weekly broker wrap – BLY, DOW and ILU all upgraded [8]