Lance Lai appeared on Peter Switzer’s TV show “Switzer” on Sky News Business Channel on Wednesday 6 July, which can be viewed here [1]. The following are in depth notes in preparation for the show.
1. US S&P 500: 2,088 (Was 2,091 in 27 April 2016 show, then was 2,090 on 30 Nov 2015)
[2]No change – still range bound within 16%
R = 2,149
S2 = 1,810
Last show in Apr 2016 2,091, Nov 2015: 2,090, now back there 2,088. In 3 shows over 8months , S&P 500 moved 3 points from show to show!
Since April, 6% range
L 27/7 = 2,000
H 8/6 = 2,120
Important Pattern Note: Same Note from last show
Nov 2012 began up trend – Broke in Oct 2014 = 2 years
Oct 2014 to now is only 1 year and 6 months – need to go sideways more.
This is supported by Technicals – no inclination one way or another.
The difference this time is that we have Brexit as a Global focal point. This needs to resolve itself over the coming months.
As revealed by the currency shifts, other economies will benefit from the flight of capital out of the UK.
2. GBP/US% 1.2916
[3]In 19 months since 15 July 2014, market already factored in a potential “Brexit” result, falling 19.5%. This was more of a “hedge”as those with significant interests, de-risk out of the UK early just incase.
In last 3 months, March to June the Pound stabilised, tested and went over 200 day ma of $1.467 on 23 June with 10hrs to the vote.
In 3 months went up over 6%
On day of vote went to 1.5018 – Implying Remain Vote Winning
24 June: 1st day fell to 1.3224 (-13.5%) – the markets were not expecting a Brexit win
2nd day fell to 1.3118 (-14.5%)
Some reprieve for the next 6 days as the Pound stabilised – this is a technical phenomenon. After such large falls, sellers need a rest.
8th day: last night fell to fresh low 1.2796 (-17.4%)
Now recovered to 1.2916
Levels: I have 2 others in between these but for simplicity of the display on the show:
1.2597 = -2.5% lower (-19.2% fr peak)
1.2128 = -6.5% lower (-23.8% fr peak)
1.1822 = -9.2% lower (-27.0% fr peak)
3. A$ to US$0.7455
[4]
April 27th = A on Chart = 76.1c
Went down to below 200 day ma 71.45c = down 6.5%
Now back up 4.2% to 74.5c
No change since last show.
Technical Pattern:
2 years 8 months at top
2 years 9 months down trend
Expect range sideways, with upward bias note 200 day ma pointing up more in last 2 months.
10% Range – still same as last show
R = 78.65
S2 = 70.80
4. ASX 200 – 5,187
[5]
April 27 show = A = 5,187 – it has gone up just 10pt in over 2 months
I was expecting T1 to be hit +2.2%, it did that, hit peak of 5,427 = +4.6% before coming off.
Now retested 200 day ma @ 5,137, already did that recently
Next move back to:
T1 = 5,300 (+2.0%)
T2 = 5,466 (+5.2%)
T3 = 5,556 (even higher)
Amazing: Same place as before: The technicals show we are due for a rebound up, this is the continued set up.
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