Key points
- The market is expecting a profit of about $700 million, a huge turnaround from last year’s $2.8 billion loss, when Qantas reports on Thursday.
- Woodside brings out its interim result on Wednesday, and is expected to report a profit about 40% lower than last year’s interim result, at about $US670 million.
- On Friday, Medibank Private will report its debut full-year profit and is considered likely to beat its prospectus forecast for a profit of $258 million, mostly on the back of efficiency gains and one-off reserve releases.
It’s week four in the FY15 reporting season, and the flow of results is now significant enough for the first broad summaries of activity to come out. The theme remains that any disappointments will be punished heavily, while dividend increases in particular make the market happy.
The themes so far
According to Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy and chief economist at AMP Capital, 51% of results reported so far have beaten expectations, and 61% of companies have lifted their profits from a year ago. However, Oliver says the good results often come out early in the season: at the same point in the February interim-results reporting season, those numbers were 60% and 76% respectively.
Oliver says dividends continue to surge, with 68% of companies so far raising their dividends and only 8% cutting them. Other key themes are ongoing weakness among resources and mining services companies, slowing profit growth for the banks at the same time they are raising more capital and ongoing cost control.
This week, reporting season moves into overdrive, with one-quarter of the S&P/ASX 200 Index companies scheduled to report results between Monday and Wednesday alone.
The commodity players
A theme this week will be results from some of the large commodity producers, with the likes of Fortescue Metals, Newcrest, Woodside and Santos all set to deliver results scarified by falling commodity prices.
The commodities theme kicked off today with goldminer Newcrest, announced a better than expected $515 million underlying profit, which was 19% better than the $432 million underlying profit recorded for the 2014 financial year.
Newcrest also ditched its full-year dividend – it has not announced a dividend since February 2013 – and Fortescue, which reports its full-year result on Thursday, is expected to do the same. The market is expecting a real shocker from Fortescue, with a profit slump of more than 80% predicted.
Woodside brings out its interim result on Wednesday, and is expected to report a profit about 40% lower than last year’s interim result, at about $US670 million. Given that the price of oil has halved, this will be about the best Woodside can do: the company’s June quarter report showed a 35% plunge in the Japanese crude oil import price that drives LNG revenue, and combined with a drop in production from both the North West Shelf and Pluto, Woodside’s revenue from gas exports plunged 48% in the June quarter, contributing to a 36% slide in total revenue. The market also knows that an electrical fault at the North West Shelf venture unexpectedly shut down LNG and domestic production in May, while a planned maintenance shutdown reduced output at Pluto.
Likewise, Santos’ interim profit (reported on Friday) is likely to be down by as much as 90% on an underlying profit basis.
The highlights
The biggest profit of the week will come from Wesfarmers, which reports full-year numbers on Thursday. The market is expecting a profit of about $2.4 billion from Wesfarmers, powered mainly by Bunnings and Coles.
Possibly the highlight of the week will be Qantas’ full-year result, which also appears on Thursday: the market is expecting a profit of about $700 million, a huge turnaround from last year’s $2.8 billion loss. Even that may prove to be a conservative estimate, with Qantas’ yield growth and cost cutting running ahead of expectations. Even more radically, the market expects the first dividend from Qantas since June 2009.
On Friday, Medibank Private will report its debut full-year profit free from government ownership. The company is considered likely to beat its prospectus forecast for a profit of $258 million, mostly on the back of efficiency gains and one-off reserve releases.
QBE Insurance reports its interim result on Tuesday, and is expected to deliver a first-half profit of about $US470 million.
While the miners and energy players – and the services companies that work for them – continue to produce some fairly gruesome numbers, strong profit increases are expected from stocks such as Asciano, IT consultancies SMS Management & Technology and Data#3, gambling perennial Tatts Group and agribusiness star Select Harvests.
Here is the schedule for major companies reporting full-year June 30 results this week, as the season starts to get into full swing. Consensus analysts’ earnings per share (EPS) and dividend per share (DPS) estimates come from FN Arena, unless otherwise stated.
Tuesday 18 August
Asciano (AIO) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 40.2 cents, +53.8%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 18.7 cents, +31.5%
Cardno (CDD) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 18.4 cents, –64.6%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 19.8 cents, –44.9%
Challenger (CGF) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 54.9 cents, –17.2%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 29.6 cents, +13.8%
GWA Group (GWA) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 14.1 cents, +131.1%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 1 cent, –81.8%
Logicamms (LCM) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 12.9 cents, +3.6%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 7.5 cents, +36.4%
(Estimates collated by Thomson Reuters)
Legend Corporation (LGD) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 3.5 cents, +12.9%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 1.8 cents, unchanged
Monadelphous (MND) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 115.1 cents, –27.7%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 90.1 cents, –26.8%
Mt. Gibson Iron (MGX) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): –13.1 cents, versus 8.8 cents FY14
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 0.8 cents, –86.7%
Seven West Media (SWM) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 3.8 cents, –74.7%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 9.9 cents, –17.3%
Sonic Healthcare (SHL) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 93.2 cents, –3.1%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 67 cents, unchanged
Sydney Airports (SYD) Interim
Consensus earnings per share (EPS):
Consensus dividend per share (DPS):
Tissue Therapies (TIS) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): –2.9 cents, versus –3.3 cents FY14
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): nil, unchanged
Tox Free Solutions (TOX) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 17.9 cents, +9.9%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 7.8 cents, +30%
Wednesday 19 August
Ardent Leisure (AAD) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 10.8 cents, –10.6%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 12.7 cents, –2.2%
Arrium (ARI) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): –11.5 cents, versus 15.2 cents FY14
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): nil, versus 9 cents FY14
Aveo (AOG) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 11.7 cents, +97.7%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 3.7 cents, –7.9%
Decmil Group (DCG) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 23 cents, –26.3%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 13 cents, unchanged
Federation Centres (FDC) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 18.9 cents, –38.8%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 16.9 cents, +7.6%
iiNet (IIN) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 43.6 cents, +11.4%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 24.7 cents, +12.3%
Recall Holdings (REC) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 23.7 cents, –12.3%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 16.3 cents, +103.7%
Ridley Corporation (RIC) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 6.8 cents, +12%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 3.5 cents, unchanged
SEEK (SEK) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 58.4 cents, +1.2%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 36.4 cents, +21.2%
SMS Management & Technology (SMX) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 25.1 cents, +38.6%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 14.6 cents, +16.5%
Stockland Group (SGP) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 26.9 cents, +18.1%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 24 cents, unchanged
Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 19.9 cents, versus –15.6 cents FY14
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 12.8 cents, –1.5%
360 Capital Industrial Fund (TIX) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 22.8 cents, +10.7%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 21 cents, +13.5%
360 Capital Office Fund (TOF) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 19 cents, prospectus forecast 19 cents
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 17 cents, prospectus forecast 17 cents
Villaworld (VLW) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 24 cents, +10%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 15 cents, unchanged
Wellcom Group (WLL) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 24 cents, +3.9%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 21 cents, +7.7%
Thursday 20 August
ASX (ASX) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 208.9 cents, +5.2%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 188.2 cents, +5.7%
Beacon Lighting (BLX) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 7 cents, +25.9%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 4 cents, +185.7%
(Estimates collated by Thomson Reuters)
Brambles (BXB) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 39.9 US cents, +6.5%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 25.9 US cents, –4.2%
Collection House (CLH) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 17 cents, +15.6%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 9 cents, +12.5%
Data#3 (DTL) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 6.6 cents, +35%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 5.9 cents, +31.1%
ERM Power (EPW) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 13.2 cents, versus –10.6 cents FY14
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 12.3 cents, +2.5%
Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 11.7 US cents, –86.7%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 3.4 US cents, –83.1%
Industria REIT (IDR) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 15.6 cents, +74.1%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 16.4 cents, –8.4%
Lifestyle Communities (LIC) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 18 cents, +46.5%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 1.3 cents, versus nil in FY14
(Estimates collated by Thomson Reuters)
Medibank Private (MPL) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 9.9 cents, prospectus forecast 9.4 cents
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 5.1 cents, prospectus forecast 4.9 cents
MMA Offshore (MRM) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 14.1 cents, –25%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 6.9 cents, –44.7%
Origin Energy (ORG) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 59.1 cents, +23%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 50 cents, unchanged
Qantas Airways (QAN) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 32.8 cents, versus –128.5 cents in FY14
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 2.9 cents, versus nil in FY14
QUBE Holdings (QUB) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 10.3 cents, +11.6%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 5.9 cents, +14.8%
RCR Tomlinson (RCR) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 29.8 cents, –6.7%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 11.3 cents, +12.5%
Simonds Group (SIO) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 14 cents, prospectus forecast 13.47 cents
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 5 cents, prospectus forecast 8.75 cents
Tassal Group (TGR) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 29.8 cents, +6.2%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 13.5 cents, +17.1%
Tatts Group (TTS) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 18.1 cents, +28.1%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 16.4 cents, +21.6%
Webjet (WEB) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 23.4 cents, –3.6%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 13.8 cents, +2.5%
Wesfarmers (WES) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 218.8 cents, –6.8%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 218.9 cents, +15.2%
Friday 21 August
Coca-Cola Amatil (CCL) Interim
DUET Group (DUE) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 5.9 cents, –61.7%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 17.7 cents, +4%
Insurance Australia Group (IAG) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 40.4 cents, –28%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 28.9 cents, –26%
Iluka Resources (ILU) Interim
iProperty Group (IPP) Interim
Select Harvests (SHV) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 79.9 cents, +59.1%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 29.5 cents, +47.5%
Santos (STO) Interim
Sims Metal Management (SGM) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 50.2 cents, versus –43.5 cents in FY14
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 27.3 cents, +173%
Super Retail Group (SUL) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 49.8 cents, –9.7%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 39 cents, –2.5%
Transpacific Industries (TPI) Full-year
Consensus earnings per share (EPS): 2.2 cents, +120%
Consensus dividend per share (DPS): 1.3 cents, –16%
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