For the week ended Friday, July 11, 2025, FNArena tracked nine upgrades and twelve downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.
Nine upgrades and twelve downgrades
Uranium miner Boss Energy received separate rating downgrades from Ord Minnett and Macquarie to Hold or equivalent from Buy following a share price rise of more than 70% in 2025.
Macquarie expects ASX-listed uranium equities to remain closely correlated to the daily spot price until term pricing shows improvement, potentially in September or October.
The Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT), managed by Sprott Asset Management, recently launched an upsized capital raise, securing US$200m to purchase physical uranium.
With this buying program nearing completion this week, the broker anticipates spot prices may need to retreat to levels more attractive for utility-driven carry trades.
Short positions in Boss are unwinding in an orderly fashion, noted Ord Minnett, and have declined to 14% of shares from a peak level of 26%. As any chance of a short squeeze sending the price as high as $6.00 per share has passed for now, the broker last week lowered its target to $4.10 from $6.00.
Lifestyle Communities’ average target fell by -37% following an unfavourable ruling by a Victorian tribunal that deferred management fees (DMF) contained in its residential services agreements were not legally enforceable in that state.
Ord Minnett and Citi downgraded their ratings to Hold or equivalent and lowered their respective targets to $5.35 from $8.20 and to $4.50 from $9.00.
Ord Minnett expects the company will remain within its banking covenants despite the setback and sees no need for a capital raise, though Citi noted an elevated risk around the interest cover ratio due to potential short-term softness in sales.
While uranium developer Deep Yellow received the largest percentage earnings forecast downgrade in the FNArena database, the FY25 forecast numbers involved are very small.
In fact, Macquarie raised its target price for Deep Yellow by 21% to $2.05 after assuming a capital raise at a higher equity price level to reflect improving market conditions.
Pilbara Minerals features second on the earnings downgrade list below with fellow lithium miner IGO Ltd in third place, after Macquarie adjusted estimates when previewing fourth quarter results for critical minerals companies under coverage.
Considered as a relative safe haven, IGO Ltd remains the broker’s preferred lithium exposure while Pilbara Minerals offers strong leverage to lithium upside. Both remain Outperform rated by Macquarie.
For IGO, the analyst’s FY25 spodumene production forecast for Greenbushes of 377kt is in line with the consensus estimate, while the broker’s prediction for fourth quarter FY25 spodumene shipments for Pilbara Minerals of 197kt is 7% ahead of consensus.
Tourism Holdings Rentals and Domino’s Pizza Enterprises were next with falls in average earnings forecasts of around -20% apiece.
Ord Minnett noted yet another profit downgrade for Tourism Holdings as the unwind of the covid-induced recreation vehicle super cycle continues.
Management guided to FY25 profit in the range of $27-34.4m compared to the consensus expectation for $33m.
Morgans explained manufacturing divisions for the company in Australia and New Zealand faced a challenging second half of FY25, as production volumes declined due to efforts to right-size manufacturing and overall inventory levels.
Additionally, a sharp fall in demand for inbound travel to the US weighed on US Rental revenue, noted the broker.
Regarding Domino’s, here Morgans lowered its target to $22.20 from $29.40 and UBS to $22 from $25, though both brokers can now see positives emerging.
UBS upgraded to Buy from Neutral based on valuation support after a further share price fall when the company announced its CEO will be stepping down.
This broker now feels the risk reward ratio is more attractive given confirmation regarding FY25 underlying profit and the company’s solid balance sheet. It’s also felt cost savings will be accelerated, providing greater support to sales and earnings for both the company and its franchisees.
Following an earnings call with analysts, it was evident to Morgans the Domino’s turnaround is set to accelerate under Executive Chairman Jack Cowin’s leadership on the back of cost-out initiatives.
While sales led earnings growth is vital for long-term value creation, the broker pointed to the recent positive outcome for Collins Foods, showing cost-led growth can be just as positive for the share price.
In the good books
Upgrades
AMP LIMITED ((AMP)) was upgraded to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 4/1/0
Ord Minnett upgrades AMP to Buy from Hold after raising its target price to $1.63 from $1.52 on valuation grounds and an improved earnings outlook.
The broker believes legal risks are already reflected in the AMP share price, the core business is showing signs of improvement, and the stock continues to trade at a significant valuation discount to the ASX200 Index.
CENTURIA INDUSTRIAL REIT ((CIP)) was upgraded to Hold from Trim by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/3/0
A Property sector update by Morgans reveals a preference for data centres, retail, and private credit due to more resilient leasing trends and earnings visibility.
The broker remains cautious on office and industrial due to softening rental spreads and ongoing leasing incentives. Sydney industrial and office markets have displayed varied performance in yields and vacancies during June, notes Morgans.
Overall, June quarter valuations show modest book value gains, as rental growth has largely offset cap rate expansion, explain the analysts.
Declining interest rate swap curves are easing funding pressures, with falling interest costs expected to become a tailwind for FFO and improve transaction activity as yield spreads normalise.
The broker’s target for Centuria Industrial REIT rises to $3.25 from $2.85 and the rating is upgraded to Hold from Trim.
The industrial and logistics sector remains resilient, explains Morgans, supported by strong leasing fundamentals as expiring leases reset to higher market rents.
In this context, Centuria Industrial REIT’s portfolio is seen as well positioned, benefiting from its strategic exposure to infill locations.
CENTURIA OFFICE REIT ((COF)) was upgraded to Hold from Trim by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/2/2
A Property sector update by Morgans reveals a preference for data centres, retail, and private credit due to more resilient leasing trends and earnings visibility (see Centuria Industrial REIT above).
Management at Centuria Office REIT expects lower levels of office supply, as development feasibilities struggle against higher construction costs. The broker’s target rises to $1.14 from $1.05. Upgrade to Hold from Trim.
DOMINO’S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED ((DMP)) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 3/2/1
UBS upgrades Domino’s Pizza Enterprises to Buy from Neutral, citing accelerated cost savings, reaffirmed FY25 earnings guidance, and valuation support following recent share price weakness.
The broker notes the CEO’s departure was driven by a board directive to expedite cost savings, particularly in IT, with potential opex reductions of -$2040m and lower capex.
These savings are expected to support sales, increase franchisee profitability, and boost group earnings (EBITDA). Despite remaining downside risk to FY2627 earnings versus consensus, UBS believes this is now priced into market expectations.
Management reiterated its confidence in FY25 underlying profit guidance and confirmed its balance sheet remains solid, with no capital raise expected.
UBS lowers its target price to $22 from $25.
DEXUS INDUSTRIA REIT ((DXI)) was upgraded to Accumulate from Trim by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/1/0
A Property sector update by Morgans reveals a preference for data centres, retail, and private credit due to more resilient leasing trends and earnings visibility (see Centuria Industrial REIT above).
For Dexus Industria REIT, the target rises to $3.00 from $2.65 and the rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Trim. Morgans expects the industrial portfolio will deliver positive net property income growth, albeit largely offset by higher interest costs.
EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED ((EVN)) was upgraded to Hold from Trim by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/3/3
In a preview of Evolution Mining’s 4Q25 result, Morgans highlights its expectation of gold and copper production slightly below consensus, and cost and capex higher.
For FY25, the broker forecasts gold and copper production, and capex at the mid-point of FY25 guidance, but cost above the guidance range.
The analyst lifted the capex estimate in the medium to long term, and reduced production and cash flow forecasts at Red Lake.
Target price lowered to $7.40 from $8.00. Rating upgraded to Hold from Trim.
HUB24 LIMITED ((HUB)) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 3/3/0
UBS upgrades Hub24 to Buy from Neutral, with a rise in the target price to $105 from $74.
The analyst believes there is a long runway for specialty platforms (SPPs) from the under-advised mass affluent market and high-net-worth segments, which are gradually moving to a platform basis.
Hub24 is viewed as having better “prospects” than Netwealth ((NWL)) due to twice the rate of adviser growth, a higher share of the market, and better operating leverage due to lower margins.
Hub24 also has better platform benchmarking scores and managed account functions.
The broker’s EPS forecasts are raised by 4% for FY25, and by 14% for both FY26 and FY27. UBS estimates funds under administration will reach around $282bn, some 20% above consensus.
PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED ((PTM)) was upgraded to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 1/1/0
Bell Potter notes the renegotiated merger terms between Platinum Asset Management and L1 Capital ((LSF)) advanced to a merger implementation deed and provided more details about cost synergies and some key figures for L1 Capital.
The terms are considered positive for the company, with combined business growth likely to rise to 2.5% from -9%.
The merged company expects to realise $20m of synergies, which together with Platinum’s $10-15m, would be around 25-30% of the run rate costs of -$134m.
EPS forecast lifted by 1.2% for FY25, 16.2% for FY26 and 66.8% for FY27. Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold. Target rises to 60c from 49c.
REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED ((RRL)) was upgraded to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/4/2
Morgans notes Regis Resources’ gold production in 4Q25 of 28.1koz at Tropicana and 59.3koz at Duketon beats its forecasts of 25.4koz and 57.3koz, respectively.
Cash at the end of the quarter was 19% ahead of its forecast and 15% above consensus. Ahead of the 4Q25 result, the broker trimmed the group cost forecast to $2,476/oz vs guidance of $2,590/oz.
Target price $5.20. Rating upgraded to Accumulate from Hold.
In the bad books
Downgrades
A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED ((A2M)) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 2/4/1
Citi has turned incrementally cautious on a2 Milk Co for several reasons including weaker Chinese import volumes and elevated air freight volumes implying short-term product shortages.
Other reasons include relatively dated stage 3 formula inventory and profit warning by Feihe. The broker believes some of the factors may reflect timing issues with dragon babies yet to move to the stage 3 formula stage but it is still cautious ahead of FY25 result on August 18.
No changes to forecasts but rating downgraded to Neutral from Buy. Target unchanged at $8.20.
BOSS ENERGY LIMITED ((BOE)) was downgraded to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett and to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/3/1
Ord Minnett downgrades Boss Energy to Hold from Buy, with the stock having rallied from a low in April of $2.30 and short positions unwinding to 14% of the shares from a peak of 26%, the analyst explains.
Marking to market near-term U3O8 price and the AUD/USD rate, the analyst lowers the target price to $4.10 from $6, removing the previous premium for the short squeeze and $0.40 per share due to the higher AUD against the March forecast.
The broker notes Boss has extended the repayment of its 100klb uranium loan to 30%-owned Alta Mesa and lent another US$3.6m, with Alta Mesa not viewed as cash flow positive yet.
Sales from Honeymoon in the September quarter may benefit from a higher U3O8 spot price, Ord Minnett notes.
Macquarie has downgraded Boss Energy to Neutral from Outperform on a tactical call due to the rise in the share price, up 70%-plus for the calendar year to date, and is pricing in a uranium price of US$75/lb.
The analyst flags the U308 price might consolidate lower by -8% to -10% once the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (Sprott) stops buying in the spot market in the next week or so, to levels around US$70/lb where utilities will re-enter the carry trade.
With management having announced on June 18 FY25 guidance production of 850klbs, the broker lowers the 4Q25 drummed volume to 375klbs due to the flagged maintenance.
Until there is a rise in U308 term pricing in Sept/Oct, Macquarie believes uranium stocks will be subject to spot price moves.
The target price slips by -3.2% to $4.45 due to a change in the valuation. The broker’s EPS estimate is tweaked 3% and 3.7% higher for FY26/FY27.
COBRAM ESTATE OLIVES LIMITED ((CBO)) was downgraded to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/1/0
Ord Minnett downgrades Cobram Estate Olives to Accumulate from Buy while lifting the target price to $2.66 from $2.23 due to higher short-term earnings and local cash flows.
The company has announced a 2025 Australian harvest of 15.3m litres, including third-party volumes, which is within the usual 15% variability due to agricultural impacts, the analyst explains.
The harvest is sufficient for feedstock to the higher-margin brands and products for FY26, with management’s earnings (EBITDA) guidance of around $115m better than the analyst’s previous forecast by 5%.
The robust nature of pricing suggests the company’s brands are resilient to increased foreign competition and price discounting.
DEXUS CONVENIENCE RETAIL REIT ((DXC)) was downgraded to Hold from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/1/0
A Property sector update by Morgans reveals a preference for data centres, retail, and private credit due to more resilient leasing trends and earnings visibility (see Centuria Industrial REIT above).
For Dexus Convenience Retail REIT, the target falls to $3.00 from $3.20 and the rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate.
GOODMAN GROUP ((GMG)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/2/0
A Property sector update by Morgans reveals a preference for data centres, retail, and private credit due to more resilient leasing trends and earnings visibility (see Centuria Industrial REIT above).
While acknowledging a great business, Morgans feels the valuation for Goodman Group is a stretch and downgrades to Hold from Accumulate. The target rises to $37.20 from $36.65.
JUMBO INTERACTIVE LIMITED ((JIN)) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 3/3/0
Citi lowers its target for Jumbo Interactive to $11.30 from $14.60 and downgrades to Neutral from Buy due to downside risk to lottery turnover.
In particular, the analyst is concerned by a weaker like-for-like Powerball performance and limited impact expected from upcoming game changes.
The broker lowers earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by -7% in FY25, -4% in FY26, and -6% in FY27, placing estimates between -5% to -7% below consensus across the forecast period.
Jumbo’s market share dipped to 11.7% in 2H25 but Citi expects a rebound in FY26, assuming a normalised jackpot cycle and higher marketing spend.
Despite near-term pressure, Citi suggests market share concerns may be overplayed and notes current valuation at a -12% discount to the Small Ordinaries Index.
LIFESTYLE COMMUNITIES LIMITED ((LIC)) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy by Citi and to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/3/0
Citi downgrades Lifestyle Communities to Neutral, High Risk from Buy on the back of the VCAT decision and lowers the target to $4.50.
The analyst highlights management intends to continue to charge deferred management fees until a VCAT order is received but removes all anticipated fees from earnings forecasts and the stock’s valuation.
In 1H2025, sales have reached 98 and the LVR covenant at 65% is unlikely to be broken according to Citi, but the interest cover ratio is at risk due to uncertainty around ongoing sales at this stage.
Ord Minnett lowers its target for Lifestyle Communities to $5.35 from $9.83 and downgrades to Hold from Accumulate after an unfavourable Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal (VCAT) ruling.
The company’s deferred management fees (DMFs) under its residential services agreements were deemed unenforceable.
The broker now anticipates write-downs of the DMF book value, reimbursement obligations, and margin compression in development earnings.
The broker’s assumptions include a -$250m DMF write-off, -$600m cash flow reduction over ten years, and -$50m in resident fee refunds.
The company will likely remain covenant-compliant without requiring new capital, suggests Ord Minnett.
NEWMONT CORPORATION REGISTERED ((NEM)) was downgraded to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 5/0/0
Morgans has previewed Newmont Corp’s 2Q25 result, noting its gold production and cost forecast is slightly below consensus while copper production is in line. The broker’s adjusted EBITDA forecast for 2Q is -10% below consensus.
The analyst made minor revisions to short and long-term estimates and marked to market gold price forecasts.
Target price lifts to $103 from $97. Rating downgraded to Accumulate from Buy.
QUALITAS LIMITED ((QAL)) was downgraded to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/0/0
A Property sector update by Morgans reveals a preference for data centres, retail, and private credit due to more resilient leasing trends and earnings visibility (see Centuria Industrial REIT above).
Qualitas is well positioned to maintain its share of the expanding market for private credit-backed multi-unit metro residential developments, highlights Morgans, as major banks continue to scale back their exposure to this segment of Commercial Real Estate lending.
The target rises to $3.80 from $3.35 and the rating is downgraded to Accumulate from Buy.
SANTOS LIMITED ((STO)) was downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 4/1/0
Morgan Stanley marked-to-market June quarter forecasts for energy companies and following revisions to oil and gas forecasts, and AUD/USD exchange rate. The broker lifted Brent oil price forecast by 4-6% until the March 2027 quarter, before lowering the forecast for June 2027 quarter by -7%.
The Henry Hub natural gas price forecast was lowered until the March 2026 quarter and upgraded by 1-4% thereafter, while JKM LNG price forecasts were mixed in the near term, before 9% increases later.
The AUD/USD exchange rate forecast was lifted by 3% for the September and December quarters, and left unchanged after that.
For Santos, the marked-to-market increased the FY25 EPS forecast by 6% and FY26 by 13%. The broker’s FY25 production forecast is 91.9MMboe vs guidance of 90-97MMboe.
Target price lifted to $8.80 from $6.92 to reflect the non-binding offer from the XRG consortium. Rating downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight.
Earnings forecast
Listed below are the companies that have had their forecast current year earnings raised or lowered by the brokers last week. The qualification is that the stock must be covered by at least two brokers. The table shows the previous forecast on an earnings per share basis, the new forecast, and the percentage change.
